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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Snow chance is very low but good chance at a big phased storm or bomb.

If the Euro and GFS are right, it will snow here. People are making it seem like it is hard for it to snow in March. We have seen snow into April. The euro op was really close from hammering the area, even with its wrapped up solution.

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If the Euro and GFS are right, it will snow here. People are making it seem like it is hard for it to snow in March. We have seen snow into April. The euro op was really close from hammering the area, even with its wrapped up solution.

Ant there is no arguing that climatologically speaking it is more difficult to get a notable or better snowfall as march wears on especially middle of it. Yes we can get big snows but 10" or more in march is pretty damn hard to do and most wrapped up storms more likely than not rain on us and areas much further inland stay all snow.

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The energy over Texas that is left over from this weekend's system plays a big role. EURO phases it, GFS doesn't.

Taking into the EURO tendency to hold energy back that "should" raise some eyebrows but seeing the progressive nature of this pattern does lend credibilty to the GFS solution as well, just way too early to focus on any real outcome to be honest

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noaa has three for 1967 when it should be two...time is running out...It could still snow a month from now but good luck with that...

 

I like to leave my expectations low this time of year and hope that we can at least pick up some snow so we

can get past 60" before the season is over. It would be a real waste if we couldn't cash in to some extent

on the anomalous cold so far this month.

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Upton
.

 

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH THE INTERACTION OF PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONTINUES WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF PHASING AND RESULTANT TROUGHING...WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN PAC ENERGY ENTERING THE WESTERN US LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING AROUND A SE SINKING POLAR VORTEX. WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD. A GENERAL SCENARIO OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A POLAR FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD SCENARIO IS PREFERRED...WITH THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW DETERMINING ALL SNOW VS A WINTRY MIX. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED

 

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Anyone else seeing similarities between this system and the last. If we don't get a phase this will likely be pushed south by the anamolous heights over eastern canada. The pv has flexed its muscle all winter, no changes here.

It's one of the reasons why I laughed at people rooting for a weaker solution yesterday. People will grasp onto it because that solution shows the most snow for the area, but it's walking a narrow tight rope.

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Anyone else seeing similarities between this system and the last. If we don't get a phase this will likely be pushed south by the anamolous heights over eastern canada. The pv has flexed its muscle all winter, no changes here.

You bring up a good point steve but we are all going to have to wait till sunday/ monday to see what is really going to happen here. Way too early to say anything besides what climatology or analogs show etc.

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Yeah, we would have to get really lucky with everything going just right to get a 6" inch or greater event in NYC

after March 10th. There have only been 6 times since 1950 that we were able to pull that feat off. Most of our

snows post March 10" have been smaller or mixed events.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html

1956, what a sweet st pattys day weekend. Also, 1982...wtf april, go home, you're drunk.

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It's one of the reasons why I laughed at people rooting for a weaker solution yesterday. People will grasp onto it because that solution shows the most snow for the area, but it's walking a narrow tight rope.

In mid march that narrow tight rope only gets thinner and looser
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Looks like rain to snow for the immediate coast verbatim, all snow inland. Not a bad track at all for the metro but still out in guess-land.

A quick rapidly redeveloping miller B would benefit the coast more IMO with the confluence in SE canada that is still a real possibility. The lack of any meaningful NAO is sort of worrisome as well here
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Anyone else seeing similarities between this system and the last. If we don't get a phase this will likely be pushed south by the anamolous heights over eastern canada. The pv has flexed its muscle all winter, no changes here.

The GFS reminds me of the last storm. High pressure coming down while the low is moving from west to east.

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Little amatuer-ish discussion! lol....


 


Going into the 12z runs, here is what I hope to see happen. This is last night's 00z EURO run @ 120 hours. There are 3 key components. We have the main shortwave that crashes into the Western coast and migrates eastward represented by the DIAMOND. We have the polar jet shortwave that is our cold air deliverer represented by the SQUARE. We also have another player which is the leftover energy from the weekend system represented by the CIRCLE.


 


The square is very important. There are a few options how this could play out, but the BEST solution for us would be if the square energy races out ahead of the incoming storms, because behind this shortwave is where the HP builds in. If it races out ahead we'd get good confluence which could yield a snowier outcome for us.


 


The GFS has been splitting the DIAMOND shortwave into 2 separate pieces of energy. It also isn't showing the interaction between the CIRCLE & DIAMOND pieces of energy which the EURO does. 


 


When viewing the 12z data, focus on these 3 pieces of energy to see their timing, strength, and track. 


 



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This will either phase and then we can talk about precip types or I think this has a big risk of getting sheared out and forced south. Luckily we have more northern stream interaction here so I doubt this gets totally sheared out. We could also get a really late phase like the GGEM shows and end up with virtually nothing.

 

As I said yesterday, give me the bombing dynamic low pressure and I'll take my chances.

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Pretty much, based on the map above, I'd love to see diamond and circle farther stronger and farther west, and square to be stronger and farther east. 

 

HEISENBERG HAS SPOKEN. 

 

REMEMBER MY NAME. 

 

Pretty uncertain as to your analysis.  On principle, obviously.

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This will either phase and then we can talk about precip types or I think this has a big risk of getting sheared out and forced south. Luckily we have more northern stream interaction here so I doubt this gets totally sheared out. We could also get a really late phase like the GGEM shows and end up with virtually nothing.

 

As I said yesterday, give me the bombing dynamic low pressure and I'll take my chances.

 

I believe the 0z UKMET also had something like this, based on the limited maps out there for this time frame.

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Pretty much, based on the map above, I'd love to see diamond and circle farther stronger and farther west, and square to be stronger and farther east. 

 

HEISENBERG HAS SPOKEN. 

 

REMEMBER MY NAME. 

I applaud your attempt at drawing up a map.

 

We actually benefit from that last piece of energy phasing in at the last minute, if it phases in sooner this probably cuts well to our west, before possibly redeveloping.

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I believe the 0z UKMET also had something like this, based on the limited maps out there for this time frame.

Something to note, the 00z GGEM mean looks nothing like the 00z OP.

 

Sub 1000mb low over the Delmarva and then a track right over the benchmark. Looks a bit warm but it's also not quite as dynamic as the ECMWF. Probably a good compromise between the GFS and Euro right now.

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