SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't toss them like you weenies are. They are the best skilled guidance this far out. It's something to keep in mind that's all. Even the euro op solution looks too amped to me, the 500mb pattern with the positive NAO and overall flow before the storm screams progressiveness to me, I think this will be another GFS win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Even the euro op solution looks too amped to me, the 500mb pattern with the positive NAO and overall flow before the storm screams progressiveness to me, I think this will be another GFS win. The difference here though is the ridge out west and the PV sort of lifting out. It's certainly something to watch. It's still too early to really have a feel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 6z gfs is VERY similar to the last storm....hopefully the cold air/PV doesn't press too south this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Huge storm on this run. At 162, 988 low just east of LI. Heavy snow everywhere, including the coast. Inland areas do really well. The coast gets in on the fun at 162 hours when the low bombs out. Before this ,it's slop for the coast. Inland areas, including the coast stays below freezing throughout the event on the Euro. This run was really close to a HECS. Classic track by last night's OP EURO, an absolute snow bomb. Too bad its still a week out and will change a hundred times. Even though it could hurt us in the end, I'll be rooting for a full phase scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The difference here though is the ridge out west and the PV sort of lifting out. It's certainly something to watch. It's still too early to really have a feel though. The West Coast ridge is more amplified on ensemble. So there's much cleaner phase. While the op collapses that ridge and keeps the phasing more sloppy. Also the PV is not as elongated NW to SE on ensemble mean. So that cause more cold air to press southward and blocking this storm coming from further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The West Coast ridge is more amplified on ensemble. So there's much cleaner phase. While the op collapses that ridge and keeps the phasing more sloppy. Also the PV is not as elongated NW to SE on ensemble mean. So that cause more cold air to press southward and blocking this storm coming from further north and west. Wouldn't the op give us a potential for a stronger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1251 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014VALID 12Z MON MAR 10 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 14 2014...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THEALL-TOO FAMILIAR RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN/EASTERNCONUS... RESPECTIVELY. NW ATLANTIC RIDGING IS ALSO FORECAST TORE-BUILD --AGAIN-- BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH ENERGY INITIALLYOVER MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THEN TRAILING/DIGGING ENERGY EXITING THEPAC NW... THIS SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITHSPECIFIC TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF A PERHAPS PHASED OR SEMI-PHASEDSYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXTWEEK... BUT THERE REMAINS MUCH TO BE SORTED OUT. THE USUALSUSPECTS HAVE FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE INTHE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES -- THE 12Z/18Z GFS RUNS WEREQUICKER/WEAKER WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM WHILE THE 12Z ECMWFWAS SLOWER/DEEPER. THE TRENDS OF THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AREABOUT AS CLEAR AS MUD... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AT THE LEAST SIGNALINGTHE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM /WHICH IS EVIDENT SIMPLYFROM THE GENERAL PATTERN/. THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLES OFFER A MORECONSISTENT TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HRS TOWARD A SLOWER AND MOREDEVELOPED SYSTEM AND THAT IS WHERE THE PREFERENCE LIES BY ABOUTWED/D5 ONWARD. TO THE SOUTH... THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER MEXICOHAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY THE RECENT ECMWF RUNS WHILE THE GFS HASBEEN MORE CONSISTENT /BUT WILL IT BE RIGHT?/. IN LIGHT OF THEINTERMEDIATE ENSEMBLES... BEST BET MAY BE TO SPLIT THE GFS/ECMWFDIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT. IN-HOUSE CLUSTERING OF 12Z GEFS/ECENSMEMBERS SHOW THE LARGEST CLUSTER OF 8 CAMPS /13 MEMBERS OUT OF 70/FAVORING THIS INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. just follow the updated pattern... mudslingers http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f144_us.html any more signals.... and the martians will tell me I am jamming them!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 6z gfs is VERY similar to the last storm....hopefully the cold air/PV doesn't press too south this time As of this mornings updated QPF- WPC is not concerned about the storm being too far south for the metro http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Wouldn't the op give us a potential for a stronger storm? The op solution would support a rain/wintry mix going over to snow. The ensemble solution would not see any cold air press southward and just be rain for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Today through sundays model runs i expect to still see plenty of spread. Very complex setup to say the least especially for mid march where we need more of an anomolous cold air source to stay snow on the coast and a near perfect track to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Today through sundays model runs i expect to still see plenty of spread. Very complex setup to say the least especially for mid march where we need more of an anomolous cold air source to stay snow on the coast and a near perfect track to get it. Is a full phase with a low moving northward considered "complex"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Is a full phase with a low moving northward considered "complex"? Getting a full phasing system requires alot of players to align at the right time. You make it sound like its not and is common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This may be the first time all winter that both the GFS ensemble and Euro ensemble means are more amped and further north than the OPs at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is coming in similiar to the 12z run, slightly less amplified though. The overnight Euro was more disorganized aloft and more positively tilted than yesterday afternoon. It was further south with the slp and the precip shield. N and W NY and NNE were buried on yesterday's run and fringed on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Getting a full phasing system requires alot of players to align at the right time. You make it sound like its not and is common Your word not mine........."complex" is used when the players are on the field already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This may be the first time all winter that both the GFS ensemble and Euro ensemble means are more amped and further north than the OPs at the same time. gfs_mslpa_us_24.png gfs-ens_mslpa_us_24.png Have to root for the weaker solution then it comes under the confluence . Man if this thing phases west of the apps it goes to Toronto . I see the OP are south . Just look at how deep the Euro ensembles are at 500 MB and I just say , how does that make it underneath . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Have to root for the weaker solution then it comes under the confluence . Man if this thing phases west of the apps it goes to Toronto . I see the OP are south . Just look at how deep the Euro ensembles are at 500 MB and I just say , how does that make it underneath . It's interesting to also the CMC mean going for a pretty amplified system and similar track to GEFS at this point. But I agree that we don't want this going neg tilt too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's interesting to also the CMC mean going for a pretty amplified system similar track to GEFS at this point. But I agree that we don't want this going neg tilt too fast. 2014030700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_144.png Let`s see how the models trend over the next 48 hours with how this looks once East of the Rockies . Root for a sheared out POS thru the Midwest and " MAYBE " it sneaks under . But I`m not a fan yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Let`s see how the models trend over the next 48 hours with how this looks once East of the Rockies . Root for a sheared out POS thru the Midwest and " MAYBE " it sneaks under . But I`m not a fan yet . Second this, im on the coast and im not expecting an all snow event. We're going to need some solid confluence in SE canada and also hope for a sloppy phase or later phase to save I-95 east from p-type issues IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 150 on the ECMWF is moderate snow north of I-80. The precip comes in two waves on the Euro. the first one coming Wednesday night and then again on Thursday morning and afternoon. Timing since I know it will be asked is from roughly 6PM Wednesday through 6PM Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I know I'm going to get killed for posting this but I don't really care... Only 5 ECMWF members had 6" or more of snow and only 2 had 10" or more. (KEWR) At the same token, 18 members had at least 1"+ QPF. Even at Mt. Pocono the numbers aren't that much better. You have to go all the way up to Ulster/Sullivan Counties before you start to see an increase in snow totals. Just something to keep an eye on. Climo would certainly favor those areas over ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I know I'm going to get killed for posting this but I don't really care... Only 5 ECMWF members had 6" or more of snow and only 2 had 10" or more. (KEWR) At the same token, 18 members had at least 1"+ QPF. Even at Mt. Pocono the numbers aren't that much better. You have to go all the way up to Ulster/Sullivan Counties before you start to see an increase in snow totals. Just something to keep an eye on. Climo would certainly favor those areas over ours. Agree with you on this in that this time of year the upstate regions well away from the coast are more favored for the big snows. Like i said if we were to get the big snows we have to have a nearly perfect track with a well places HP/confluence. Currently im liking west of NJ and sullivan county northward for the big snows with this storm yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Agree with you on this in that this time of year the upstate regions well away from the coast are more favored for the big snows. Like i said if we were to get the big snows we have to have a nearly perfect track with a well places HP/confluence. Currently im liking west of NJ and sullivan county northward for the big snows with this storm yanks Yeah, we would have to get really lucky with everything going just right to get a 6" inch or greater event in NYC after March 10th. There have only been 6 times since 1950 that we were able to pull that feat off. Most of our snows post March 10" have been smaller or mixed events. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Agree with you on this in that this time of year the upstate regions well away from the coast are more favored for the big snows. Like i said if we were to get the big snows we have to have a nearly perfect track with a well places HP/confluence. Currently im liking west of NJ and sullivan county northward for the big snows with this storm yanks Just to give you an idea the snow total at KLGA for the Euro was just under 14" while the ensemble mean was just under 2". Big, big differences here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Snow chance is very low but good chance at a big phased storm or bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Snow chance is very low but good chance at a big phased storm or bomb. and what evidence do you have to back up that statement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yeah, we would have to get really lucky with everything going just right to get a 6" inch or greater event in NYC after March 10th. There have only been 7 times since 1950 that we were able to pull that feat off. Most of our snows post March 10" have been smaller or mixed events. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html noaa has three for 1967 when it should be two...time is running out...It could still snow a month from now but good luck with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 and what evidence do you have to back up that statement ? Large deep trough that's been modeled for some time with alot of energy dumping in. Hard to imagine no storm or a very weak one with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Snow chance is very low but good chance at a big phased storm or bomb. LMAO. At this range any of the model solutions could end up being correct. The 6z nogaps could have the right solution or the Euro ensembles could. It's all a crap shoot. Give this 3 more 12z cycles (Sunday 12z suite) and then we will have a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The energy over Texas that is left over from this weekend's system plays a big role. EURO phases it, GFS doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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