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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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I wouldn't toss them like you weenies are. They are the best skilled guidance this far out. It's something to keep in mind that's all.

Even the euro op solution looks too amped to me, the 500mb pattern with the positive NAO and overall flow before the storm screams progressiveness to me, I think this will be another GFS win.

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Even the euro op solution looks too amped to me, the 500mb pattern with the positive NAO and overall flow before the storm screams progressiveness to me, I think this will be another GFS win.

The difference here though is the ridge out west and the PV sort of lifting out. It's certainly something to watch. It's still too early to really have a feel though.

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Huge storm on this run.  At 162, 988 low just east of LI. Heavy snow everywhere, including the coast. Inland areas do really well. The coast gets in on the fun at 162 hours when the low bombs out. Before this ,it's slop for the coast. Inland areas, including the coast stays below freezing throughout the event on the Euro. This run was really close to a HECS.

Classic track by last night's OP EURO, an absolute snow bomb. Too bad its still a week out and will change a hundred times. Even though it could hurt us in the end, I'll be rooting for a full phase scenario.  :popcorn:

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The difference here though is the ridge out west and the PV sort of lifting out. It's certainly something to watch. It's still too early to really have a feel though.

 

The West Coast ridge is more amplified on ensemble. So there's much cleaner phase. While the op collapses that ridge and keeps the phasing more sloppy. Also the PV is not as elongated NW to SE on ensemble mean. So that cause more cold air to press southward and blocking this storm coming from further north and west.wu5jjp.jpg

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The West Coast ridge is more amplified on ensemble. So there's much cleaner phase. While the op collapses that ridge and keeps the phasing more sloppy. Also the PV is not as elongated NW to SE on ensemble mean. So that cause more cold air to press southward and blocking this storm coming from further north and west.wu5jjp.jpg

Wouldn't the op give us a potential for a stronger storm?

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1251 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 10 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 14 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF THE
ALL-TOO FAMILIAR RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN/EASTERN
CONUS... RESPECTIVELY. NW ATLANTIC RIDGING IS ALSO FORECAST TO
RE-BUILD --AGAIN--
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH ENERGY INITIALLY
OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THEN TRAILING/DIGGING ENERGY EXITING THE
PAC NW... THIS SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH
SPECIFIC TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF A PERHAPS PHASED OR SEMI-PHASED
SYSTEM TRACKING EASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK... BUT THERE REMAINS MUCH TO BE SORTED OUT. THE USUAL
SUSPECTS HAVE FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE IN
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES -- THE 12Z/18Z GFS RUNS WERE
QUICKER/WEAKER WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC SYSTEM WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
WAS SLOWER/DEEPER. THE TRENDS OF THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
ABOUT AS CLEAR AS MUD... EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AT THE LEAST SIGNALING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM /WHICH IS EVIDENT SIMPLY
FROM THE GENERAL PATTERN/.
THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLES OFFER A MORE
CONSISTENT TREND OVER THE LAST 48 HRS TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE
DEVELOPED SYSTEM AND THAT IS WHERE THE PREFERENCE LIES BY ABOUT
WED/D5 ONWARD. TO THE SOUTH... THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER MEXICO
HAS BEEN HANDLED POORLY BY THE RECENT ECMWF RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT /BUT WILL IT BE RIGHT?/. IN LIGHT OF THE
INTERMEDIATE ENSEMBLES... BEST BET MAY BE TO SPLIT THE GFS/ECMWF
DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT. IN-HOUSE CLUSTERING OF 12Z GEFS/ECENS
MEMBERS SHOW THE LARGEST CLUSTER OF 8 CAMPS /13 MEMBERS OUT OF 70/
FAVORING THIS INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.

 

  just follow the updated pattern... mudslingers   <_<  

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f144_us.html

 

 

any more signals.... and the martians will tell me I am jamming them!!!!

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Today through sundays model runs i expect to still see plenty of spread. Very complex setup to say the least especially for mid march where we need more of an anomolous cold air source to stay snow on the coast and a near perfect track to get it.

Is a full phase with a low moving northward considered "complex"?

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Euro is coming in similiar to the 12z run, slightly less amplified though.

The overnight Euro was more disorganized aloft and more positively tilted than yesterday afternoon.  It was further south with the slp and the precip shield.  N and W NY and NNE were buried on yesterday's run and fringed on this one. 

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This may be the first time all winter that both the GFS ensemble and Euro ensemble means

are more amped and further north than the OPs at the same time.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslpa_us_24.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs-ens_mslpa_us_24.png

Have to root for the weaker solution then it comes under the confluence . Man if this thing phases west of the apps it goes to Toronto .

I see the OP are south . Just look at how deep the Euro ensembles are at 500 MB and I just say , how does that make it underneath .

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Have to root for the weaker solution then it comes under the confluence . Man if this thing phases west of the apps it goes to Toronto .

I see the OP are south . Just look at how deep the Euro ensembles are at 500 MB and I just say , how does that make it underneath .

 

It's interesting to also the CMC mean going for a pretty amplified system and similar track to GEFS at this point.

But I agree that we don't want this going neg tilt too fast.

 

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It's interesting to also the CMC mean going for a pretty amplified system similar track to  GEFS at this point.

But I agree that we don't want this going neg tilt too fast.

 

attachicon.gif2014030700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_144.png

Let`s see how the models trend over the next 48 hours with how this looks once East of the Rockies . Root for a sheared out POS  thru the Midwest and " MAYBE " it sneaks under .

But I`m not a fan yet .

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Let`s see how the models trend over the next 48 hours with how this looks once East of the Rockies . Root for a sheared out POS thru the Midwest and " MAYBE " it sneaks under .

But I`m not a fan yet .

Second this, im on the coast and im not expecting an all snow event. We're going to need some solid confluence in SE canada and also hope for a sloppy phase or later phase to save I-95 east from p-type issues IMO

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I know I'm going to get killed for posting this but I don't really care...

 

Only 5 ECMWF members had 6" or more of snow and only 2 had 10" or more. (KEWR)

At the same token, 18 members had at least 1"+ QPF.

 

Even at Mt. Pocono the numbers aren't that much better.

 

You have to go all the way up to Ulster/Sullivan Counties before you start to see an increase in snow totals.

 

Just something to keep an eye on. Climo would certainly favor those areas over ours.

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I know I'm going to get killed for posting this but I don't really care...

Only 5 ECMWF members had 6" or more of snow and only 2 had 10" or more. (KEWR)

At the same token, 18 members had at least 1"+ QPF.

Even at Mt. Pocono the numbers aren't that much better.

You have to go all the way up to Ulster/Sullivan Counties before you start to see an increase in snow totals.

Just something to keep an eye on. Climo would certainly favor those areas over ours.

Agree with you on this in that this time of year the upstate regions well away from the coast are more favored for the big snows. Like i said if we were to get the big snows we have to have a nearly perfect track with a well places HP/confluence. Currently im liking west of NJ and sullivan county northward for the big snows with this storm yanks

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Agree with you on this in that this time of year the upstate regions well away from the coast are more favored for the big snows. Like i said if we were to get the big snows we have to have a nearly perfect track with a well places HP/confluence. Currently im liking west of NJ and sullivan county northward for the big snows with this storm yanks

 

Yeah, we would have to get really lucky with everything going just right to get a 6" inch or greater event in NYC

after March 10th. There have only been 6 times since 1950 that we were able to pull that feat off. Most of our

snows post March 10" have been smaller or mixed events.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html

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Agree with you on this in that this time of year the upstate regions well away from the coast are more favored for the big snows. Like i said if we were to get the big snows we have to have a nearly perfect track with a well places HP/confluence. Currently im liking west of NJ and sullivan county northward for the big snows with this storm yanks

Just to give you an idea the snow total at KLGA for the Euro was just under 14" while the ensemble mean was just under 2". Big, big differences here.

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Yeah, we would have to get really lucky with everything going just right to get a 6" inch or greater event in NYC

after March 10th. There have only been 7 times since 1950 that we were able to pull that feat off. Most of our

snows post March 10" have been smaller or mixed events.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/sixplussnow.html

noaa has three for 1967 when it should be two...time is running out...It could still snow a month from now but good luck with that...

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Snow chance is very low but good chance at a big phased storm or bomb.

 

LMAO.

At this range any of the model solutions could end up being correct. The 6z nogaps could have the right solution or the Euro ensembles could.

 

It's all a crap shoot.

 

Give this 3 more 12z cycles (Sunday 12z suite) and then we will have a better idea.

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