Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS 12 hours slower, a tad weaker, and further SE compared to 12z a tad at 150hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Really nice run for the coast. 6+ for NYC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Doesn't matter it goes in banter or the vendor thread..regardless of whose forecast it is Well that time it landed here, i guess :-) GFS looks not so bad for our area... It'd be nice to see it move toward Euro idea with the phasing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Really nice run for the coast. 6+ for NYC on this run. When is this potential threat cause I have been hearing about it for 2 or 3 days now but it always seems like it is still a week away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I dont know... this run is better than the 18z and 12z GFS for the metro area snowfall wise but I am a bit concerned that it significantly weakend compared to its 18z run... Would like to see a big storm rain or snow from this... But I guess I shouldn't get too caught up in GFS runs 120+ hours out... (or 72+ hours out for that matter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I dont know... this run is better than the 18z and 12z GFS for the metro area snowfall wise but I am a bit concerned that it significantly weakend compared to its 18z run... Would like to see a big storm rain or snow from this... But I guess I shouldn't get too caught up in GFS runs 120+ hours out... (or 72+ hours out for that matter) If you want to see snow you don't want to see an early big wound up system ala euro , you would rain. The GFS would be the best case scenario from Philly to nyc. 6 days out , will take some time. For me is I like the look of the euro when I see what's at 500 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I would like to ask the pro mets if it's worth to even care about what the gfs shows at the moment since last storm it busted big time. The Canadian and even the nam had a better handling of last storm compared to global models. What are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If you want to see snow you don't want to see an early big wound up system ala euro , you would rain. The GFS would be the best case scenario from Philly to nyc. 6 days out , will take some time. For me is I like the look of the euro when I see what's at 500 MB It isn't impossible to get a big storm scenario for that the area can benefit with big snows... I dont think the 00z GFS is our "best case scenario" for snow, not even close IMO. Its a good scenario though... But yeah, several days out.. Just hope this doesn't weaken to the point where we see no system other than snow showers at all though... Again, I'd rather just see a huge storm with driving rain compared to a 3-6" snow storm... But thats just me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 That GFS run was very close to shearing out the whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 euro? Only out to 48 hrs at my source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is coming in similiar to the 12z run, slightly less amplified though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Huge storm on this run. At 162, 988 low just east of LI. Heavy snow everywhere, including the coast. Inland areas do really well. The coast gets in on the fun at 162 hours when the low bombs out. Before this ,it's slop for the coast. Inland areas, including the coast stays below freezing throughout the event on the Euro. This run was really close to a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 00 Z ECM Data & Summary 126 Hrs One low over W Alabama and One low over OK .. Warm from PA south -no precipitation in the area 132 Hrs 991 MB low over N Arkansas 1000 low over E KY and 1007 Mb low south of the FL panhandle still no precipitation in the area. Temperatures starting to cool off from N PA south...138 hrs 990 low over W VA and 1006 low off Haterras and 992 low over W TN ..Light QPF knocking on the door144 hrs 991 MB low over E KY with moderate to heavy QPF in Western PA and light to moderate eastern PA and NJ Temperatures warm upper 30s to lower 40s150 Heavy QPF across E PA and Northern NJ including NYC ..989 mb low over W VA Temps low 30s inland and along the coast ..long island mid 30s 156 NYC dry slotted ..Heavy QPF in Western PA Lighter QPF E PA .. 985 MB low just W Of DE..Temperatures lower 30s 162 hrs Very heavy QPF SE PA Heavy QPF E PA and all of NJ Including NYC ..983 MB east of NJ Temperatures 20s inland to around 30 along the coast..168 hrs 980 E of Cape CodSnow maps show :12 + NE PA and 10-12 around E C PA to NE NJ and NYC and 12 + NW NJ ..12 + South Central NY state Temperatures used are the 6 hr MAX temps off the High Res ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 00 Z ECM Data & Summary 126 Hrs One low over W Alabama and One low over OK .. Warm from PA south -no precipitation in the area 132 Hrs 991 MB low over N Arkansas 1000 low over E KY and 1007 Mb low south of the FL panhandle still no precipitation in the area. Temperatures starting to cool off from N PA south... 138 hrs 990 low over W VA and 1006 low off Haterras and 992 low over W TN ..Light QPF knocking on the door 144 hrs 991 MB low over E KY with moderate to heavy QPF in Western PA and light to moderate eastern PA and NJ Temperatures warm upper 30s to lower 40s 150 Heavy QPF across E PA and Northern NJ including NYC ..989 mb low over W VA Temps low 30s inland and along the coast ..long island mid 30s 156 NYC dry slotted ..Heavy QPF in Western PA Lighter QPF E PA .. 985 MB low just W Of DE..Temperatures lower 30s 162 hrs Very heavy QPF SE PA Heavy QPF E PA and all of NJ Including NYC ..983 MB east of NJ Temperatures 20s inland to around 30 along the coast.. 168 hrs 980 E of Cape Cod Snow maps show : 12 + NE PA and 10-12 around E C PA to NE NJ and NYC and 12 + NW NJ ..12 + South Central NY state Temperatures used are the 6 hr MAX temps off the High Res ECM thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 OK this is starting to look better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Im starting to like this threat too.. It interesting before Mid Fed there was a NW trend all winter, since then there as been a SE trend. I think this will end up pretty nice for the coast for a March storm at least. Still way out there though...need another 2 days at least to make sure this storm even exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Strong PV pressing down, can't bet on a NW trend when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro starts as rain for most of the metro except for far north-west areas. We still end up with 12+ area wide. Very nice run.Still 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Im starting to like this threat too.. It interesting before Mid Fed there was a NW trend all winter, since then there as been a SE trend. I think this will end up pretty nice for the coast for a March storm at least. Still way out there though...need another 2 days at least to make sure this storm even exists I liked the last threat to until we were between 48-72 hrs out so a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I liked the last threat to until we were between 48-72 hrs out so a lot can change. After last "threat" I will surprisingly wait for the NAM before I go out to buy some bread and milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I liked the last threat to until we were between 48-72 hrs out so a lot can change. After last "threat" I will surprisingly wait for the NAM before I go out to buy some bread and milk. I never liked it I knew there was going to be a problem with the PV. It was funny when people were saying it was going north. Lol yea the NAM has been pretty decent this winter I have to say. Besides a few terrible runs I think it has been one of there better models for most of the storms...go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GFS pattern and blending the ECMWF, support a 16-22 inch snowfall potential for Long Island. This may be the best threat of the winter for HECS. Looks like the winter pattern and snow threat is alive through the first week of April based on MJO alone. Does it go through 8-1 and then circle of death the last week of March ? I think we are on track for a very chilly spring and a very cool summer, which could potentially be even cooler than a blend of 2009/2000/1992. Emerging NINO puts a win in that column for cool. Could do without high heat. If we get 65-70 highs this summer with full sun and NW winds sign me up. If it is 50's and NE winds all summer, don't sign me up. I fear the latter for most of mid-late spring and a good portion of the summer with the frigid water temps being a big force to think about.... I think later May and June will be big fog, zero visibility at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensembles all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensembles all rain. Meh. They are on the extreme side of the envelope at this time. They are not the vaunted forecasting tool they used to be, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensembles all rain. That's a good thing at this point. I wouldn't wanna be in a prime spot this far out. Trend is our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Meh. They are on the extreme side of the envelope at this time. They are not the vaunted forecasting tool they used to be, that's for sure. I wouldn't toss them like you weenies are. They are the best skilled guidance this far out. It's something to keep in mind that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't toss them like you weenies are. They are the best skilled guidance this far out. It's something to keep in mind that's all.True cutter and full ne torch or coastal hugger with inland snows? Climatology hints at a coastal huger as this is the best part of the snow season for places like the northern greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't toss them like you weenies are. They are the best skilled guidance this far out. It's something to keep in mind that's all. Not tossing them. There is a small window of opportunity where they blow up a ridge out ahead of the storm which we don't quite recover from until it's too late. Meanwhile, the OP is a masterpiece for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 True cutter and full ne torch or coastal hugger with inland snows? Climatology hints at a coastal huger as this is the best part of the snow season for places like the northern greens. It's an inland runner. Never gets off the coast. It's looks warm pretty far inland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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