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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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This may be the wrong forum, but the ensemble mean Bluewave put up with regards to the potential temperature departures, match fairly well with the CFSv2 PB put up a few days back. I think that's a decent signal going forward of below average temps to finish out March and likely start April. Thoughts? 

 

The JMA weeklies are below normal in general right into the beginning of April. But weeks 3-4 look

less below normal than the next two.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/zpcmap.php

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Love the heat too. Was always amazed that most weather nerds hate heat with a passion. I like both equally. Give me extremes. If its winter- give me WINTER. If its summer, give me SUMMER

Yea I thought that too till I spent the last few years in Dubai where the summer has temps around 115-120 with some humidity! (heat index was usually above actual air temp).  You would literally have a death wish if you spent more than 10 minutes doing any kind of strenuous activity outside.  Now thats heat!

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If it had been All Snow he would have been blasted! Rules of engagement apply across the board. Politeness is not an option its a must!

Meh, it's an internet forum; politeness is nice enough, but rarely enforceable. It's a valid point as well... the past 14 pages could be losslessly boiled down to like a page of actual info and analysis.

It's a bit rough still being in no-man's land with regard to this threat. I'm sure we'd all love to take a more active approach to analyzing the pattern, but there's really nothing to do aside from awaiting the next model cycle. It's only marginally more exciting from being led to believe there's nothing in the pipeline.

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Can we get back to this being a WEATHER forum? Jeez.

UPTON:

A FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE

COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES

SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THEN INTRODUCES

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE

NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS VARY

SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TROF...WITH THE ECMWF

DEVELOPING A FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE

COUNTRY BY MID WEEK...WITH THE GFS A LESS AMPLIFIED...COLDER

SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO ARISE DUE TO DIFFERENT PACKETS OF

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC AND THE SPACING BETWEEN THEM. SUCH

DETAILS AT THIS TIME CAN HARDLY BE REALIZED...THUS AN ENSEMBLE OR

MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH IS PREFERRED. THIS SCENARIO WILL TAKE LOW

PRESSURE ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN

ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT

INTO THU MORNING. THIS IS A COLD SCENARIO THAT WOULD RESULT IN A

MAINLY SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER....THE PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE

PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT WAY TO

EARLY TO CONSIDER THIS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH

IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

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Can we get back to this being a WEATHER forum? Jeez.

UPTON:

A FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE

COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES

SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THEN INTRODUCES

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE

NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS VARY

SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TROF...WITH THE ECMWF

DEVELOPING A FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE

COUNTRY BY MID WEEK...WITH THE GFS A LESS AMPLIFIED...COLDER

SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO ARISE DUE TO DIFFERENT PACKETS OF

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC AND THE SPACING BETWEEN THEM. SUCH

DETAILS AT THIS TIME CAN HARDLY BE REALIZED...THUS AN ENSEMBLE OR

MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH IS PREFERRED. THIS SCENARIO WILL TAKE LOW

PRESSURE ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN

ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT

INTO THU MORNING. THIS IS A COLD SCENARIO THAT WOULD RESULT IN A

MAINLY SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER....THE PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE

PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT WAY TO

EARLY TO CONSIDER THIS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH

IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

Upton does well to show that we wont really have any idea about eventual outcome without the specifics of the spacing involved. Also another crucial point, is understanding that the Euro , as currently progged, would lead to a mix at best for the coast as it is the currently both the stronger and warmer solution

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Upton does well to show that we wont really have any idea about eventual outcome without the specifics of the spacing involved. Also another crucial point, is understanding that the Euro , as currently progged, would lead to a mix at best for the coast as it is the currently both the stronger and warmer solution

True. However, something Rayno @ Accu pointed out, this season's trends haven't really followed a more westerly track -- he seems to think Euro will jog east in the coming days. It will all depend on that high to the north and how prominent it is

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Sorry bud, I was a bit rude.

But there are lots of free model sites and they do a good job of dumbing down the meteorology for people like you and me. Lots of people here can point you in the right direction if you are interested, including me.

  

It's really to early to nail down timing.

Thanks fellas, appreciate it.

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99 hours the wave is WAY slower compared to the 18z, There may be a small low that scoots east but the main show is still out in Cali

Lol think about what you just said. Hour 99, low out in Cali? Nothing wrong with looking at the runs, but hanging over every 3 hr interval is a little silly.
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That entire writing was a waste of time reading... Factual errors everywhere... This doesn't really need to be posted here though so I can see why it was removed... Doesn't this happen with every storm potential?

Lately it does, yeah.

Nevertheless, it IS a meteorologically based discussion about the upcoming potential. (Model trends, etc.) I see much less related posts every other time I check this forum so I don't wanna hear it ;-)

A lot of the EURO vs. GFS discussion is based on if that northern piece of energy dips far enough south to tap into the southern stream energy, which the Euro shows but GFS doesn't.

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