WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 10 individual Euro members showing 8" or more of snow at KLGA, up slightly from 00z. That is any frozen precip though, right ? Looked like a lot of frozen precip that wasn't snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This may be the wrong forum, but the ensemble mean Bluewave put up with regards to the potential temperature departures, match fairly well with the CFSv2 PB put up a few days back. I think that's a decent signal going forward of below average temps to finish out March and likely start April. Thoughts? The JMA weeklies are below normal in general right into the beginning of April. But weeks 3-4 look less below normal than the next two. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/zpcmap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Love the heat too. Was always amazed that most weather nerds hate heat with a passion. I like both equally. Give me extremes. If its winter- give me WINTER. If its summer, give me SUMMER Yea I thought that too till I spent the last few years in Dubai where the summer has temps around 115-120 with some humidity! (heat index was usually above actual air temp). You would literally have a death wish if you spent more than 10 minutes doing any kind of strenuous activity outside. Now thats heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 you also have 35 times fewer posters and less of a chance at seeing snow, no offense. Yeah there is different climatology, but not that much less a chance. KPHL rains, your subforum rains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Oh screw it let's get a big phased bomb, at least it'll make the weather interesting as I've given up on anymore snow threats anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Because something is happening hereBut you don't know what it isDo you, Mister Jones ? http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/hemi/n_pacific/current/n_pacific.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 18z GEFS looks good, south of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If it had been All Snow he would have been blasted! Rules of engagement apply across the board. Politeness is not an option its a must! Meh, it's an internet forum; politeness is nice enough, but rarely enforceable. It's a valid point as well... the past 14 pages could be losslessly boiled down to like a page of actual info and analysis. It's a bit rough still being in no-man's land with regard to this threat. I'm sure we'd all love to take a more active approach to analyzing the pattern, but there's really nothing to do aside from awaiting the next model cycle. It's only marginally more exciting from being led to believe there's nothing in the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Can we get back to this being a WEATHER forum? Jeez. UPTON: A FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THEN INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK...WITH THE GFS A LESS AMPLIFIED...COLDER SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO ARISE DUE TO DIFFERENT PACKETS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC AND THE SPACING BETWEEN THEM. SUCH DETAILS AT THIS TIME CAN HARDLY BE REALIZED...THUS AN ENSEMBLE OR MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH IS PREFERRED. THIS SCENARIO WILL TAKE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS IS A COLD SCENARIO THAT WOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER....THE PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT WAY TO EARLY TO CONSIDER THIS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Can we get back to this being a WEATHER forum? Jeez. UPTON: A FAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SENDING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THEN INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK...WITH THE GFS A LESS AMPLIFIED...COLDER SOLUTION. THE DIFFERENCES SEEM TO ARISE DUE TO DIFFERENT PACKETS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OFF THE PACIFIC AND THE SPACING BETWEEN THEM. SUCH DETAILS AT THIS TIME CAN HARDLY BE REALIZED...THUS AN ENSEMBLE OR MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH IS PREFERRED. THIS SCENARIO WILL TAKE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TUE...AND THEN ACROSS TN VALLEY WED...PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THIS IS A COLD SCENARIO THAT WOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER....THE PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND THE ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT WAY TO EARLY TO CONSIDER THIS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. Upton does well to show that we wont really have any idea about eventual outcome without the specifics of the spacing involved. Also another crucial point, is understanding that the Euro , as currently progged, would lead to a mix at best for the coast as it is the currently both the stronger and warmer solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 small visual highlight to follow the wpc track path http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg in at 996 mb out at 996mb you cant make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 small visual highlight to follow the wpc track path wpc-trac.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg in at 996 mb out at 996mb you cant make this stuff up That's a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Upton does well to show that we wont really have any idea about eventual outcome without the specifics of the spacing involved. Also another crucial point, is understanding that the Euro , as currently progged, would lead to a mix at best for the coast as it is the currently both the stronger and warmer solution True. However, something Rayno @ Accu pointed out, this season's trends haven't really followed a more westerly track -- he seems to think Euro will jog east in the coming days. It will all depend on that high to the north and how prominent it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 That's a miller B. so we should change the thread title!!!! http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Current PAC 500mb guidance http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm2&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 As others have said, id rather this be a bomb hugging the coast than out to sea and an inch of snow! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It is way too early. We know there is a good chance for a decent to big storm. The track can be any where from Michigan to Cape Hatteras. That sums it up we saw what happen to the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Standard Deviation Bulls-Eye 500mb http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/std_f168_usbg.gif trust it or bust it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Cut it out, everyone. And use this thread for non-storm related discussion. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41911-winter-2013-2014-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's really to early to nail down timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sorry bud, I was a bit rude. But there are lots of free model sites and they do a good job of dumbing down the meteorology for people like you and me. Lots of people here can point you in the right direction if you are interested, including me. It's really to early to nail down timing. Thanks fellas, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS, the energy down south @ 45 hours is farther west. The EURO eventually phased the low coming on shore with this energy....Just an observation thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 00z GFS @ 66 hours, the energy out in the Pacific is deeper (farther south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The energy in the Pacific is also slower, this could bode well possibly as it allows the setup over SE Canada to set up faster...we'll see Man it is really digging south out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 @ 87 hours there is pretty significant changes with the wave out west. I personally believe it will bode well for us...It has a much deeper & slower wave crashing into Cali... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 99 hours the wave is WAY slower compared to the 18z, There may be a small low that scoots east but the main show is still out in Cali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This isn't like the Euro yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 99 hours the wave is WAY slower compared to the 18z, There may be a small low that scoots east but the main show is still out in CaliLol think about what you just said. Hour 99, low out in Cali? Nothing wrong with looking at the runs, but hanging over every 3 hr interval is a little silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS goes poof with the storm it seems lol 991mb to 1004mb 18z to 00z at hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It still splits the energy out west. I don't really see any major shifts one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 That entire writing was a waste of time reading... Factual errors everywhere... This doesn't really need to be posted here though so I can see why it was removed... Doesn't this happen with every storm potential? Lately it does, yeah. Nevertheless, it IS a meteorologically based discussion about the upcoming potential. (Model trends, etc.) I see much less related posts every other time I check this forum so I don't wanna hear it ;-) A lot of the EURO vs. GFS discussion is based on if that northern piece of energy dips far enough south to tap into the southern stream energy, which the Euro shows but GFS doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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