SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this. Triple phasers actually occur way more often it's just that a lot of them end up over Nova Scotia and we never notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The error envelope at 150 hours is prob from a center east of the BM to a center running to Albany Means this far out are useless Spreads narrow inside 3 days check individuals and hope the control comes east. Day 7 means r crud IMO The control run looks like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Triple phasers actually occur way more often it's just that a lot of them end up over Nova Scotia and we never notice Really interesting point Goose. Its often why I look at their weather with awe: the propsentity for the region to exprience Blizzards from Late Oct. to Early may is just downright sexy! But why isnt their average snowfall much higher Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 58.5cm 40.3cm 36,2cm 9.7cm 0.6cm 0cm 23.03" 15.87" 14.25" 3.82" 0.24" 0" July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0cm 0cm 0cm 1.3cm 7.4cm 33.9cm 0" 0" 0" 0.51" 2.91" 13.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The control run looks like the op. Center come up over KNYC . Would def wana be a ski resort for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can somebody update the subtitle to "Triple Phaser/Storm of the Millennium" please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The error envelope at 150 hours is prob from a center east of the BM to a center running to Albany Means this far out are useless Spreads narrow inside 3 days check individuals and hope the control comes east. Day 7 means r crud IMO Probably just a matter of how fast the amplification occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Triple phasers actually occur way more often it's just that a lot of them end up over Nova Scotia and we never notice I am not a big fan of those. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/dec2528_2004.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You guys say you root for extremes but most of you hate heat and summer...be consistant and root heat waves on...only fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can somebody update the subtitle to "Triple Phaser/Storm of the Millennium" please? I am in control of the titles and I like the one I have up there now - "precip types/locations to be determined "- title March 12 - 14 Potential Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Probably just a matter of how fast the amplification occurs. MSLP_North32America_168.gif As in any case once east of the mountains without blocking you don't want a Neg tilted system west of the apps or it comes up west and redevelops east of CC as the soaking rain is done . The problem is that's an impressive deep look at 500 MB not sure if when that comes thru the ten valley its not on its way to blowing up . 6 DAYS away , so we have some time , but I hate seeing the Control west like that - the Euro OP is good out of the southern branch . Root for some weakening E of the Rockies and maybe you can get a little confluence to shunt it under then come up . But so far away .I would be alert if I lived in Chicago or Colts neck .JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You guys say you root for extremes but most of you hate heat and summer...be consistant and root heat waves on...only fair 90 degrees in July is not extreme in any way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You guys say you root for extremes but most of you hate heat and summer...be consistant and root heat waves on...only fair We'll if it's going to be 95 it might as well be 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I am in control of the titles and I like the one I have up there now - "precip types/locations to be determed "- title March 12 - 14 Potential Storm I just think mine reads better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 HPC's current thoughts on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I am not a big fan of those. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/dec2528_2004.gif It's too bad that storm couldn't have been slowed down just a little more-that would have been an epic snow event for much more of the East had the phase taken place a little sooner, like 6-12 hours sooner. I remember seeing the radar that night blow up heavy snow just offshore and then seeing the "white Hurricane Juan" reports out of Halifax the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You guys say you root for extremes but most of you hate heat and summer...be consistant and root heat waves on...only fair Love the heat too. Was always amazed that most weather nerds hate heat with a passion. I like both equally. Give me extremes. If its winter- give me WINTER. If its summer, give me SUMMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 As in any case once east of the mountains without blocking you don't want a Neg tilted system west of the apps or it comes up west and redevelops east of CC as the soaking rain is done . The problem is that's an impressive deep look at 500 MB not sure if when that comes thru the ten valley its not on its way to blowing up . 6 DAYS away , so we have some time , but I hate seeing the Control west like that - the Euro OP is good out of the southern branch . Root for some weakening E of the Rockies and maybe you can get a little confluence to shunt it under then come up . But so far away .I would be alert if I lived in Chicago or Colts neck .JK Going neg west of the apps would bring the low farther west than most of us would like to see. Something a little slower or with a further south PV would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Euro Ens mean h5 anomaly map at 168 (12z today) and 192 (0Z last night) show some good continuity. Not bad for this far out, but such a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's too bad that storm couldn't have been slowed down just a little more-that would have been an epic snow event for much more of the East had the phase taken place a little sooner, like 6-12 hours sooner. I remember seeing the radar that night blow up heavy snow just offshore and then seeing the "white Hurricane Juan" reports out of Halifax the next day. 2004 was a big year for that. All the more reason why the phase between the two streams last February that really hammered Suffolk and CT was so rare to happen that far west. This was the other one I can remember being really disappointed about. http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb1719_2004.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Love the heat too. Was always amazed that most weather nerds hate heat with a passion. I like both equally. Give me extremes. If its winter- give me WINTER. If its summer, give me SUMMER Yup love snow and cold but don't mind the heat of summer... like you said, give me extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 18z GFS has trended towards the Euro solution so far through hour 117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS took a step, but it is splitting the energy again which will bring a low to the area BEFORE the cold has come in, therefore won't be too good.... Look at 120 500mb Yanks, notice the energy near 4 corners, I wish the GFS was forming the low back there, so the confluence could setup over SE Can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah GFS forming a lot at too north a latitude, we need that shortwave out west to really dig and let the cold air build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, this was definitely a step towards the Euro solution. What it does past day 5 is of little importance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, this was definitely a step towards the Euro solution. What it does past day 5 is of little importance right now. Agreed, luckily it has time to totally change...That energy near Texas could be a saving grace actually. I'd like that to be farther west. It would actually help slow down and draw the shortwave & bring it farther south, allowing the HP to build in in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agreed, luckily it has time to totally change...That energy near Texas could be a saving grace actually. I'd like that to be farther west. It would actually help slow down and draw the shortwave & bring it farther south, allowing the HP to build in in time. a few small changes especially up in SE Canada can really help the cold air stay along the coast and the storm track from DE-BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This may be the wrong forum, but the ensemble mean Bluewave put up with regards to the potential temperature departures, match fairly well with the CFSv2 PB put up a few days back. I think that's a decent signal going forward of below average temps to finish out March and likely start April. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 10 individual Euro members showing 8" or more of snow at KLGA, up slightly from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 When does the energy over the Pacific come onshore for better sampling? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hrbw.gif 96hrs If we can trust the Canadian balloon grid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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