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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this.

Triple phasers actually occur way more often it's just that a lot of them end up over Nova Scotia and we never notice

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Triple phasers actually occur way more often it's just that a lot of them end up over Nova Scotia and we never notice

Really interesting point Goose. Its often why I look at their weather with awe: the propsentity for the region to exprience Blizzards from Late Oct. to Early may is just downright sexy! But why isnt their average snowfall much higher  

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 58.5cm 40.3cm 36,2cm 9.7cm 0.6cm 0cm 23.03" 15.87" 14.25" 3.82" 0.24" 0"

 

 

July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 0cm 0cm 0cm 1.3cm 7.4cm 33.9cm 0" 0" 0" 0.51" 2.91" 13.35"
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The error envelope at 150 hours is prob from a center east of the BM to a center running to Albany Means this far out are useless

Spreads narrow inside 3 days check individuals and hope the control comes east. Day 7 means r crud IMO

 

Probably just a matter of how fast the amplification occurs.

 

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Can somebody update the subtitle to "Triple Phaser/Storm of the Millennium" please?

I am in control of the titles  :pimp: and I like the one I have up there now - "precip types/locations to be determined "- title March 12 - 14 Potential Storm 

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Probably just a matter of how fast the amplification occurs.

 

attachicon.gifMSLP_North32America_168.gif

As in any case once  east of the mountains without blocking you don't want a Neg tilted system west of the apps or it comes up west and redevelops east of CC  as the soaking rain  is done .

The problem is that's an impressive deep look at 500 MB not sure if when that comes thru the ten valley its not on its way to blowing up .

6 DAYS away , so we have some time , but I hate seeing the Control west like that - the Euro OP  is good out of the southern branch  .

Root for some weakening E of the Rockies and maybe you can get a little confluence to shunt it under then come up .

But so far away .I would be alert if I lived in Chicago or Colts neck .JK  

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I am not a big fan of those.  ;)

 

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/dec2528_2004.gif

It's too bad that storm couldn't have been slowed down just a little more-that would have been an epic snow event for much more of the East had the phase taken place a little sooner, like 6-12 hours sooner. I remember seeing the radar that night blow up heavy snow just offshore and then seeing the "white Hurricane Juan" reports out of Halifax the next day.

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You guys say you root for extremes but most of you hate heat and summer...be consistant and root heat waves on...only fair

Love the heat too. Was always amazed that most weather nerds hate heat with a passion. I like both equally. Give me extremes. If its winter- give me WINTER. If its summer, give me SUMMER

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As in any case once  east of the mountains without blocking you don't want a Neg tilted system west of the apps or it comes up west and redevelops east of CC  as the soaking rain  is done .

The problem is that's an impressive deep look at 500 MB not sure if when that comes thru the ten valley its not on its way to blowing up .

6 DAYS away , so we have some time , but I hate seeing the Control west like that - the Euro OP  is good out of the southern branch  .

Root for some weakening E of the Rockies and maybe you can get a little confluence to shunt it under then come up .

But so far away .I would be alert if I lived in Chicago or Colts neck .JK  

 

Going neg west of the apps would bring the low farther west than most of us would like to see. Something a

little slower or with a further south PV would be better.

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It's too bad that storm couldn't have been slowed down just a little more-that would have been an epic snow event for much more of the East had the phase taken place a little sooner, like 6-12 hours sooner. I remember seeing the radar that night blow up heavy snow just offshore and then seeing the "white Hurricane Juan" reports out of Halifax the next day.

 

2004 was a big year for that. All the more reason why the phase between the two streams last February that

really hammered Suffolk and CT was so rare to happen that far west.

 

This was the other one I can remember being really disappointed about.

 

 

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/feb1719_2004.gif

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Love the heat too. Was always amazed that most weather nerds hate heat with a passion. I like both equally. Give me extremes. If its winter- give me WINTER. If its summer, give me SUMMER

Yup love snow and cold but don't mind the heat of summer... like you said, give me extremes.

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GFS took a step, but it is splitting the energy again which will bring a low to the area BEFORE the cold has come in, therefore won't be too good....

 

Look at 120 500mb Yanks, notice the energy near 4 corners, I wish the GFS was forming the low back there, so the confluence could setup over SE Can. 

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Yeah, this was definitely a step towards the Euro solution. What it does past day 5 is of little importance right now.

 

Agreed, luckily it has time to totally change...That energy near Texas could be a saving grace actually. I'd like that to be farther west. It would actually help slow down and draw the shortwave & bring it farther south, allowing the HP to build in in time. 

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Agreed, luckily it has time to totally change...That energy near Texas could be a saving grace actually. I'd like that to be farther west. It would actually help slow down and draw the shortwave & bring it farther south, allowing the HP to build in in time. 

a few small changes especially up in SE Canada can really help the cold air stay along the coast and the storm track from DE-BM

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This may be the wrong forum, but the ensemble mean Bluewave put up with regards to the potential temperature departures, match fairly well with the CFSv2 PB put up a few days back. I think that's a decent signal going forward of below average temps to finish out March and likely start April. Thoughts? 

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