IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 And the location and timing of the phase will be important also. Agreed, a faster phase will open the door for a true cutter, although I believe it would be forced to redevelop due to the strong high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Its perfectly fine & logical to root for a triple phaser. The last one we had was 21 years ago and nicknamed Storm of the century. So if we get the storm of Century next week as opposed to 2093 ( when none of us will be around) Im perfectly Ok with that : especially if it brings CPK a foot like its predecessor and ares NW 1-3 ft! Just fine with me! Thank You! Couldn't agree more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agreed, a faster phase will open the door for a true cutter, although I believe it would be forced to redevelop due to the strong high to the north. Hopefully, we can get one outcome to lock in by 48-72 instead going right down to the wire with big changes like sun-mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hopefully, we can get one outcome to lock in by 48-72 instead going right down to the wire with big changes like sun-mon. Agreed, but the GFS/GGEM and Euro are worlds apart right now in how they handle the energy out west. It makes a huge difference in the end between a big phased storm and just a weak wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 When does the energy over the Pacific come onshore for better sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agreed, but the GFS/GGEM and Euro are worlds apart right now in how they handle the energy out west. It makes a huge difference in the end between a big phased storm and just a weak wave. We probably have quite a ways to go to get those details nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We have people here rooting for 4" in their backyard rather than what would equate to an historical storm for areas just our northwest. It's the middle of March after we've all had plenty of snow to go around. It's time to go big or go home. Of course people are going to root for snow in their backyard, and wouldn't be happy if it rains where they live even if inland people get crushed. 95% of people here are snow lovers and want to see snow where they live. And at the thought now that it has to be an inland storm if it will be a bomb 168 hours out, and the coast will only be happy if it's a sheared and weak storm. That right there shows your personal bias. That and your rants against benchmark storms because they always screw over inland areas (untrue but again, it shows your bias). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lol watch it jackpot Virginia again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Of course people are going to root for snow in their backyard, and wouldn't be happy if it rains where they live even if inland people get crushed. 95% of people here are snow lovers and want to see snow where they live. And at the thought now that it has to be an inland storm if it will be a bomb 168 hours out, and the coast will only be happy if it's a sheared and weak storm. That right there shows your personal bias. That and your rants against benchmark storms because they always screw over inland areas (untrue but again, it shows your bias). The only biases I have are for extreme weather. I root for the extremes and severe weather, regardless of what happens where I live. Naturally a triple phaser is more appealing to me, even if that equates to less snow for my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The EURO phases with the energy left behind from the Day 3 storm, right now I believe it is the only model to do this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 In any event, the storm should pull down more unseasonably cold temperatures behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The only biases I have are for extreme weather. I root for the extremes and severe weather, regardless of what happens where I live. Naturally a triple phaser is more appealing to me, even if that equates to less snow for my backyard. A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this. If the 12z Euro wasn't a triple phaser then I have no clue what else we would need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If the 12z Euro wasn't a triple phaser then I have no clue what else we would need. If it happens then BEAUTIFUL but at the very least Im hoping the solution repeats in varying form for next 48-72 hours so we can have some excitment and then wind up up with an MECS 12-18 to finish our season possibly breaking the record - Yes you can file this under wishful thinking but its a really REALLY pleasant thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lol..people will argue about anything in herethis is the reason I and others left the other site and came here. Now this site is going down hill and some of the pros don't even want to post because it turns into a pissing contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z Euro ensemble mean looking good so far. Low will track south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Which is part of the American Weather Forums, is it not? Which is part of Google Search results, which is part of teh Internets, which is part of a series of tubes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, 12z Euro mean looks excellent. Takes the low south of us off the Virginia Capes, then towards the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If the 12z Euro wasn't a triple phaser then I have no clue what else we would need. It's a very strong polar and STJ phased system, but the arctic jet is still a separate entity. Notice the prior pieces of energy phasing come from those two streams. There are Arctic jet vort maxes that are still associated with that separate jet. The 1993 storm had 510dm heights as far south as WV/PA, and arctic jet air making it to the Gulf of Mexico. This is nothing like that. This would be more like March 3, 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Gorgeous, sub 1000mb low off the Delmarva, probably somewhere between the Euro and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 That's about as beautiful of an ensemble mean that you will ever see at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The NYC sub-forum covers areas well into Upstate NY and northeast PA does it not? No, not necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 No, not necessarily. We've moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Classic snowstorm track on the ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this. Maybe a met can chime in just to discuss. I def don't think we will see one. They are rare but probably not once in 100 years. Here's a link I found and the guy seems to think we have had a few this century. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Classic snowstorm track on the ensemble mean I bet there must be some individual members that are doozies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm liking what I see here. But I can't emphasize enough the importance of the PV over southeast Canda. If we see that trend weaker and/or further north and west with time, this will allow the system to cut west and we will all be on the warm side. Comparing the 12z GFS with the 12z Euro at H500, the PV seems to be in a slightly more favorable position on the GFS, but overall there is very good agreement, and as I said before, I like where we currently stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 EPS control run looks similar to the OP, huge run for Upstate NY and New England. NYC fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Is this storm possibility looking to be coming Tuesday night into wednesday or Wednesday into Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 That's about as beautiful of an ensemble mean that you will ever see at day 7. The error envelope at 150 hours is prob from a center east of the BM to a center running to Albany Means this far out are useless Spreads narrow inside 3 days check individuals and hope the control comes east. Day 7 means r crud IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.