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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Its perfectly fine & logical to root for a triple phaser. The last one we had was 21 years ago and nicknamed Storm of the century. So if we get the storm of Century next week as opposed to 2093 ( when none of us will be around) Im perfectly Ok with that : especially if it brings CPK a foot like its predecessor and ares NW 1-3 ft! Just fine with me!

Thank You! Couldn't agree more!

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Agreed, a faster phase will open the door for a true cutter, although I believe it would be forced to redevelop due to the strong high to the north.

 

Hopefully, we can get one outcome to lock in by 48-72 instead going right down to the wire with big changes like

sun-mon.

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Hopefully, we can get one outcome to lock in by 48-72 instead going right down to the wire with big changes like

sun-mon.

Agreed, but the GFS/GGEM and Euro are worlds apart right now in how they handle the energy out west. It makes a huge difference in the end between a big phased storm and just a weak wave.

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Agreed, but the GFS/GGEM and Euro are worlds apart right now in how they handle the energy out west. It makes a huge difference in the end between a big phased storm and just a weak wave.

 

We probably have quite a ways to go to get those details nailed down. 

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We have people here rooting for 4" in their backyard rather than what would equate to an historical storm for areas just our northwest. It's the middle of March after we've all had plenty of snow to go around. It's time to go big or go home.

Of course people are going to root for snow in their backyard, and wouldn't be happy if it rains where they live even if inland people get crushed. 95% of people here are snow lovers and want to see snow where they live. And :lmao: at the thought now that it has to be an inland storm if it will be a bomb 168 hours out, and the coast will only be happy if it's a sheared and weak storm. That right there shows your personal bias. That and your rants against benchmark storms because they always screw over inland areas (untrue but again, it shows your bias).

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Of course people are going to root for snow in their backyard, and wouldn't be happy if it rains where they live even if inland people get crushed. 95% of people here are snow lovers and want to see snow where they live. And :lmao: at the thought now that it has to be an inland storm if it will be a bomb 168 hours out, and the coast will only be happy if it's a sheared and weak storm. That right there shows your personal bias. That and your rants against benchmark storms because they always screw over inland areas (untrue but again, it shows your bias).

The only biases I have are for extreme weather. I root for the extremes and severe weather, regardless of what happens where I live.

 

Naturally a triple phaser is more appealing to me, even if that equates to less snow for my backyard.

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The only biases I have are for extreme weather. I root for the extremes and severe weather, regardless of what happens where I live.

 

Naturally a triple phaser is more appealing to me, even if that equates to less snow for my backyard.

A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this.

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A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this.

If the 12z Euro wasn't a triple phaser then I have no clue what else we would need.

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If the 12z Euro wasn't a triple phaser then I have no clue what else we would need.

If it happens then BEAUTIFUL but at the very least Im hoping the solution repeats in varying form for next 48-72 hours so we can have some excitment and then wind up up with an MECS 12-18 to finish our season possibly breaking the record - Yes you can file this under wishful thinking but its a really REALLY pleasant thought

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If the 12z Euro wasn't a triple phaser then I have no clue what else we would need.

It's a very strong polar and STJ phased system, but the arctic jet is still a separate entity. Notice the prior pieces of energy phasing come from those two streams. There are Arctic jet vort maxes that are still associated with that separate jet.

 

The 1993 storm had 510dm heights as far south as WV/PA, and arctic jet air making it to the Gulf of Mexico. This is nothing like that. This would be more like March 3, 1994.

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A triple phaser is extraordinarily rare, maybe once per century. No model yet has shown that at least that I can tell. We can "root" for one, but the odds are so low that it is hard to expect anything like this.

Maybe a met can chime in just to discuss. I def don't think we will see one. They are rare but probably not once in 100 years.

Here's a link I found and the guy seems to think we have had a few this century.

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

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I'm liking what I see here. But I can't emphasize enough the importance of the PV over southeast Canda. If we see that trend weaker and/or further north and west with time, this will allow the system to cut west and we will all be on the warm side. Comparing the 12z GFS with the 12z Euro at H500, the PV seems to be in a slightly more favorable position on the GFS, but overall there is very good agreement, and as I said before, I like where we currently stand.

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That's about as beautiful of an ensemble mean that you will ever see at day 7.

The error envelope at 150 hours is prob from a center east of the BM to a center running to Albany Means this far out are useless

Spreads narrow inside 3 days check individuals and hope the control comes east. Day 7 means r crud IMO

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