ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 On 3/7/2014 at 10:01 PM, YanksFan27 said: Compare the way it handled the energy out west to it's own run at 12z. Quite large differences. Like I said, it's not quite ready yet to fully move towards a stronger system. Agree that it's different then the 12z run, but just pointing out that it's no euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 7am wed 1004 over southern ohio pretty amped up this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's going to end up as a nice run because you still have the northern stream dropping and a bit more energy being ejected eastward than prior runs. What a volatile situation. All I will say is that the GFS was making the mistake of ejecting the western energy too sporadically last week. In reality it verified more consolidated. That might be the case again here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 On 3/7/2014 at 10:03 PM, ag3 said: Agree that it's different then the 12z run, but just pointing out that it's no euro. Agreed, I fully admit that I got excited when I saw hour 87. Baby steps FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 hr 120 low is just south of pitt..pretty warm so far. further north and stronger then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This run will be a lot stronger for the area than 12z thanks to more southern involvement. 12z was almost entirely northern stream driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Close to euro at 114 with a little more energy hanging back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The surface freezing line starts off in Albany but 850's run a long I-78. Not sure what actual surface temperatures would verify at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 hr 123 1000 mb over mid-atlantic…verbatim its warm for most in this sub forum..even nw areas at this hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 OPC 96hrs 1006mb shortwave dropping down with a real nice ridge in place this system is gon kick some azz---IMO http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hr500bw.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hrbw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Surface temperatures starting to cool now at hour 123. This is so much better dynamically than 12z. Major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 On 3/7/2014 at 10:06 PM, bluewave said: Close to euro at 114. f114.gif f120.gif Differences in PV and energy hanging back but pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 hr 126 surface low over delmarva temps crashing…nw areas snowing…surface maps look to have taking a step towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 126 is heavy snow from NYC north. The surface is slightly above freezing for the immediate NYC area and Long Island. Monmouth County is rain. LHV and Poconos are pure paste heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 yep very euro like 996 off nj coast at hr 129…snowing heavy from nyc-north..sne crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 129 heavy snow from I-78 north. The surface has now cooled below freezing pretty much everywhere except east of JFK and south of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 hr 132 992 heading over the bm... northern nj and sne crushed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Imagine how powerful the system would have been on this run if the upper-level trough didn't get decapitated out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 990 at hr 138….coast gets some snow also…looks like 2-4 major cave towards the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hour 132 wrap around snows with a sub 992mb low south of the benchmark. Plenty of wrap around snows well into Thursday morning. QPF is 0.75"+ all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 On 3/7/2014 at 9:21 PM, Capt. Adam said: While I agree that climo considerations may be overrated, I believe "seasonal trends" as they are discussed on here are relative to model performance. Models each have biases, and as a result of updates/upgrades, those biases will change through time. Thus, the "seasonal trend" of storms to "come NW" is relative to the output of certain models at certain points in time. I believe that to be noteworthy. In fact, local met offices would seem to agree as I frequently see "trends" relative to "model output" discussed in AFD's for a given season. Yes, that I would agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 On 3/7/2014 at 10:10 PM, Juliancolton said: Imagine how powerful the system would have been on this run if the upper-level trough didn't get decapitated out west! We're not done yet, but what a huge trend towards the Euro. This is really the first run in days that the GFS has shown this dynamic of a system. Good trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 gfs actually shows the ccb giving love to the coast this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Good call yanksfan with the early cave call. This run is very euro-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 snowfall 2-4 for central nj and long island 4-6 north jersey and nyc 6-8 for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 On 3/7/2014 at 10:13 PM, Allsnow said: snowfall 2-4 for central nj and long island 4-6 north jersey and nyc 6-8 for ct By 129 its snowing all the way down to 195 . But good to see this step stronger . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's a better more dynamic storm this run but it's the 18z gfs so we toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 18z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Nice step towards a colder and more amped up solution like the EURO but im going to hold off any excitement for a powerful coastal storm until 12z sunday. Feel that no matter what the coast is going to be taint/rain and inland areas are going to jackpot from this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If we are able to pick up some snow if it changes over then that's a huge win for me. I don't care if NW areas jackpot, but I do hope it trends towards a very powerful system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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