NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD141 AM EST WED MAR 05 2014VALID 12Z SAT MAR 08 2014 - 12Z WED MAR 12 2014...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING THE FCSTLARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF PACIFIC SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGHA MEAN RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM...WHILE A SEPARATE NRN STREAM FLOWS ACROSS CANADA AND EXTREME NRNCONUS. HOWEVER THE DETAILS WITHIN THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION BECOMENOTICEABLY LESS CLEAR ALREADY BY DAY 4 SUN AND PERSIST FOR THEREST OF THE PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TOREMAINING SOLNS BY SUN LEAVING THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 18Z GEFS/12ZECMWF MEANS AS THE BEST GUIDANCE CLUSTER FOR SIGNIFICANT FEATURESFROM DAY 3 SAT INTO DAY 5 MON. AFTER THAT TIME CONFIDENCE INOPERATIONAL MODEL SPECIFICS DECLINES ENOUGH TO FAVOR A 70/30 BLENDOF THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS....GUIDANCE EVALUATION...EXCLUSION OF THE 12Z ECMWF FCST FROM THE PREFERRED CLUSTER ISBASED ON A FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TIMING OF FLOW ACROSS THE NERNQUADRANT OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CURIOUS SPLITTING OFINITIAL SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ENERGY THAT LEADS TO A SHRTWVCROSSING THE SOUTHEAST ON MON IN A MANNER NOT DEPICTED IN OTHERLATEST SOLNS OR PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS. OTHERWISE DURING THE FIRSTHALF OF THE PERIOD THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THESE TWOASPECTS OF THE FCST.WITH UPSTREAM PACIFIC FLOW HEADING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE...MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE REASONABLY CLOSE INTO EARLY DAY 4 SUN BUTTHEN QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUALSHRTWVS HEADING INTO THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. MOST SOLNSINDICATE TWO SEPARATE SHRTWVS... A LEADING RELATIVELY FLAT ONETHAT TRACKS NEAR THE US-CANADIAN BORDER FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY ASECOND WHICH AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST AND PSBLY PLAINS. WITH THELATTER SHRTWV DIFFS IN LATITUDE OF THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OFENERGY REACHING THE WEST COAST AROUND LATE MON LEAD TOINCREASINGLY LARGE TIMING DIFFS THEREAFTER WITH 12Z ECMWF/CMC RUNSBRINGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY 7 WED WHILE THE12Z/18Z GFS ARE STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE GRTBASIN. RECENTRUNS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS VALID NEXT WED HINT AT SHRTWV TIMINGBETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES AND ARE PREFERRED SINCE THE SHRTWVENERGY IS OF SUFFICIENTLY SMALL SCALE FOR IT NOT TO BE RESOLVEDWELL SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME.BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THE ISSUES WITH INCOMING PACIFICENERGY LEAD TO DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OFENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND ASSOC SFC REFLECTION.WHAT CONSENSUS EXISTS SHOWS A FAIRLY SUPPRESSED SYSTEM SO A SOLNCLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY IS FAVORED UNTIL THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCEIN AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO.WITH THIS SRN TIER SYSTEM PSBLY BEING PART OF THE MIX... ALONGWITH LEADING PACIFIC ENERGY ALOFT AND A WAVY SFC FRONT DROPPINGSEWD FROM CANADA REACHING THE ERN STATES AFTER MON...MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW WHAT COULD BE A COMPLEX SFC EVOLUTION OVERTHE EAST LEADING TO CONSOLIDATION OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THEEAST COAST DAY 7 WED. THE ECMWF MEAN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLEWITH THE CANADIAN FRONT BUT BY WED SHOWS REMARKABLY GOODCONTINUITY WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE 12ZCMC MEAN IS SIMILAR ASIDE FROM BEING LESS SUPPRESSED. THE 18ZGEFS IS THE FIRST RUN OF RECENT VERSIONS TO BE SIMILAR TO THEECMWF MEAN RATHER THAN DEPICTING A MERE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWFRUNS PRIOR TO THE 12Z/4 CYCLE HAD SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE ECMWFMEAN THOUGH WERE MORE EAGER TO HOLD ONTO A TRAILING SFC WAVE W OFTHE APLCHNS AS OF EARLY NEXT WED....SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...ERN PAC SHRTWVS FLOWING INTO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OFMDT-HVY RAIN/HIGHER ELEV SNOW ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST DURINGTHE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS MSTR WILL REACH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ASWELL. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER PCPN TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTAND EXTEND AT TIMES INTO THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES... WITH ANINCOMING RIDGE ALOFT ENCOURAGING A DRYING TREND OVER THE NORTHWESTBY TUE-WED. NRN AREAS OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPSWHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST.SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FORLOCALLY HVY RNFL OVER/NEAR TX BY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY AREAS FARTHEREWD ALONG THE GULF COAST THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON HOW THE FEATUREIS INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY. MEANWHILE PROGRESSIVE NRNSTREAM FLOW SHOULD BRING MULTIPLE AREAS OF RELATIVELY LGT SNOWN/RAIN S OVER THE GRTLKS/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWPRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN STATES INTO WRN ATLC BY NEXTTUE-WED HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN OVERPARTS OF THE GRTLKS/NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC BUT THIS FAR INADVANCE THERE ARE TOO MANY DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES TO DETERMINESPECIFICS. AHEAD OF THIS PSBL SYSTEM THE EAST SHOULD SEE MILDTEMPS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS... BUT THEN ANOTHER AREA OF 10-20FBELOW NORMAL AIR SHOULD REACH THE MIDWEST/GRTLKS/NORTHEAST BY THEMIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 EURO OP; Day 7; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro ensembles looked decent. EPS control run had another one of its epic runs, especially for Mid-March's standards. 10-20" from the southern Apps up through SE Canada, including DC, Philly, NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 EURO OP; Day 7; goodsetup.gif Positioning and strength of the polar vortex will have a great influence here again. Models will likely have different run to run solutions through this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 All the models show this storm. Pretty good agreement on that part this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 All the models show this storm. Pretty good agreement on that part this far out. There was plenty of agreement on the last storm we had 4 days out, before the PV grew that southern lobe and the storm was squashed and suppressed. It's something to keep an eye out for but determining any kind of impact is still many days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 There was plenty of agreement on the last storm we had 4 days out, before the PV grew that southern lobe and the storm was squashed and suppressed. It's something to keep an eye out for but determining any kind of impact is still many days away. Yes but at least all the models show a storm. Not all the models showed a big hit with last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yes but at least all the models show a storm. Not all the models showed a big hit with last storm. At this point there is no point in discussing details. I think the models are still trying to distinguish which wave could be the storm. The latter, like the 00z EURO would be better because the cold could be reinforced by then, but you're right, all that matters at this point is we have a storm on the radar.... Man, I've been yearning for a big March bomb for a while..We are overdue down here in Philly I know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 only 15 model runs to go! 30 if you count 6 and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 At this point there is no point in discussing details. I think the models are still trying to distinguish which wave could be the storm. The latter, like the 00z EURO would be better because the cold could be reinforced by then, but you're right, all that matters at this point is we have a storm on the radar.... Man, I've been yearning for a big March bomb for a while..We are overdue down here in Philly I know that. Saturday and sunday would be better times to revisit this threat as being 7 days out anything can and will change. Hopefully this would be the archembault event to start to kick start spring weather and get this cold out of here. Nice big snowstorm to end a great season would be nice and then the warm weather not far after. Highly unlikely as looks like even beginning of april will be below normal to some degree as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 21 years after the march 93, another march superstorm would be nice. Plus its in my avatar so its only proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 only 15 model runs to go! 30 if you count 6 and 18z Yea WAY too far off to look at this too seriously. Most models have it to a degree but discussing p-type issues, PV and northern stream stuff is nill at this point. Models have a threat and thats just about it currently forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Any winter storm seems like a pipe dream now but I guess it's nice having something to follow or keep an eye on ahead of the seasonal doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 21 years after the march 93, another march superstorm would be nice. Plus its in my avatar so its only proper. We would need ALOT more to go right to have that come to fruition. there is a reason why that was dubbed the "storm of the century" and is NESIS #1 storm, it is the definition of an anomolous storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Any winter storm seems like a pipe dream now but I guess it's nice having something to follow or keep an eye on ahead of the seasonal doldrums. Seasonal doldrums ( severe thunderstorm season that is typically sub par and hurricane season that is average at best. Heat is the only thing worth tracking before another winter season ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I think anyone making any comparisons to either blizzard of 96, PD II, or March 1993 should be banned from now on lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We would need ALOT more to go right to have that come to fruition. there is a reason why that was dubbed the "storm of the century" and is NESIS #1 storm, it is the definition of an anomolous storm Its just fun to speculate. Cant take any of these runs seriously till maybe the weekend at best. I think I learned my lesson from this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Any winter storm seems like a pipe dream now but I guess it's nice having something to follow or keep an eye on ahead of the seasonal doldrums. Seasonal doldrums? Do you go outside and interact with others ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro is really the only model that's really enthused right now. We'll see what happens but I think this thread is a bit pre mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It's dreadfully premature. What a shame. See opening thread post...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro is really the only model that's really enthused right now. We'll see what happens but I think this thread is a bit pre mature. An Apps runner would be good at this stage, need a good rain to wash away the salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 An Apps runner would be good at this stage, need a good rain to wash away the salt. I like a cutter developing into a miller B. That's what the Euro was going with a few days ago. The GFS has yet to be enthused. None of the individual Euro ensemble members last night were overly enthused, they were drier than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 When do you think Upton will hoist watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 When do you think Upton will hoist watches? In about ten minutes an advisory will be hoisted for 10 flakes from 10am wed- till 1030a- maybe upgraded to 15 flakes if GFS shows the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 When do you think Upton will hoist watches? Already a WSW, 8-12", lollies of 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro is really the only model that's really enthused right now. We'll see what happens but I think this thread is a bit pre mature. the reason I created the thread is because in the March 7 -8th thread folks were starting to discuss this time period - also lets try and keep the banter in the banter thread - this is a legit threat next week as I posted HPC's discussion which is in their time frame now - also in another forum there was a thread with 5 pages already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 When do you think Upton will hoist watches? In about ten minutes an advisory will be hoisted for 10 flakes from 10am wed- till 1030a- maybe upgraded to 15 flakes if GFS shows the storm Already a WSW, 8-12", lollies of 14". JGKNY03 is gonna be angry you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 only 15 model runs to go! 30 if you count 6 and 18zHey, that's only 210 different solutions (not including the 6z and 18z runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro is really the only model that's really enthused right now. We'll see what happens but I think this thread is a bit pre mature. No it isn't. It's a weather board and you should be able to discuss anything related to weather. It is up to you if you want to post in it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Nice look to the inidicies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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