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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
141 AM EST WED MAR 05 2014

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 08 2014 - 12Z WED MAR 12 2014

...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING THE FCST
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONSISTING OF PACIFIC SHRTWVS PASSING THROUGH
A MEAN RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM...
WHILE A SEPARATE NRN STREAM FLOWS ACROSS CANADA AND EXTREME NRN
CONUS. HOWEVER THE DETAILS WITHIN THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION BECOME
NOTICEABLY LESS CLEAR ALREADY BY DAY 4 SUN AND PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TO
REMAINING SOLNS BY SUN LEAVING THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND 18Z GEFS/12Z
ECMWF MEANS AS THE BEST GUIDANCE CLUSTER FOR SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
FROM DAY 3 SAT INTO DAY 5 MON. AFTER THAT TIME CONFIDENCE IN
OPERATIONAL MODEL SPECIFICS DECLINES ENOUGH TO FAVOR A 70/30 BLEND
OF THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

EXCLUSION OF THE 12Z ECMWF FCST FROM THE PREFERRED CLUSTER IS
BASED ON A FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TIMING OF FLOW ACROSS THE NERN
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CURIOUS SPLITTING OF
INITIAL SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ENERGY THAT LEADS TO A SHRTWV
CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST ON MON IN A MANNER NOT DEPICTED IN OTHER
LATEST SOLNS OR PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS. OTHERWISE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THESE TWO
ASPECTS OF THE FCST.

WITH UPSTREAM PACIFIC FLOW HEADING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE...
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE REASONABLY CLOSE INTO EARLY DAY 4 SUN BUT
THEN QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWVS HEADING INTO THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. MOST SOLNS
INDICATE TWO SEPARATE SHRTWVS... A LEADING RELATIVELY FLAT ONE
THAT TRACKS NEAR THE US-CANADIAN BORDER FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A
SECOND WHICH AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST AND PSBLY PLAINS. WITH THE
LATTER SHRTWV DIFFS IN LATITUDE OF THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF
ENERGY REACHING THE WEST COAST AROUND LATE MON LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY LARGE TIMING DIFFS THEREAFTER WITH 12Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS
BRINGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS BY DAY 7 WED WHILE THE
12Z/18Z GFS ARE STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE GRTBASIN. RECENT
RUNS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS VALID NEXT WED HINT AT SHRTWV TIMING
BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES AND ARE PREFERRED SINCE THE SHRTWV
ENERGY IS OF SUFFICIENTLY SMALL SCALE FOR IT NOT TO BE RESOLVED
WELL SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME.

BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD THE ISSUES WITH INCOMING PACIFIC
ENERGY LEAD TO DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF
ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND ASSOC SFC REFLECTION.
WHAT CONSENSUS EXISTS SHOWS A FAIRLY SUPPRESSED SYSTEM SO A SOLN
CLOSE TO WPC CONTINUITY IS FAVORED UNTIL THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE
IN AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO.

WITH THIS SRN TIER SYSTEM PSBLY BEING PART OF THE MIX... ALONG
WITH LEADING PACIFIC ENERGY ALOFT AND A WAVY SFC FRONT DROPPING
SEWD FROM CANADA REACHING THE ERN STATES AFTER MON...
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW WHAT COULD BE A COMPLEX SFC EVOLUTION OVER
THE EAST LEADING TO CONSOLIDATION OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST DAY 7 WED. THE ECMWF MEAN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE
WITH THE CANADIAN FRONT BUT BY WED SHOWS REMARKABLY GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE 12Z
CMC MEAN IS SIMILAR ASIDE FROM BEING LESS SUPPRESSED. THE 18Z
GEFS IS THE FIRST RUN OF RECENT VERSIONS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF MEAN RATHER THAN DEPICTING A MERE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF
RUNS PRIOR TO THE 12Z/4 CYCLE HAD SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE ECMWF
MEAN THOUGH WERE MORE EAGER TO HOLD ONTO A TRAILING SFC WAVE W OF
THE APLCHNS AS OF EARLY NEXT WED.



...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ERN PAC SHRTWVS FLOWING INTO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MDT-HVY RAIN/HIGHER ELEV SNOW ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST DURING
THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THIS MSTR WILL REACH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS
WELL. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER PCPN TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND EXTEND AT TIMES INTO THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES... WITH AN
INCOMING RIDGE ALOFT ENCOURAGING A DRYING TREND OVER THE NORTHWEST
BY TUE-WED. NRN AREAS OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST.

SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HVY RNFL OVER/NEAR TX BY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY AREAS FARTHER
EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON HOW THE FEATURE
IS INFLUENCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY. MEANWHILE PROGRESSIVE NRN
STREAM FLOW SHOULD BRING MULTIPLE AREAS OF RELATIVELY LGT SNOW
N/RAIN S OVER THE GRTLKS/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN STATES INTO WRN ATLC BY NEXT
TUE-WED HAS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN OVER
PARTS OF THE GRTLKS/NEW ENGLAND/NRN MID ATLC BUT THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE THERE ARE TOO MANY DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES TO DETERMINE
SPECIFICS. AHEAD OF THIS PSBL SYSTEM THE EAST SHOULD SEE MILD
TEMPS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS... BUT THEN ANOTHER AREA OF 10-20F
BELOW NORMAL AIR SHOULD REACH THE MIDWEST/GRTLKS/NORTHEAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


RAUSCH
 

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All the models show this storm. Pretty good agreement on that part this far out.

There was plenty of agreement on the last storm we had 4 days out, before the PV grew that southern lobe and the storm was squashed and suppressed. It's something to keep an eye out for but determining any kind of impact is still many days away.

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There was plenty of agreement on the last storm we had 4 days out, before the PV grew that southern lobe and the storm was squashed and suppressed. It's something to keep an eye out for but determining any kind of impact is still many days away.

Yes but at least all the models show a storm. Not all the models showed a big hit with last storm.

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Yes but at least all the models show a storm. Not all the models showed a big hit with last storm.

 

At this point there is no point in discussing details. I think the models are still trying to distinguish which wave could be the storm. The latter, like the 00z EURO would be better because the cold could be reinforced by then, but you're right, all that matters at this point is we have a storm on the radar....

 

Man, I've been yearning for a big March bomb for a while..We are overdue down here in Philly I know that. 

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At this point there is no point in discussing details. I think the models are still trying to distinguish which wave could be the storm. The latter, like the 00z EURO would be better because the cold could be reinforced by then, but you're right, all that matters at this point is we have a storm on the radar....

Man, I've been yearning for a big March bomb for a while..We are overdue down here in Philly I know that.

Saturday and sunday would be better times to revisit this threat as being 7 days out anything can and will change. Hopefully this would be the archembault event to start to kick start spring weather and get this cold out of here. Nice big snowstorm to end a great season would be nice and then the warm weather not far after. Highly unlikely as looks like even beginning of april will be below normal to some degree as well

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only 15 model runs to go! 30 if you count 6 and 18z

Yea WAY too far off to look at this too seriously. Most models have it to a degree but discussing p-type issues, PV and northern stream stuff is nill at this point. Models have a threat and thats just about it currently forky

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21 years after the march 93, another march superstorm would be nice. Plus its in my avatar so its only proper. :popcorn:

We would need ALOT more to go right to have that come to fruition. there is a reason why that was dubbed the "storm of the century" and is NESIS #1 storm, it is the definition of an anomolous storm

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Any winter storm seems like a pipe dream now but I guess it's nice having something to follow or keep an eye on ahead of the seasonal doldrums.

Seasonal doldrums ( severe thunderstorm season that is typically sub par and hurricane season that is average at best. Heat is the only thing worth tracking before another winter season )

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We would need ALOT more to go right to have that come to fruition. there is a reason why that was dubbed the "storm of the century" and is NESIS #1 storm, it is the definition of an anomolous storm

 

Its just fun to speculate.  Cant take any of these runs seriously till maybe the weekend at best.  I think I learned my lesson from this past storm.

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An Apps runner would be good at this stage, need a good rain to wash away the salt.

I like a cutter developing into a miller B. That's what the Euro was going with a few days ago. The GFS has yet to be enthused.

 

None of the individual Euro ensemble members last night were overly enthused, they were drier than 12z.

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The Euro is really the only model that's really enthused right now. We'll see what happens but I think this thread is a bit pre mature.

the reason I created the thread is because in  the March 7 -8th thread folks were starting to discuss this time period - also lets try and keep the banter in the banter thread - this is a legit threat next week as I posted HPC's discussion which is in their time frame now - also in another forum there was a thread with 5 pages already

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When do you think Upton will hoist watches?

  

In about ten minutes an advisory will be hoisted for 10 flakes from 10am wed- till 1030a- maybe upgraded to 15 flakes if GFS shows the storm

  

Already a WSW, 8-12", lollies of 14".

JGKNY03 is gonna be angry you guys

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The Euro is really the only model that's really enthused right now. We'll see what happens but I think this thread is a bit pre mature.

No it isn't. It's  a weather board and you should be able to discuss anything related to weather. It is up to you if you want to post in it or not.

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