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Lead forecast times before our 12"+ snowstorms


gymengineer

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RE: 25 Jan 2000, I wrote up a short case summary when a student intern at COMET for their Case Study Library, which has recently gone away. 

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20020228231047/http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/c24_25jan2000/summary.htm

 

Lots of these are still viewable too:

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20020228230950/http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/c24_25jan2000/support.htm

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Conversely, 3/3 gave me only 4.2 (counting in the i**).

I'm happy to have nothing (given TWO funky feet).

This was the LWX bust forecast:

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

AS THE SFC FRONT CLEARS OUR SRN BORDER TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AHEAD

OF THE APPROACHING WAVE (NOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH STATES) ENTERS FROM

THE WEST AND IT HONESTLY LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW. HEAVY SNOW AT THAT.

THIS SHOULD CREATE A HEAVY SWATH OF SNOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE

CWA. BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE THIS SWATH WOULD BE FROM PETERSBURG WV TO

ANNAPOLIS AND BE AROUND ONE FOOT. THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTH TREND...SO

THIS HEAVIEST SWATH MAY END UP FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS

SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE OF MEETING THE CRITERIA OF 5 INCHES (6 INCHES

FOR OUR WRN FIVE COUNTIES) TO ISSUE THE WARNING. AGAIN...A LARGE

AREA SHOULD EXCEED THIS MINIMUM CRITERIA GREATLY. OUR SNOW

PROBABILITIES SUGGEST UP TO 15 INCHES WHICH IS QUITE RARE FOR

MARCH...BUT LOOKING MORE LIKELY!

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RE:

 

1.)  Anybody have a .gif or link to that run?  I have never seen that before.

 

2.)  I remember there was considerable amount of discussion about the climatology of big (Read:  10" + snowstorms) in December across the Mid Atlantic.  Also, there was herculean blocking downstream and some skeptics were prudent to think the storm would not come together as it thankfully did.  

I can't find that run, but I think you would love to read the forecasting section of the NWS Service Assessment for the storm. There's plenty of details about model performance. And it was fascinating how the Euro owned the MRF on this storm in the medium range. 

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf

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