ohleary Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 RE: 25 Jan 2000, I wrote up a short case summary when a student intern at COMET for their Case Study Library, which has recently gone away. https://web.archive.org/web/20020228231047/http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/c24_25jan2000/summary.htm Lots of these are still viewable too: https://web.archive.org/web/20020228230950/http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/c24_25jan2000/support.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Conversely, 3/3 gave me only 4.2 (counting in the i**). I'm happy to have nothing (given TWO funky feet). This was the LWX bust forecast: SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/... AS THE SFC FRONT CLEARS OUR SRN BORDER TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE (NOW OVER THE MID-SOUTH STATES) ENTERS FROM THE WEST AND IT HONESTLY LOOKS TO BE ALL SNOW. HEAVY SNOW AT THAT. THIS SHOULD CREATE A HEAVY SWATH OF SNOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE THIS SWATH WOULD BE FROM PETERSBURG WV TO ANNAPOLIS AND BE AROUND ONE FOOT. THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTH TREND...SO THIS HEAVIEST SWATH MAY END UP FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE OF MEETING THE CRITERIA OF 5 INCHES (6 INCHES FOR OUR WRN FIVE COUNTIES) TO ISSUE THE WARNING. AGAIN...A LARGE AREA SHOULD EXCEED THIS MINIMUM CRITERIA GREATLY. OUR SNOW PROBABILITIES SUGGEST UP TO 15 INCHES WHICH IS QUITE RARE FOR MARCH...BUT LOOKING MORE LIKELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This is an awesome thread, one of the best ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 RE: 1.) Anybody have a .gif or link to that run? I have never seen that before. 2.) I remember there was considerable amount of discussion about the climatology of big (Read: 10" + snowstorms) in December across the Mid Atlantic. Also, there was herculean blocking downstream and some skeptics were prudent to think the storm would not come together as it thankfully did. I can't find that run, but I think you would love to read the forecasting section of the NWS Service Assessment for the storm. There's plenty of details about model performance. And it was fascinating how the Euro owned the MRF on this storm in the medium range. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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