mdsnowlover Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 last night's 2 runs of the GFS looked best for us with rain to snow, and was consistent with the progressive nature of the flow this cold season I'll be surprised, but not too disappointed (been a decent winter so no complaints if a mid-MAR event fails), if the models don't all move closer to what the GFS is showing you think a 1025 high is going to cause suppression?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 you think a 1025 high is going to cause suppression?? that some but also the progressive nature of the flow will keep the systems from phasing as Bob just explained the Euro was doing the Euro loves to phase/amplify systems a lot in the day 5+ range, or so has been the case this cold season basically, I'm just figuring the pattern of the last month+ will prevail in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 that some but also the progressive nature of the flow will keep the systems from phasing as Bob just explained the Euro was doing the Euro loves to phase/amplify systems a lot in the day 5+ range, or so has been the case this cold season basically, I'm just figuring the pattern of the last month+ will prevail in the end thanks for your explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 that some but also the progressive nature of the flow will keep the systems from phasing as Bob just explained the Euro was doing the Euro loves to phase/amplify systems a lot in the day 5+ range, or so has been the case this cold season basically, I'm just figuring the pattern of the last month+ will prevail in the end I think these 2 panels speak volumes. And we're only 120 hours out. VERY different ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GFS storm is actually a result of the vort diving down west of hudson @ 120. Euro is phasing 2 completely different pieces to form the storm. Who knows what happens. Something in between I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'm mostly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS weaker and further south with the lp track. I'm kinda out but kinda in but mostly in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS weaker and further south with the lp track. I'm kinda out but kinda in but mostly in the middle. Still rain. Not sure which to root for. I think the GFS is a better solution for us if it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Still rain. Not sure which to root for. I think the GFS is a better solution for us if it's colder. it is, but the best one would be further south, colder, and stronger at this range, as we know, anything is possible didn't GFS lead the way with Monday's storm coming south to give us snow? I think it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I may be the biggest moron on the planet, but this isnt looking too much like the March 93 NESIS 5 superstorm? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 it is, but the best one would be further south, colder, and stronger at this range, as we know, anything is possible didn't GFS lead the way with Monday's storm coming south to give us snow? I think it did Problem with the GFS is it's all disjointed in the mid levels. I can only assume the Euro will "win" this battle in general. So I guess we root for the Euro but shifted east lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I may be the biggest moron on the planet, but this isnt looking too much like the March 93 NESIS 5 superstorm? Thoughts? I think people will look for a March 1993 every March just because it's March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Problem with the GFS is it's all disjointed in the mid levels. I can only assume the Euro will "win" this battle in general. So I guess we root for the Euro but shifted east lol. That's exactly where I'm at. Big amped up storm that passes underneath us and tracks just outside the bm. boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I think people will look for a March 1993 every March just because it's March. we need a march storm that analogs of Jan 25,2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Problem with the GFS is it's all disjointed in the mid levels. I can only assume the Euro will "win" this battle in general. So I guess we root for the Euro but shifted east lol. at this range, disjointed doesn't bother me any where as much as north vs. south I doubt we get a huge storm and you won't find any where that I said I thought we would I'm just looking for another 2-4" event for icing on this winter's cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I think people will look for a March 1993 every March just because it's March. True, but we are due. You know, it is a new century... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still wrapped and west and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still wrapped and west and rain. more like the gfs @ h5 though. Interaction with the lead vort south of us is less. We need a 75-100 mile south shift and we're in. HP to the north not impressive. Kinda on life support unless things start the trend by sunday at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still wrapped and west and rain. right here we want it at this range this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still wrapped and west and rain. i think it improved some...the low does track south of DC. We need it to track about 150 miles more south or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 more like the gfs @ h5 though. Interaction with the lead vort south of us is less. We need a 75-100 mile south shift and we're in. HP to the north not impressive. Kinda on life support unless things start the trend by sunday at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Warm rain > cold rain. Phasing on the Euro at least presents the opportunity for enhanced dynamics during/after the frontal passage that are worth tracking. Nothing worse IMO than watching 35 degree stratiform rain, hoping for a few wet, mangled flakes to finish it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 more like the gfs @ h5 though. Interaction with the lead vort south of us is less. We need a 75-100 mile south shift and we're in. HP to the north not impressive. Kinda on life support unless things start the trend by sunday at the latest. Yeah, it looks better, but still a rainer. Hell of a storm for the central PA folks though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 i think it improved some...the low does track south of DC. We need it to track about 150 miles more south or so South trend is real this year! I'm putting all our eggs in that basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is still wrapped and west and rain. Is it bad to "like" that assessment? I love snow...love tracking snow...lurked/learned here again all winter...but I'm so weary of snow and cold right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 just a reminder.....the Euro didn't shift to substantially colder for the 3/2-3/3 event until the 12Z run on 2/27, though there was some inconsequential movement colder in the 0Z 2/27 run if memory serves http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43040-march-madness-03032014-the-euro-abides/page-6 hence, if history was to repeat, we have another couple days before we see a full blown shift south EDIT: I note 12Z JMA today is essentially a whiff with only light precip to us and nothing of consequence in NE (the omen?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looks like the EPS moved south some? Not enough for us... but just moved south some compared to the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looks like the EPS moved south some? Not enough for us... but just moved south some compared to the 00z run not yet....it's not time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 not yet....it's not time I know Just remarking on how the south movement has begun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yea, eps are hideous verbatim but the tick south is a good thing. There were very few snowy members last night. We'll see how they look shortly. Yes, there is still a "chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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