Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS splits the energy, it also doesn't phase with the leftover energy over Texas, so you basically get a low forming at high latitude which is crappy for us... Ian, could you happen to post the EURO ensembles @ 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS splits the energy, it also doesn't phase with the leftover energy over Texas, so you basically get a low forming at high latitude which is crappy for us... Ian, could you happen to post the EURO ensembles @ 500mb? I only have the mean of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEFS seems to want to pass the low over our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Doesn't look like the GFS will be doing us any favors tonight to help us with the potential storm next week... if the GFS even has a storm at 144... which is weak as hell and looks nothing like 18z Rain showers for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Doesn't look like the GFS will be doing us any favors tonight to help us with the potential storm next week... if the GFS even has a storm at 144... which is weak as hell and looks nothing like 18z Rain showers for all! slp is not in a bad position, we just need the cold to come in stronger or faster still plenty of time http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=141ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_141_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 slp is not in a bad position, we just need the cold to come in stronger or faster still plenty of time I guess so.... but its nothing like the amped up runs of earlier It also left some of the s/w energy behind back in the SW as ORH stated in the SNE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I guess so.... but its nothing like the amped up runs of earlier It also left some of the s/w energy behind back in the SW as ORH stated in the SNE thread right....another storm after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 and there you go Yoda, rain to snow on the GFS trending baby, trending EDIT: and it only grazes NE....sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 and there you go Yoda, rain to snow on the GFS trending baby, trending EDIT: and it only grazes NE....sound familiar? For when? That 138 to 150 is pretty much all rain down here... and I dont see any systems right after through 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 For when? That 138 to 150 is pretty much all rain down here... and I dont see any systems right after through 216 by 150, it's snow http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=150ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_150_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 by 150, it's snow http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=150ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_150_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model I could see wet snow by 147 too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=147ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_147_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 by 150, it's snow http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=150ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_150_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Cutting it close with DCA at 33... prob just mood flakes or SnowTV as Bob called it DCA is 34 at 147 and 850 on down is straddling the zero line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 actually, it's almost snow at 144 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_144_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Just because its 33 doesn't mean it's not snow. It may not accumulate but it can snow obviously with higher temps than that. I know its snow... I mean all we will see is pretty much SnowTV with a wet ground from the earlier rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I know its snow... I mean all we will see is pretty much SnowTV with a wet ground from the earlier rain I think we're on the same page in that we only care about accumulating snow but snow falling is still better than cold rain in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Meh, not a great for big storm territory, it cut off the PAC wave and thus missed the PAC and the gulf s/w's. Northern stream only. Gets the job done for some with the back end but overall a meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Interesting 00z EURO tonight 120 -- 993 TX/OK border (central) 144 -- 991 extreme SW VA/SE Kentucky area 168 -- 981 E of Cape Cod ~100 miles I wish we had a 156 panel... looks like rain to snow to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I got the end of the cold -NAO Pattern all figured out. The transition will be gradual., with surges of warm air similar to what we will experience Saturday thru Wednesday, then a little cooler, then another warm surge, all the way into consensus springtime weather. There will be no pattern ending huge superstorm. Relax and enjoy the weekend. Get out the beer, the fine wine, the bbq, the grills, the shorts, the JD, and enjoy it. It's the only weather we have. Besides, It's March. This is money. Remember the Jebman called it first, the shot heard 'round the world'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Interesting 00z EURO tonight 120 -- 993 TX/OK border (central) 144 -- 991 extreme SW VA/SE Kentucky area 168 -- 981 E of Cape Cod ~100 miles I wish we had a 156 panel... looks like rain to snow to me by wxbell snowfall maps DCis right on the blue color so you may get a few inches maybe 4". Still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Interesting 00z EURO tonight 120 -- 993 TX/OK border (central) 144 -- 991 extreme SW VA/SE Kentucky area 168 -- 981 E of Cape Cod ~100 miles I wish we had a 156 panel... looks like rain to snow to me Overall, looks a bit south of the 12z run. With about 12 more Euro runs until gametime, who knows where things end up? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Eps looks awful. Bombs the low into Ohio I do buy a more amped solution here and it bothers me that any run with a really bombed out solution is also a warm one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 As stated above, Euro shows warm rain beginning Wed morning. Changing to cold heavy rain Wednesday night, finishing as snow Thursday morning. BWI gets nearly 1.5". Temperatures fall to lower 30s by Thursday morning. NAEFS also shows moderate/heavy rain to light snow scenario. It also shows a sizable warm up beginning on the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensembles are a disaster. Terrible low track and too late for much on the tail. However, 6z gfs shows another possibility. Departing low over the maritimes provides some confluence and hp just strong enough to the north to provide some cold and keep the track below us. Marginal as heck but there's some snow there. I think we have to root for a faster/weaker solution here. Big bomb isn't going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 i think this storm and this winter will end up finishing a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 i think this storm and this winter will end up finishing a disaster Nah, met winter ended with a bang. We're in bonus spring snow now. Fwiw- I think we get "some" snow out of the storm next week. You're in a better spot than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro ensembles are a disaster. Terrible low track and too late for much on the tail. However, 6z gfs shows another possibility. Departing low over the maritimes provides some confluence and hp just strong enough to the north to provide some cold and keep the track below us. Marginal as heck but there's some snow there. I think we have to root for a faster/weaker solution here. Big bomb isn't going to do it. when I look at Euro mos off Accuwx, day 7 qpf and temp numbers are eerily close to what they showed a week before Monday's event, just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 when I look at Euro mos off Accuwx, day 7 qpf and temp numbers are eerily close to what they showed a week before Monday's event, just sayin' Just comparing the h5 loops between the 0z euro and 6z gfs it's pretty safe to assume we have no idea how this is going to shake out. Pretty convoluted with multiple waves interacting. I can't even really venture a good guess which way I think it will go other than it prob won't be an all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sorry for the stupid question, will this turn into a Nor'easter as predicted or is it becoming another type of storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Just comparing the h5 loops between the 0z euro and 6z gfs it's pretty safe to assume we have no idea how this is going to shake out. Pretty convoluted with multiple waves interacting. I can't even really venture a good guess which way I think it will go other than it prob won't be an all snow event. last night's 2 runs of the GFS looked best for us with rain to snow, and was consistent with the progressive nature of the flow this cold season I'll be surprised, but not too disappointed (been a decent winter so no complaints if a mid-MAR event fails), if the models don't all move closer to what the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sorry for the stupid question, will this turn into a Nor'easter as predicted or is it becoming another type of storm? Multiple pieces of energy interacting. Right now it's not a classic noreaster as modeled. There's a southern stream vort tracking the gulf coast and a northern stream vort diving down. Euro amps up both for the most part and tries to bring them together in the lower oh valley into a more consolidated system that tracks basically overhead. GFS wan't to sort of wash out the southern vort and focus on the ns vort. Just enough confluence and hp above us to track the low below. The short story is if the ss system interacts then the mid levels are toast by the time a bigger storm gets going (euro). If the ss stays separate then we have a better chance at a modest colder storm. The evolution is tricky and will cause some model spray through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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