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March Medium-Long Range Discotheque


stormtracker

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GFS splits the energy, it also doesn't phase with the leftover energy over Texas, so you basically get a low forming at high latitude which is crappy for us...

 

Ian, could you happen to post the EURO ensembles @ 500mb? 

I only have the mean of that

 

post-1615-0-35984100-1394147406_thumb.pn

 

post-1615-0-70511300-1394146959_thumb.pn

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Doesn't look like the GFS will be doing us any favors tonight to help us with the potential storm next week... if the GFS even has a storm at 144... which is weak as hell and looks nothing like 18z :lol:

 

 Rain showers for all!

slp is not in a bad position, we just need the cold to come in stronger or faster

still plenty of time

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=141ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_141_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140307+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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slp is not in a bad position, we just need the cold to come in stronger or faster

still plenty of time

 

I guess so.... but its nothing like the amped up runs of earlier

 

It also left some of the s/w energy behind back in the SW as ORH stated in the SNE thread

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Cutting it close with DCA at 33... prob just mood flakes or SnowTV as Bob called it

 

DCA is 34 at 147 and 850 on down is straddling the zero line

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I know its snow... I mean all we will see is pretty much SnowTV with a wet ground from the earlier rain

I think we're on the same page in that we only care about accumulating snow but snow falling is still better than cold rain in my mind.

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I got the end of the cold -NAO Pattern all figured out.

 

The transition will be gradual., with surges of warm air similar to what we will experience Saturday thru Wednesday, then a little cooler, then another warm surge, all the way into consensus springtime weather. There will be no pattern ending huge superstorm.

 

Relax and enjoy the weekend. Get out the beer, the fine wine, the bbq, the grills, the shorts, the JD, and enjoy it.

 

It's the only weather we have.

 

Besides, It's March.

 

This is money. Remember the Jebman called it first, the shot heard 'round the world'.

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Interesting 00z EURO tonight

 

120 -- 993 TX/OK border (central)

144 -- 991 extreme SW VA/SE Kentucky area

168 -- 981 E of Cape Cod ~100 miles

 

I wish we had a 156 panel... looks like rain to snow to me

by wxbell snowfall maps DCis right on the blue color so you may get a few inches maybe 4". Still early

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Interesting 00z EURO tonight

 

120 -- 993 TX/OK border (central)

144 -- 991 extreme SW VA/SE Kentucky area

168 -- 981 E of Cape Cod ~100 miles

 

I wish we had a 156 panel... looks like rain to snow to me

Overall,  looks a bit south of the 12z run.   With about 12 more Euro runs until gametime, who knows where things end up?

 

MDstorm

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As stated above, Euro shows warm rain beginning Wed morning. Changing to cold heavy rain Wednesday night, finishing as snow Thursday morning.  BWI gets nearly 1.5". Temperatures fall to lower 30s by Thursday morning.

 

NAEFS also shows moderate/heavy rain to light snow scenario.  It also shows a sizable warm up beginning on the 15th.

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Euro ensembles are a disaster. Terrible low track and too late for much on the tail. However, 6z gfs shows another possibility. Departing low over the maritimes provides some confluence and hp just strong enough to the north to provide some cold and keep the track below us. Marginal as heck but there's some snow there.

I think we have to root for a faster/weaker solution here. Big bomb isn't going to do it.

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Euro ensembles are a disaster. Terrible low track and too late for much on the tail. However, 6z gfs shows another possibility. Departing low over the maritimes provides some confluence and hp just strong enough to the north to provide some cold and keep the track below us. Marginal as heck but there's some snow there.

I think we have to root for a faster/weaker solution here. Big bomb isn't going to do it.

when I look at Euro mos off Accuwx, day 7 qpf and temp numbers are eerily close to what they showed a week before Monday's event, just sayin'

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when I look at Euro mos off Accuwx, day 7 qpf and temp numbers are eerily close to what they showed a week before Monday's event, just sayin'

Just comparing the h5 loops between the 0z euro and 6z gfs it's pretty safe to assume we have no idea how this is going to shake out. Pretty convoluted with multiple waves interacting. I can't even really venture a good guess which way I think it will go other than it prob won't be an all snow event.

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Just comparing the h5 loops between the 0z euro and 6z gfs it's pretty safe to assume we have no idea how this is going to shake out. Pretty convoluted with multiple waves interacting. I can't even really venture a good guess which way I think it will go other than it prob won't be an all snow event.

last night's 2 runs of the GFS looked best for us with rain to snow, and was consistent with the progressive nature of the flow this cold season

I'll be surprised, but not too disappointed (been a decent winter so no complaints if a mid-MAR event fails), if the models don't all move closer to what the GFS is showing

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Sorry for the stupid question, will this turn into a Nor'easter as predicted or is it becoming another type of storm?

Multiple pieces of energy interacting. Right now it's not a classic noreaster as modeled. There's a southern stream vort tracking the gulf coast and a northern stream vort diving down. Euro amps up both for the most part and tries to bring them together in the lower oh valley into a more consolidated system that tracks basically overhead. GFS wan't to sort of wash out the southern vort and focus on the ns vort. Just enough confluence and hp above us to track the low below.

The short story is if the ss system interacts then the mid levels are toast by the time a bigger storm gets going (euro). If the ss stays separate then we have a better chance at a modest colder storm. The evolution is tricky and will cause some model spray through the weekend.

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