gymengineer Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 getting there...plenty of time http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest Wow on the coincidence--- from the other thread about lead times: "From 5 days out valid for 12Z 3/13/93, the Euro had a 995 mb low near New Jersey.." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's a great run irt a big storm. 75-100 mile shift s in the track and we get hit on the back pretty good. Even verbatim it would be a big storm so that part is cool. Just not good for us...yet Yup..983 right on the NJ coast...I think a subtle shift (and this time range) is possible. All of our previous good storms look warm and wet at this range too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Wow on the coincidence--- from the other thread about lead times: "From 5 days out valid for 12Z 3/13/93, the Euro had a 995 mb low near New Jersey.." The orgins here are different from the 3/93 storm. But still, it's a massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's a great run irt a big storm. 75-100 mile shift s in the track and we get hit on the back pretty good. Even verbatim it would be a big storm so that part is cool. Just not good for us...yet Yeah... a nudge S and E like 100 miles and we do pretty well... 168 the 0c 850 line is paralleling I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The orgins here are different from the 3/93 storm. But still, it's a massive storm. Yup, not a noreaster with a 12' storm surge in FL for sure as depicted. It's just an amazing coincidence for that one frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 "A Storm" at this range is a good sign.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looking at h5 vort panels it's easy to see why it treks overhead. A little more dig and more of a pos tilt and we are seriously in business. Considering how the last storm evolved as we closed in, any option is on the table. I personally favor rain/snow attm. Not sure about our prospects for a higher impact event. We're getting late into our climo window but it's been an unusual year to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 "A Storm" at this range is a good sign.. Indeed. Weren't the 00z EPS last night good? Or did they suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yup, not a noreaster with a 12' storm surge in FL for sure as depicted. It's just an amazing coincidence for that one frame. I'd imagine there are a fair amount of nonstorms that also have that coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's pretty amazing looking at the ao year to date and lining up our snows. Every decent event happened during a neg phase or on the drop. Interestingly the ku was only on a drop but other factors hit is home. Leading into next weeks potential we have another progged drop in both the ao/nao and a spike in the pna. If heights in the hl trend towards a more robust -ao with at least a neutral nao then our chances improve just looking at stats and not the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Partial weenie card: The Euro does like to wind things up a little too tight at this range. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Since HM also had so much insight last storm, curious his thoughts as well.. no offense Bob or others, but he seemed to latch on to something I could not believe and then it came true! He was sharing thoughts yesterday like that as well, curious if he continues to see things potentially lining up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If we can delay this until the 16th I think we'd be in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Indeed. Weren't the 00z EPS last night good? Or did they suck? EPS run last night was an absolute bomb with a track from the mnts of NC to Boston, 984mb over DC, to 972 just off Boston. Though, it could have been bigger as the main arm of the PV swung 12hrs behind the PAC s/w that spawned the main LP. /waits for ji to scream like a teenage girl at the hottest boy band concert.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Since HM also had so much insight last storm, curious his thoughts as well.. no offense Bob or others, but he seemed to latch on to something I could not believe and then it came true! He was sharing thoughts yesterday like that as well, curious if he continues to see things potentially lining up. Yes, he was refering to the 13 thru 18 being ripe with potenial. I'm sure he will stop in with his thoughts and analysis . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 EPS run last night was an absolute bomb with a track from the mnts of NC to Boston, 984mb over DC, to 972 just off Boston. Though, it could have been bigger as the main arm of the PV swung 12hrs behind the PAC s/w that spawned the main LP. /waits for ji to scream like a teenage girl at the hottest boy band concert.. I hope today's 12Z run is further south east. A giant rain bomb is a sucky way to end winter. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I hope today's 12Z run is further south east. A giant rain bomb is a sucky way to end winter. MDstorm Just end it. How doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 euro ens mean is pretty good.. better than last night for us. low exits coast at nc/va border.. rain to start but snow on back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 euro ens mean is pretty good.. better than last night for us. low exits coast at nc/va border.. rain to start but snow on back end. How big is the ensemble's back end? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How big is the ensemble's back end? MDstorm as is, not huge. but it's a decent track at least. the low is only like 1000mb in the mean .. main impact PA/NY, but a few inches prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How big is the ensemble's back end? MDstorm Jay Lo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ian summed it up. Rain to snow on the means. RoR improvement though. Could end up snowing in ATL before it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ian summed it up. Rain to snow on the means. RoR improvement though. Could end up snowing in ATL before it's all said and done. Wouldn't mind that... 2-4 to end the season on a high note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GFS/EURO focusing on different waves, EURO even phases the shortwave with the left over energy from Day 3, GFS splits the wave and sends a piece East and forms the storm on that....a long way to go to have any idea on anything really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I hope today's 12Z run is further south east. A giant rain bomb is a sucky way to end winter. MDstorm If it is a giant rain bomb, then we just say winter ended 3 days ago and whala! we end winter on a high note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 the euro ensemble members are back wxbellers. needless to say there are a lot of different solutions, so perhaps more east than west: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 How big is the ensemble's back end? MDstorm Hear about the model that said "Does this ensemble make my back end look big?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Jay Lo? . I am waiting for them to look like Kim Kardashian then i am all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 gfs low moves basically due east thru the region while intensifying tho it's keying in on a different wave than the euro i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 gfs low moves basically due east thru the region while intensifying tho it's keying in on a different wave than the euro i guess gfs_ptype_slp_ma_49.png That is some warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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