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March Medium-Long Range Discotheque


stormtracker

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Wow on the coincidence--- from the other thread about lead times:

"From 5 days out valid for 12Z 3/13/93, the Euro had a 995 mb low near New Jersey.."

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It's a great run irt a big storm. 75-100 mile shift s in the track and we get hit on the back pretty good. Even verbatim it would be a big storm so that part is cool. Just not good for us...yet

Yup..983 right on the NJ coast...I think a subtle shift (and this time range) is possible.   All of our previous good storms look warm and wet at this range too.

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It's a great run irt a big storm. 75-100 mile shift s in the track and we get hit on the back pretty good. Even verbatim it would be a big storm so that part is cool. Just not good for us...yet

 

Yeah... a nudge S and E like 100 miles and we do pretty well... 168 the 0c 850 line is paralleling I-95

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Looking at h5 vort panels it's easy to see why it treks overhead. A little more dig and more of a pos tilt and we are seriously in business. Considering how the last storm evolved as we closed in, any option is on the table. I personally favor rain/snow attm. Not sure about our prospects for a higher impact event. We're getting late into our climo window but it's been an unusual year to say the least.

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Yup, not a noreaster with a 12' storm surge in FL for sure as depicted. It's just an amazing coincidence for that one frame.

 

I'd imagine there are a fair amount of nonstorms that also have that coincidence. 

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It's pretty amazing looking at the ao year to date and lining up our snows. Every decent event happened during a neg phase or on the drop. Interestingly the ku was only on a drop but other factors hit is home. Leading into next weeks potential we have another progged drop in both the ao/nao and a spike in the pna. If heights in the hl trend towards a more robust -ao with at least a neutral nao then our chances improve just looking at stats and not the panels. 

 

 

post-2035-0-29612000-1394132030_thumb.jp

 

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Indeed.  Weren't the 00z EPS last night good?  Or did they suck?

 

EPS run last night was an absolute bomb with a track from the mnts of NC to Boston, 984mb over DC, to 972 just off Boston.

 

Though, it could have been bigger as the main arm of the PV swung 12hrs behind the PAC s/w that spawned the main LP.

 

/waits for ji to scream like a teenage girl at the hottest boy band concert..

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Since HM also had so much insight last storm, curious his thoughts as well.. no offense Bob or others, but he seemed to latch on to something I could not believe and then it came true! He was sharing thoughts yesterday like that as well, curious if he continues to see things potentially lining up.

Yes, he was refering to the 13 thru 18 being ripe with potenial. I'm sure he will stop in with his thoughts and analysis .

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EPS run last night was an absolute bomb with a track from the mnts of NC to Boston, 984mb over DC, to 972 just off Boston.

 

Though, it could have been bigger as the main arm of the PV swung 12hrs behind the PAC s/w that spawned the main LP.

 

/waits for ji to scream like a teenage girl at the hottest boy band concert..

I hope today's 12Z run is further south east.  A giant rain bomb is a sucky way to end winter.

 

MDstorm

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How big is the ensemble's back end?

 

MDstorm

as is, not huge. but it's a decent track at least. the low is only like 1000mb in the mean .. main impact PA/NY, but a few inches prob. 

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