psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Strong signal still on eps. 156 low over sw va panhandle. 168 secondary over Norfolk primary dying over southern wv. 180 low just east of acy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm still not sold on a storm at this range (just too far out), but all I see is wave after wave of arctic cold and low after low tracking up the coast or down out of Canada on the GFS. Just need one pair of those to coincide and we get a storm. Two of them look promising this morning for snow, around 174 hrs (glancing blow) and 300 hrs are the big ones. A few clippers are in there too, mainly in the 180 to 300 hour period. So when will spring start? We're looking 3 weeks into March and still no sign of warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm all in for cold and snow but as I see it we had our season finale on Monday. I'll even take a 93 rerun next week. However past next week it's gotta be done. Nothing sucks more than a frigid opening day at Oriole Park. The month between winter and spring is the worst. At least the month between summer and fall has football. Sent from Chestnut Ridge N. Baltimore County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 this is the most important storm of my life Then it's doomed to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not a model expert by any means, but it appears the storm isn't indicated on this GFS run. New England gets smoked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not a model expert by any means, but it appears the storm isn't indicated on this GFS run. New England gets smoked though. It all depends on the track of the vort/slp. Euro ensembles are mixed. If the vort/slp tracks below us through southern wva/va then we would get some snow. Very much unresolved. Op runs of the globals will continue to flip around for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not a model expert by any means, but it appears the storm isn't indicated on this GFS run. New England gets smoked though. Great run for NYC and north. Reminds me of the early look for the March 2-3 storm. That obviously trended south for us. I'm not so sure this one will. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 It all depends on the track of the vort/slp. Euro ensembles are mixed. If the vort/slp tracks below us through southern wva/va then we would get some snow. Very much unresolved. Op runs of the globals will continue to flip around for days. Yeah, GFS is definitely flipping around. This run, we're on the bad side of the boundary and the storm is a lot sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It all depends on the track of the vort/slp. Euro ensembles are mixed. If the vort/slp tracks below us through southern wva/va then we would get some snow. Very much unresolved. Op runs of the globals will continue to flip around for days. though pretty much garbage in prior winters, the CFS2 has done well this winter, and really well since JAN that said, the MAR precip map from the CFS2 is below and that, along with the modeling history of Monday's event suggests to me the storm will be south of what the GFS shows today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, GFS is definitely flipping around. This run, we're on the bad side of the boundary and the storm is a lot sooner. We have a fair chance here. How much is anyone's guess. Trends over the last month have been to start north and end south on guidance. I have no reason to believe that might not happen again. I don't like the euro's multi low depiction. We aren't going to do well there. A simple vort passing south with slp out in front can do it. It would bring down sufficient cold with it even if it's rain/mix to snow. I'm watching it but with no real clarity about strength/placement/timing/evolution it's pretty easy to be indifferent now. Maybe we'll start to see some sort of consensus this weekend. Then tracking run over run changes becomes a more meaningful exercise. Anecdotally....it seems to want to find a way to snow around here nowadays. I sorta agree with Mitch. Trends would favor a more southern track. But even with that, if a convoluted strung out evolution happens we can easily be all rain. We need a consolidated punch. I'm interested in what the euro analogs show later today. Hopefully matt posts them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This winter is starting to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This winter is starting to suck Must be payback for the first 90 % of this winter. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This winter is starting to suck met winter's ova'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z GEFS is just interesting enough to make me think maybe... just maybe... 138 -- 1001 L N KY 144 -- 1000 L C WV 150 -- 998 L C VA (RIC area) 156 -- 996 E of ACY ~100 miles or so 162 -- 994 L by 40/70 benchmark or so 138 and 144 DCA 850s are +2... ~+1 at 150... and ~-4 at 156... so rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ggem has low tracking just south of the north pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ji is just trying to piss the storm off so bad it has to hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not terrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GEFS is an improvement over 6z but still only a couple solutions that are acceptable. The majority of solutions are wet. Maybe 1 all snow and a couple rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not terrible? Its meh. The image before that has it near RIC... and its prob raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Its meh. The image before that has it near RIC... and its prob raining here Yeah good point, not looking so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not terrible? Depends where you are. Temps are even marginal out here. It is some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 00z euro ensembles more snowy solutions for me than prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 00z euro ensembles more snowy solutions for me than prior runs although it would be nice to maintain that trend, the 0Z ensembles will be meaningless in 3 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 although it would be nice to maintain that trend, the 0Z ensembles will be meaningless in 3 hrs I don't think so. 12-hours isn't that long a time period when you're talking 6-8 days and having ensembles from simulations initialized at different times adds value and lessens noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't think so. 12-hours isn't that long a time period when you're talking 6-8 days and having ensembles from simulations initialized at different times adds value and lessens noise. the fact that it's out 6-8 days gives it little weight in the first place and so every run closer to the potential event becomes better than the prior one imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looks like another massive (rain)storm coming on the Euro as the low moves ENE through KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Looks like another massive (rain)storm coming on the Euro as the low moves ENE through KY getting there...plenty of time http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 After some rain, looks like OH/N. PA get hit good. I mean, given seasonal trends, getting this farther south isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 getting there...plenty of time http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf&le=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=6day&cu=latest It's a pretty big storm with some hits of redevelopment at 168, but by then it's too late for us. Probably gonna smack NE good though. EDIT: Just saw the link (I was only out to 156 before)...im at 180 now..that puppy destroy upstate NY, Maine and probably SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's a great run irt a big storm. 75-100 mile shift s in the track and we get hit on the back pretty good. Even verbatim it would be a big storm so that part is cool. Just not good for us...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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