cpasi Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 DOES Euro depict and thing like a rain to snow event..after the storm is passed, it looks like 850 crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Having said that...this is the closest I've seen March come in a long time for a 93' similarity. And as you all know, this threat window has shown up on my radar for a while now because it is intimately involved with the complex tropical-stratospheric waves/patterns. And really, the entire 3/12-3/18 period is threatening because this is a time of peak PNA that begins retrograding with cold air introduced into pattern. It will probably lead to a break / warm-up toward the 20th or so but I have feeling there is one last cold push waiting thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro has the storm, looks like the GGEM though...runs right over top of us. It's a pretty big storm Well at least we know that the storm will not be tracking right over top of us. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Traitor!! Shun the nonbeliever!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 DOES Euro depict and thing like a rain to snow event..after the storm is passed, it looks like 850 crash I cant tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I cant tell. DC snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I want this thing starting out as far north as possible, so that when the south trend kicks in, the storm won't be too suppressed. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I cant tell. LOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I want this thing starting out as far north as possible, so that when the south trend kicks in, the storm won't be too suppressed. MDstorm just thinking the same thing. this is the second storm modeled north in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The storm out west was a bit faster, thus the HP was a bit delayed. Kind of like a race between the wave out west and the polar jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It'll be on the Euro Whatcha got over there? TARDIS? DeLorian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro looks similar to vd 2007 with the storm track. I would imagine there's a similar jackpot area in nrn pa and upstate ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 Whatcha got over there? TARDIS? DeLorian? Phone Booth sans Bill and Ted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro looks similar to vd 2007 with the storm track. I would imagine there's a similar jackpot area in nrn pa and upstate ny. correct, but the important thing is the setup is the same on each of these runs (except the GFS that seems clueless right now). The storm, although north this run, still bombs out but is also forced to slide east under high pressure that is locked in. Yes this run it happens 150 miles too far north for the area, but there is no way the models are going to correctly peg the exact latitude that this system is going to end up at from 10 days out. I think its safe to say there is likely to be a significantly amplified system along the east coast during this time period. Even the GFS keeps popping something just cant decide which shortwave to do it with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Whatcha got over there? TARDIS? DeLorian? He's been channeling katodog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Key word: Timing. Especially in March, need the timing between the wave out west and the wave riding along the Polar Jet (helps enforce the HP) to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Key word: Timing. Especially in March, need the timing between the wave out west and the wave riding along the Polar Jet (helps enforce the HP) to be good. unless we have a 3 std deviation -nao block like 2010 timing is crucial for any and every snow threat. The very nature of how we can get snow in this area makes that a universal. Since we are rarely north enough to get arctic boundary snows most of our significant events will be from warm air overrunning the polar boundary. That's delicate as not enough resistance and we warm and too much and the storm is suppressed. It's very rare that we ever have a threat that is truly a high probability outside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Looks to stay cold (and maybe active?) next week? Begin. If you're gonna start these long range threads, they're gonna have to deliver better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 3/13/93 is top 11-15 day Euro ens analog and top 5 for day 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 3/13/93 is top 11-15 day Euro ens analog and top 5 for day 6-10 MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Nice storm on GFS @ 192, Wave kind of develops on the stalled front with a potent shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Some afternoon BS 18z model porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm in if there is a superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm in if there is a superstorm triple phase or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm in if there is a superstorm Blizzard of '14 baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Lots of agreement on the 18z GFS individuals for a big storm during this time period, a lot of sicko solutions on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Weather equivalent of Sharknado coming our way. L's instead of flying sharks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The usual suspects hype so much it makes us numb to it but this pattern is actually locked and loaded. That doesn't mean anyone's backyard is likely to get a foot of snow but the threat of a historic storm is high in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm in if there is a superstorm The Southeast would get tornadoes and there'd be massive paste snows in the Apps and west. We'd get 3" of rain at 34 degrees. I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Unless we got superstorm snows. Then I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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