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March Medium-Long Range Discotheque


stormtracker

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Having said that...this is the closest I've seen March come in a long time for a 93' similarity. And as you all know, this threat window has shown up on my radar for a while now because it is intimately involved with the complex tropical-stratospheric waves/patterns. And really, the entire 3/12-3/18 period is threatening because this is a time of peak PNA that begins retrograding with cold air introduced into pattern. It will probably lead to a break / warm-up toward the 20th or so but I have feeling there is one last cold push waiting thereafter.

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Euro looks similar to vd 2007 with the storm track. I would imagine there's a similar jackpot area in nrn pa and upstate ny.

correct, but the important thing is the setup is the same on each of these runs (except the GFS that seems  clueless right now).  The storm, although north this run, still bombs out but is also forced to slide east under high pressure that is locked in.  Yes this run it happens 150 miles too far north for the area, but there is no way the models are going to correctly peg the exact latitude that this system is going to end up at from 10 days out.  I think its safe to say there is likely to be a significantly amplified system along the east coast during this time period.  Even the GFS keeps popping something just cant decide which shortwave to do it with. 

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Key word: Timing. Especially in March, need the timing between the wave out west and the wave riding along the Polar Jet (helps enforce the HP) to be good.

unless we have a 3 std deviation -nao block like 2010 timing is crucial for any and every snow threat. The very nature of how we can get snow in this area makes that a universal. Since we are rarely north enough to get arctic boundary snows most of our significant events will be from warm air overrunning the polar boundary. That's delicate as not enough resistance and we warm and too much and the storm is suppressed. It's very rare that we ever have a threat that is truly a high probability outside 48 hours.
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