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March Medium-Long Range Discotheque


stormtracker

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In case anyone is wondering, 0z GFS hits the east coast (including us) for the Mar 13/14 thingy.

 

Heavy wet snowstorm 9.5 days away ;)

 

Its a weak signal on the 00z GEFS, but it would appear a few members must agree with the OP on having a storm in the time period

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lol at the 00z EURO for the March 13-14 storm... there is a CAD signal as well fwiw

 

192 -- 1001 L on the border where MS/TN/AR meet

216 -- 995 L 50 to 100 miles directly east in the Atlantic off of the VA/NC border

240 -- 976 L in the Gulf of Maine or ~200 miles ENE of BOS

 

I don't see surface temps or precip maps... but 850s at 216 are fine for all but S MD (sorry Wes) :lol:

MRB/HGR -8... IAD -6... BWI to DCA to CHO -3/-4... EZF -1

 

Pretty sure most of us would enjoy a massive snowstorm to end the winter season if the EURO played out exactly as this run shows unless the surface is too warm

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the 00z euro looks good. 00z euro control even better but the ensemble mean isnt as great. Several solutions show nice snow...but many do not. Long way to go

 

edit: lot of wet solutions but not all are white

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The PNA ridge is impressive and obviously the cold air source is too. There are also some similarities to past mid-march events where tropical forcing was stagnant near Dateline as KW/weak MJO came through IO-Indo. Just because there are similarities to 1993 in these aspects, doesn't mean you'll mimic the superstorm. We can just wind up with a normal Miller A or less. Plenty of CPC analogs showing up that were zzzz...

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One major issue for a 93' comparison is the Bering Sea. This year has a giant polar vortex which does a few things:

1. Limits the extent of Arctic Air intrusion for triple phasing

2. Sends frequent s/w into PNA ridge

3. Could reduce PNA IF it trends east.

In the 78' and 93' setup, there was a giant high here which, in combination with the PNA, allowed for a smooth wave amplification (without interference) and Arctic Air from the N.P. to drop down.

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