Heisy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The fun part about getting some big cold blasts in late March is if they are timed right/phased, some of them can turn into complete long-duration bombs. April 1997 for example. The EURO long range is about as good a setup as you can get this time of year. If there was some stronger energy down south around Day 6-7 I could imagine a phasing situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 24-26 March triple phaser discussion is here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43223-late-march-wintry-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 looks like a decent track.. not sure if WxBell has actual MSLP maybe bob knows eta: I guess that is MSLP but hard to read. eps_mslpa_c_noram_39.png eps_mslpa_c_noram_41.png Bring it on big-time! I believe now! I Believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 Ready for some JB hype? Arctic blast coming to Eastern US – likely to be the coldest opening to calendar spring in at least 50 years Posted on March 17, 2014 by Anthony Watts Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented: I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March. and [The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least. Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps: Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF: ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal. He added: Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/17/eastern-us-arctic-blast-coming-likely-to-be-the-coldest-opening-to-calender-spring-in-at-least-50-years/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 mid-april hecs -- finally get our block in time for real spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 mid-april hecs -- finally get our block in time for real spring? eps_m_z500a_c_noram_55.png Frame-worthy picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 One more big storm and I have to move this winter from 4th to 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yeah baby warmistas unite!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Am I missing something? Weren't we progged to see aob temps through the end of the month? Suddenly Spring starts this weekend? I've heard people say before that big storms can change a pattern but I don't know if that is true. This isn't one of those situations, right? Progressive flow. Big storms don't have much of an effect past 3 days. On the means the remainder of the month will likely be aob. Pleasant weather is on tap starting friday. We'll get some annoying fronts during the first 3rd of Apr from what I'm seeing. The door seems to be closing on big - departures tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Progressive flow. Big storms don't have much of an effect past 3 days. On the means the remainder of the month will likely be aob. Pleasant weather is on tap starting friday. We'll get some annoying fronts during the first 3rd of Apr from what I'm seeing. The door seems to be closing on big - departures tho hallelujah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 hallelujah Today was brilliant. Almost too warm for recreation but I'm warm core. I plan on taking storms more seriously this year. Time to learn the pattern recognition. Not just talking severe bit storms in general. I decided to keep wxbell through the warm season. Need to get money's worth. Prepare for lots of questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Today was brilliant. Almost too warm for recreation but I'm warm core. I plan on taking storms more seriously this year. Time to learn the pattern recognition. Not just talking severe bit storms in general. I decided to keep wxbell through the warm season. Need to get money's worth. Prepare for lots of questions haha, figured we'd get you on board eventually. maybe by then I'll be able to find the mslp ens mean maps for the euro. i swear I've spent an hour looking and can't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Today was brilliant. Almost too warm for recreation but I'm warm core. I plan on taking storms more seriously this year. Time to learn the pattern recognition. Not just talking severe bit storms in general. I decided to keep wxbell through the warm season. Need to get money's worth. Prepare for lots of questions You won't be disappointed. It's a very different atmosphere, no pun intended Welcome aboard the SS Convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 haha, figured we'd get you on board eventually. maybe by then I'll be able to find the mslp ens mean maps for the euro. i swear I've spent an hour looking and can't find them. Wxbell has ens mslp anom maps: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014032212/noram/eps_mslpa_noram_stamp.php Great tool inside of 8 days but becomes quite muddy and useless after. Doesn't have the pretty "L"s on the maps but I love the panels. You've probably looked at them though so maybe I've been calling them by the wrong name. My approach this spring is to start with the easy stuff. Closed ull's, sharp vorts, and strong thermal boundary stuff. Then get into mesoscale later once I can easily identify the bigger ticket items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 You won't be disappointed. It's a very different atmosphere, no pun intended Welcome aboard the SS Convection. I'm in. You guys crushed the chase stuff last year. Ian's mother ship photo is still my wallpaper. It's time to broaden my horizons with interesting weather. I'm a 1 trick pony on here with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wxbell has ens mslp anom maps: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014032212/noram/eps_mslpa_noram_stamp.php Great tool inside of 8 days but becomes quite muddy and useless after. Doesn't have the pretty "L"s on the maps but I love the panels. You've probably looked at them though so maybe I've been calling them by the wrong name. My approach this spring is to start with the easy stuff. Closed ull's, sharp vorts, and strong thermal boundary stuff. Then get into mesoscale later once I can easily identify the bigger ticket items. Ryan Maue posted one yesterday and then Eric Fisher posted one today. https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/447472881098690560 Thought maybe they weren't live yet but not sure where Eric got it if not. It's a great map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Those have to be new or for certain eyes only. No chance I missed them all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Those have to be new or for certain eyes only. No chance I missed them all season It is new, Ryan just mentioned it yesterday but haven't been able to find it myself. Not 100% sure it's live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It is new, Ryan just mentioned it yesterday but haven't been able to find it myself. Not 100% sure it's live. If they aren't teed up for us geeks next year I'm filing class action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Better to share maps than to sell them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Better to share maps than to sell them. Rand McNally aint no nonprofit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Gfs getting less warm in the extended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Gfs getting less warm in the extended? Yea, gefs and euro ens have been signaling a more variable pattern. Alternating cool/warm. Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I posted this in the finale thread. Teleconnections are starting to point towards a -nao/ao combo in early april. Cold rain and fog or an April miracle..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I posted this in the finale thread. Teleconnections are starting to point towards a -nao/ao combo in early april. Cold rain and fog or an April miracle..... I need 2.7 inches to break 80 for the year. I am going to get it one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I need 2.7 inches to break 80 for the year. I am going to get it one way or the other. You might break 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I am expecting a variety of weather in April. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I posted this in the finale thread. Teleconnections are starting to point towards a -nao/ao combo in early april. Cold rain and fog or an April miracle..... Sounds fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I love the idea of a -nao/-ao in early April. If we can't get snow in April then I want dark clouds, fog, rain and plenty of refreshing cool air, say highs in the mid 30s with lows around 33, a delightful northerly breeze and the sweetest early April weather I have ever experienced in 50 years. It beats the hell out of high spring conditions. Please let us get a month long negative nao and negative ao well into May. I HATE hot weather with a vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Looking more and more like a short wavelength variable period on tap. Looks like we stand a chance at some of the warmest temps we've seen since the Dec torch to close out the month. Maybe 70's for a day or 2 centered around the 29th-2nd of April but it looks to be short lived. The -nao signal is pretty strong but it's going to battle the pac. Low heights in the npac and west coast at times will offset having an anomalous ec trough. Early April looks like a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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