hosj III Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The GFS looks like it tries to give us a transient Greenland block just in time for PD3. I'm out for next week but all in for SPD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 interesting article Wes, but we don't want a super EMI number....94/95 seems to have been the strongest, and we know how that winter went but 09/10 was a strong one too, so like any enso feature, raw index numbers alone will not tell the whole story on the winter I'm psyched for next winter I'm psyched for next winter as well. Granted, it will be difficult to beat such a +PNA that we had, i.e. if I'm a betting man, it probably won't be as cold overall for DJF. Now, the good news: We all got above average snowfall without the benefit of anything more than transitional blocking. No real strong/persistent -NAO. And of course, no El Nino either. 2013-14 overall was the winter for Miller B's that, for a change, did quite well for the DC area, and did even better north of I-70. So, here's to probably a not-as-cold 2014-15 winter, with probably not as many 3+ inch snowfall events. But, I'd like to think we'd have a better shot at more Miller A type systems, at least more than 1 that would give a widespread 6-12+ area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Trying hard not to bite on the 00z Euro at 240hr. Seems like the 17th storm is delayed by a day or so. Goes BOOM along the coast of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I am starting to wonder how many convoluted -NAO setups simply segued into normal spring weather. Will this year's be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Trying hard not to bite on the 00z Euro at 240hr. Seems like the 17th storm is delayed by a day or so. Goes BOOM along the coast of VA. considering the GFS also has a storm that makes it that much more believable. Time will tell !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm psyched for next winter as well. Granted, it will be difficult to beat such a +PNA that we had, i.e. if I'm a betting man, it probably won't be as cold overall for DJF. Now, the good news: We all got above average snowfall without the benefit of anything more than transitional blocking. No real strong/persistent -NAO. And of course, no El Nino either. 2013-14 overall was the winter for Miller B's that, for a change, did quite well for the DC area, and did even better north of I-70. So, here's to probably a not-as-cold 2014-15 winter, with probably not as many 3+ inch snowfall events. But, I'd like to think we'd have a better shot at more Miller A type systems, at least more than 1 that would give a widespread 6-12+ area-wide. CFS2 has been consistent with keeping the warmth in the Gulf of Alaska (thru fall of 2014, its max range) that has fueled the ridge in Alaska this winter, so I'll keep the faith http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wind looks impressive for Wednesday into Thursday. Sustained 25 mph ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS says 62 tomorrow. Add 8 degrees. This time of the year temps always rocket well above MOS. 500 dollars says we hit at least 71 tomorrow, Washington DC hits the middle 70s. 1)Laser sun angle 2)No snow on ground (except in Delaney Valley where there are still 2 inches of snow) 3)Spring has definitely arrived. Temperatures will skyrocket from here. Washington DC will score at least one high temp of 85 by end of March. In April, DC will score one high of 93. Moral of the story......Break out the spring wardrobe. the grills, the bbq and millions of kegs of ice cold beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS says 62 tomorrow. Add 8 degrees. This time of the year temps always rocket well above MOS. 500 dollars says we hit at least 71 tomorrow, Washington DC hits the middle 70s. 1)Laser sun angle 2)No snow on ground (except in Delaney Valley where there are still 2 inches of snow) 3)Spring has definitely arrived. Temperatures will skyrocket from here. Washington DC will score at least one high temp of 85 by end of March. In April, DC will score one high of 93. Moral of the story......Break out the spring wardrobe. the grills, the bbq and millions of kegs of ice cold beer. Well that is very Jebtomistic ... I hope your are right except for the 90's. I grilled yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Ugh... seems like GFS wants to keep us locked in a 30s and low 40s temp pattern for highs from the 17th and on through the rest of the run it appears... ugly... do not want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Ugh... seems like GFS wants to keep us locked in a 30s and low 40s temp pattern for highs from the 17th and on through the rest of the run it appears... ugly... do not want GFS long range temps = not dependable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GFS long range temps = not dependable. It's probably going to be cooler than avg on the whole for a while still but the cold shot coming this week initially looked more extensive than it does now. The next one looks a bit more significant from here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 there has been a trough over or just east of Japan all winter (the most reliable long range predictor this winter re cold in the east) and the Day 10 on the 12Z Euro shows a real wound up system over it again (strongest all winter if memory serves) it'll be almost, and more likely, early April before things break imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It's probably going to be cooler than avg on the whole for a while still but the cold shot coming this week initially looked more extensive than it does now. The next one looks a bit more significant from here though. what happened to your facebook cover picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 what happened to your facebook cover picture? 372 hr GFS ftl, tho we might make up for it next day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS says 62 tomorrow. Add 8 degrees. This time of the year temps always rocket well above MOS. 500 dollars says we hit at least 71 tomorrow, Washington DC hits the middle 70s. 1)Laser sun angle 2)No snow on ground (except in Delaney Valley where there are still 2 inches of snow) 3)Spring has definitely arrived. Temperatures will skyrocket from here. Washington DC will score at least one high temp of 85 by end of March. In April, DC will score one high of 93. Moral of the story......Break out the spring wardrobe. the grills, the bbq and millions of kegs of ice cold beer. That last paragraph sounds pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Euro and GFS say winter isn't over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro and GFS say winter isn't over. Yeah both agree that another arctic air blast is coming around March 23. GEFS has almost unanimous support. Crazy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS is liking something big around 25th. Of course, at this range I think blinding pointing at a map to say where it would snow would be about the same. ECMWF is smart not to run that far into the future -- As for next year, strong El Nino's don't generally give us good snow. We want the El Nino cold without the En Nino dry, which is generally seen with a moderate to moderately strong El Nino but not with a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS is liking something big around 25th. Of course, at this range I think blinding pointing at a map to say where it would snow would be about the same. ECMWF is smart not to run that far into the future -- As for next year, strong El Nino's don't generally give us good snow. We want the El Nino cold without the En Nino dry, which is generally seen with a moderate to moderately strong El Nino but not with a strong El Nino. It's too early to know the strength of next year's El Nino and whether or not it will even happen (though I think some kind of El Nino is likely). I like our chances for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As for next year, my only input here is that we appear to be in a 3 to 4 year pattern of good winters since 1993. So you've got 93, 96, 00, 03, 06, 09, 13. It's been a long time since I did those "what number comes next" math problems but I'm pretty confident the next number is not 14. I'm talking KU, Miller A type winters. There is no science that I'm aware of to this pattern, but seems like the winter of 16 or 17 will be rockin. Until then, we get what we get and we dont get upset. Sent from Chestnut Ridge N. Baltimore County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As for next year, my only input here is that we appear to be in a 3 to 4 year pattern of good winters since 1993. So you've got 93, 96, 00, 03, 06, 09, 13. It's been a long time since I did those "what number comes next" math problems but I'm pretty confident the next number is not 14. I'm talking KU, Miller A type winters. There is no science that I'm aware of to this pattern, but seems like the winter of 16 or 17 will be rockin. Until then, we get what we get and we dont get upset. Sent from Chestnut Ridge N. Baltimore County ^that's the key sentence. There's no meteorological or scientific reason why we can't have two consecutive good winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS won't get rid of the EPO ridge. Every time it's gone, it comes back. Luckily we can still eek out warm days here. 12z run is a miss with the day9 event but that can still change. I'd rather have warmth and nothing to track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro has a coastal D9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro has a coastal D9 We should start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 We should start a thread Go ahead. At this point it's no longer long range but specific threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Go ahead. At this point it's no longer long range but specific threats Euro ens have the threat but too much spread to worry about for a while. Euro control shows snow though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Lol euro control has a 943 low over the ri/ma border at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Lol euro control has a 943 low over the ri/ma border at 240 Book it... its going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Lol euro control has a 943 low over the ri/ma border at 240 Taking the control's know bias that solution will likely verify as a 981 off of OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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