Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We need a superstorm or at least a superband at the darkest part of night to win from here out. The genie in the lamp says ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The GFS looks pretty crappy to me. Maybe I'm looking at an old run. The GFS is nothing spectacular, but it beats the soaking rain here/NE crush job that it was showing. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 id rather have a euro 980 low pass over us than the crap GFS is giving us Yeah, I think I agree at this point. Good thing the Euro is probably closer to right than the GFS.. except it's going to be east and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 hopefully the GGEM color maps give us more snow than the GGEM B and W maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah, I think I agree at this point. Good thing the Euro is probably closer to right than the GFS.. except it's going to be east and colder. 10-10 weenies agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 10-10 weenies agreeRecord frozen lakes will help it manufacture cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 What hour on the GFS are yall looking at? Maybe I need to clear my cache or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Record frozen lakes will help it manufacture cold air Wetbulbing ocean torque can only help too. 20:1 man. 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 What hour on the GFS are yall looking at? Maybe I need to clear my cache or something We're going old school tonight. 850 0C line ftmfw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HECS4DC14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Pour a little liquor out for the 21st Bday! No reason not to keep hope alive, right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Man guys. I was all in and ready to see snow maps with purple and pinks. I see gray... Better though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HECS4DC14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Bday vs Anniversary, because like try love once born historic storms never die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Good news is only 2 more nights where it's even slightly logical to stay up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Bad news: only two more nights until we all prove ourselves quite illogical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro looks like a mess. Track about the same but the system is a weak pos instead if the bomb it had. Prob no significant snow anywhere. Where the precip is heavy its rain. Trends tonight are disturbing. Seems moving away from a really amped system and this time with marginal temps in mid march a suppressed sheared system isn't going to get it done anywhere. Tonight's solutions would prob just be rain/mix non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The Euro and GFS models are so worthless past 2 or 3 days. Unbelievable that we can land a man on the moon( supposedly) , but cant create a decent forecast model. Next weeks storm is probably rain, but flipping a coin would be just as good as these computerized pieces of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Victory is coming. The storm will trend and we will all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GEM lead shift with Monday's event so it's no surprise it is doing the same with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The Euro and GFS models are so worthless past 2 or 3 days. Unbelievable that we can land a man on the moon( supposedly) , but cant create a decent forecast model. Next weeks storm is probably rain, but flipping a coin would be just as good as these computerized pieces of crap. You don't have realistic expectations if you expect perfect computer simulations of any system as complex as the atmosphere. Just because the models gave you fake snow and then took it away, doesn't mean they are worthless or "computerized pieces of crap". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 wow GFS really far north this run. Even southern PA is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The Euro and GFS models are so worthless past 2 or 3 days. Unbelievable that we can land a man on the moon( supposedly) , but cant create a decent forecast model. Next weeks storm is probably rain, but flipping a coin would be just as good as these computerized pieces of crap. The models are pretty good. There is a reason why forecasts at longer ranges aren't that good, chaos. Small differences in initial conditions can make a huge difference in forecasts. This article about Lorenz summarized chaos. You might gain some understanding of why models sometimes break your snow loving heart. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/us/17lorenz.html?_r=0 Lorenz's work is the basis for why meteorologist look at ensemble members to get a feel for possible errors in the models and for trying to get a feel for the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 And I think the idea of one last snow is over... I am out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Saw where JI and MItchnick are all excited that we might get an el nino next year. Based on this article and on the idea that convection near the dateline is good for us..... I think an El NIno Midoki type set up might be better for us than a straight old fashioned El Nino. I have no real stats to show it....might look into it this summer if I get motivated. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 And I think the idea of one last snow is over... I am out Hunting for a big event.... yeah out. Not likely to happen, and I have lost interest after last week. Was a good finale IMO, and still some snow on the ground this morning. That said, I would be surprised if we dont see chances for a sloppy couple inches here and there. We dont need a super storm to get snow in mid to late March. I am just not investing anymore time in tracking snow events. Spring is here. My mosquito dunkers and insecticide arrived yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'm out...see ya in the fall guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Just saw 10 day euro.....I'm back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Just saw 10 day euro.....I'm back inThis winter has been so great from a tracking standpoint as well, so I'm having a particularly hard time letting go this year. Check out the clipper on the 6z GFS day 9, lol.Since a '93 repeat is out of the cards, we can always start rooting for a Palm Sunday 1942 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Just saw 10 day euro.....I'm back in its rain !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 its rain !! Pretty sure that's not all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Pretty sure the 12z gfs is all rain for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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