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March Medium-Long Range Discotheque


stormtracker

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id rather have a euro 980 low pass over us than the crap GFS is giving us

Yeah, I think I agree at this point. Good thing the Euro is probably closer to right than the GFS.. except it's going to be east and colder.

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Euro looks like a mess. Track about the same but the system is a weak pos instead if the bomb it had. Prob no significant snow anywhere. Where the precip is heavy its rain. Trends tonight are disturbing. Seems moving away from a really amped system and this time with marginal temps in mid march a suppressed sheared system isn't going to get it done anywhere. Tonight's solutions would prob just be rain/mix non event

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The Euro and GFS models are so worthless past 2 or 3 days. Unbelievable that we can land a man on the moon( supposedly) , but cant create a decent forecast model. Next weeks storm is probably rain, but flipping a coin would be just as good as these computerized pieces of crap.

 

You don't have realistic expectations if you expect perfect computer simulations of any system as complex as the atmosphere. Just because the models gave you fake snow and then took it away, doesn't mean they are worthless or "computerized pieces of crap".

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The Euro and GFS models are so worthless past 2 or 3 days. Unbelievable that we can land a man on the moon( supposedly) , but cant create a decent forecast model. Next weeks storm is probably rain, but flipping a coin would be just as good as these computerized pieces of crap.

The models are pretty good.  There is a reason why forecasts at longer ranges aren't that good, chaos.   Small differences in initial conditions can make a huge difference in forecasts.  This article about Lorenz summarized chaos.  You might gain some understanding of why models sometimes break your snow  loving heart. 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/us/17lorenz.html?_r=0

 

Lorenz's work is the basis for why meteorologist look at ensemble members to get a feel for possible errors in the models and for trying to get a feel for the most likely solution.

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Saw where JI and MItchnick are all excited that we might get an el nino next year.   Based on this article and on the idea that convection near the dateline is good for us..... I think an El NIno Midoki type set up might be better for us than a straight old fashioned El Nino.  I have no real stats to show it....might look into it this summer if I get motivated. 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

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And I think the idea of one last snow is over... I am out

Hunting for a big event.... yeah out. Not likely to happen, and I have lost interest after last week. Was a good finale IMO, and still some snow on the ground this morning. That said, I would be surprised if we dont see chances for a sloppy couple inches here and there. We dont need a super storm to get snow in mid to late March. I am just not investing anymore time in tracking snow events. Spring is here. My mosquito dunkers and insecticide arrived yesterday.

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Just saw 10 day euro.....I'm back in

This winter has been so great from a tracking standpoint as well, so I'm having a particularly hard time letting go this year. Check out the clipper on the 6z GFS day 9, lol.

Since a '93 repeat is out of the cards, we can always start rooting for a Palm Sunday 1942 repeat. ;)

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