Scuddz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I can't wait for the NAM to come in and Ollie Williams the S**t out of this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't understand the attacks on Highzenburg. I enjoy reading his posts. He unabashedly is searching for the big one, and I like that, frankly. Because, this time of year, it better be huge to get accumulating snow to my locale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From a moderating standpoint (and from my own POV), there's a difference between banter/IMBY questions/analysis of the CRAS and what Highzenburg and some others are doing. I haven't called any one person out, but the weenies are out of control. who you or I consider to be weenies may be different, but regardless... there is a lot of weening out going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't understand the attacks on Highzenburg. I enjoy reading his posts. He unabashedly is searching for the big one, and I like that, frankly. Because, this time of year, it better be huge to get accumulating snow to my locale. He's fine. He's been around for forever and knows what to look for. People just need someone to pick on and because he's been enthusiastic about the threat, they chose him. Btw, did you know it was March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I don't understand the attacks on Highzenburg. I enjoy reading his posts. He unabashedly is searching for the big one, and I like that, frankly. Because, this time of year, it better be huge to get accumulating snow to my locale. it's not particularly his analysis that's the problem (as poor as it can be from time to time) -- it just how it translate to the overall progression of the conversation when he's driving the narrative -- of course you like reading his posts, who wouldn't, dude loves the silver lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 He's fine. He's been around for forever and knows what to look for. People just need someone to pick on and because he's been enthusiastic about the threat, they chose him. Btw, did you know it was March? I think you are missing the overall point... chris said it perfectly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 it's not particularly his analysis that's the problem (as poor as it can be from time to time) -- it just how it translate to the overall progression of the conversation when he's driving the narrative -- of course you like reading his posts, who wouldn't, dude loves the silver lining It's mid-March. It better be the most anomolous cold wettest system possible to get accumulating snow at my house in Balt City. I don't mind that somone is looking for that. I know what a bust the two systems were in March for my locale last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think you are missing the overall point... chris said it perfectly above.From what I read, i think you mean highzenberg isn't really the big problem here. Its the other weenies who crap on a threat constantly because its March or expect a foot of snow because verbatim thats what the GGEM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's mid-March. It better be the most anomolous cold wettest system possible to get accumulating snow at my house in Balt City. I don't mind that somone is looking for that. I know what a bust the two systems were in March for my locale last year. i just think most feel the quality of the analysis/conversation shouldn't degrade because it's mid-March -- most of the pragmatic people understand that the extra scrutiny is needed and is justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 From what I read, i think you mean highzenberg isn't really the big problem here. Its the other weenies who crap on a threat constantly because its March or expect a foot of snow because verbatim thats what the GGEM shows. more or less, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 i just think most feel the quality of the analysis/conversation shouldn't degrade because it's mid-March -- most of the pragmatic people understand that the extra scrutiny is needed and is justified. I get that, but I sure don't see Highzenburg being part of a degrading. The models are zeroing in now on the kind of marginal thing that will probably be hard to accumulate. But it was nice to be on the lookout for something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The arguments are just dumb. No one is saying it can't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 i just think most feel the quality of the analysis/conversation shouldn't degrade because it's mid-March -- most of the pragmatic people understand that the extra scrutiny is needed and is justified. It's been a long lead track with a much smaller than normal interested group. Any regular lurkers know how to weed. I don't think it's been that bad with the regular posters that know a thing or two. I think it's been pretty good to be honest. We had multiple solutions showing 1'+ the last 5 days or so but nobody bought into it. At least not from what I saw. There was potential for a phased monster but the low probability was outlined constantly. Hberg is a self proclaimed low prob big storm chaser. His analysis is always biased that way but he's not a fabricator or wishcaster imo. I'm a self proclaimed guarded optimist and my posts are always biased that way. I do think however that now that we are inside of 72 that the disco thread should be crap/banter/nonsense free going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 i just think most feel the quality of the analysis/conversation shouldn't degrade because it's mid-March -- most of the pragmatic people understand that the extra scrutiny is needed and is justified.The quality degrades most because of the people who like snow but don't give a crap about science or forecasting which is a lot of people who like snow. OMG so pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's been a long lead track with a much smaller than normal interested group. Any regular lurkers know how to weed. I don't think it's been that bad with the regular posters that know a thing or two. I think it's been pretty good to be honest. We had multiple solutions showing 1'+ the last 5 days or so but nobody bought into it. At least not from what I saw. There was potential for a phased monster but the low probability was outlined constantly. Hberg is a self proclaimed low prob big storm chaser. His analysis is always biased that way but he's not a fabricator or wishcaster imo. I'm a self proclaimed guarded optimist and my posts are always biased that way. I do think however that now that we are inside of 72 that the disco thread should be crap/banter/nonsense free going forward. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The arguments are just dumb. No one is saying it can't snow. Exactly. Even I'm starting to get irked when your posts have backlash. It's pretty dumb. Everyone's backyard is different with how it plays out and we're all back yard expectation setters. In this setup (much like the dec storms) the differences of location are magnified due to numerous reasons backed by actual science/climo etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's been a long lead track with a much smaller than normal interested group. Any regular lurkers know how to weed. I don't think it's been that bad with the regular posters that know a thing or two. I think it's been pretty good to be honest. We had multiple solutions showing 1'+ the last 5 days or so but nobody bought into it. At least not from what I saw. There was potential for a phased monster but the low probability was outlined constantly. Hberg is a self proclaimed low prob big storm chaser. His analysis is always biased that way but he's not a fabricator or wishcaster imo. I'm a self proclaimed guarded optimist and my posts are always biased that way. I do think however that now that we are inside of 72 that the disco thread should be crap/banter/nonsense free going forward. yeah i agree -- and believe me, I appreciate your posts a great deal -- it'd be nice if others took a lesson from someone like yourself who sits down pours over the data and makes value-added assessments -- but probably too much to ask...which is fine, i'm sure my expectations for the narrative may be unreasonable at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yeah i agree -- and believe me, I appreciate your posts a great deal -- it'd be nice if others took a lesson from someone like yourself who sits down pours over the data and makes value-added assessments -- but probably too much to ask...which is fine, i'm sure my expectations for the narrative may be unreasonable at times I think there is a lot of self control needed by some people. Not every thought that pops into ones head needs to be posted. and if one needs to do that, thats why we have a banter thread. Bob is good people, is great at analysis, etc. But I don't expect everyone to be that way. I do hope that some people who don't know nearly as much as Bob, Matt, Ian, etc. would just be quiet and let others do the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Exactly. Even I'm starting to get irked when your posts have backlash. It's pretty dumb. Everyone's backyard is different with how it plays out and we're all back yard expectation setters. In this setup (much like the dec storms) the differences of location are magnified due to numerous reasons backed by actual science/climo etc.Snow maps and fancy algorithms have been a net negative this winter. People don't seem to care of its 40 degrees and 5pm if the ptype says snow. Then you have all these strawmen people are rebuking.. I know people think it's a cop out to say too don't know the story but not sure why that's so frowned upon. Instead many just focus on the best news and ignore any downsides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Snow maps and fancy algorithms have been a net negative this winter. People don't seem to care of its 40 degrees and 5pm if the ptype says snow. Then you have all these strawmen people are rebuking.. I know people think it's a cop out to say too don't know the story but not sure why that's so frowned upon. Instead many just focus on the best news and ignore any downsides. what! you're saying overtly generous wxbell maps have hurt the overall analysis here -- but seriously, maue can make some great maps but its hard to get beyond someone who knows issues exist esp. with snow maps and doesn't use his vast background to come up with a better way to communicate the model data -- but that's "free-market meteorology", can't argue with their traffic/sales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Snow maps and fancy algorithms have been a net negative this winter. People don't seem to care of its 40 degrees and 5pm if the ptype says snow. Then you have all these strawmen people are rebuking.. I know people think it's a cop out to say too don't know the story but not sure why that's so frowned upon. Instead many just focus on the best news and ignore any downsides. Now that I fully understand the snow maps and know their weaknesses, I find them to be a great tool. They are excellent for determining model qpf output during the window. It's not that hard to go a step further and think through mid level and surface stuff. I think that's the missing link with prolific snow map posters. Surface and 850 panels are awful easy to look at and overlay. And then simple basic knowledge stuff like rates/ratios/time of day etc are quite easy to include into the mental calc. Not sure why such a gap with some folks who have been here long enough to know better. Last march and this dec taught me some great lessons in interpretation of what might actually happen vs pretty maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The quality degrades most because of the people who like snow but don't give a crap about science or forecasting which is a lot of people who like snow. OMG so pretty. Snow is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think there is a lot of self control needed by some people. Not every thought that pops into ones head needs to be posted. and if one needs to do that, thats why we have a banter thread. Bob is good people, is great at analysis, etc. But I don't expect everyone to be that way. I do hope that some people who don't know nearly as much as Bob, Matt, Ian, etc. would just be quiet and let others do the analysis. I forgot to get milk and toilet paper at the store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yeah i agree -- and believe me, I appreciate your posts a great deal -- it'd be nice if others took a lesson from someone like yourself who sits down pours over the data and makes value-added assessments -- but probably too much to ask...which is fine, i'm sure my expectations for the narrative may be unreasonable at times Appreciate the compliment. There is a core group here that does a really good job overall. I really enjoy input from that group quite a bit. I think as far as sub forums go, we are pretty strong in filtering the mud and making the water clear enough to see through. My peeve lately is the driveby interlopers regurgitating crap from another region and the op doesn't even analyze anything in the first place. Those posts are like rotten apple to squashed orange comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 lol Ok...how about this..and I'm dead serious....I'm going to start being a dicktator[sic] in that thread and crackdown so harshly that people will hate us. I'm serious. I've thought about it. I'm talking one strike and your out type stuff. If you have two posts disappear from the thread, I'm not simply going to 5 post you, you're gone for the duration of the storm. Yall want that? You all really want that? Because WE can make it happen. My personal feelings: There is a middle ground....it's nowhere near as bad as some of you are saying. It ain't great either. But clearly our leniency isn't getting the job done. Some people are awful and will never learn (and those are the ones that need targeted strikes) and then people just get giddy and post dumb/banter stuff.....it's ok sometimes....as long as there isn't some extended banter or over the top offensive stuff. There HAS to be a happy medium somewhere....this place is built on so called terrible "weenies".....most of us here are weenies and some of us act like our sh*t don't stink. We can balance between some fun and some serious pro discussion. WE have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Appreciate the compliment. There is a core group here that does a really good job overall. I really enjoy input from that group quite a bit. I think as far as sub forums go, we are pretty strong in filtering the mud and making the water clear enough to see through. My peeve lately is the driveby interlopers regurgitating crap from another region and the op doesn't even analyze anything in the first place. Those posts are like rotten apple to squashed orange comparisons. exactly and honestly that's what got me more involved here (once I moved here of course) is that on some days I'm busy and reading 3 to 4 pages of good analysis here gave me a good overview that was easier than pouring over the data myself -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 lol Ok...how about this..and I'm dead serious....I'm going to start being a dicktator[sic] in that thread and crackdown so harshly that people will hate us. I'm serious. I've thought about it. I'm talking one strike and your out type stuff. If you have two posts disappear from the thread, I'm not simply going to 5 post you, you're gone for the duration of the storm. Yall want that? You all really want that? Because I can make it happen. My personal feelings: There is a middle ground....it's nowhere near as bad as some of you are saying. It ain't great either. But clearly our leniency isn't getting the job done. Some people are awful and will never learn (and those are the ones that need targeted strikes) and then people just get giddy and post dumb/banter stuff.....it's ok sometimes....as long as there isn't some extended banter or over the top offensive stuff. There HAS to be a happy medium somewhere....this place is built on so called terrible "weenies".....most of us here are weenies and some of us act like our sh*t don't stink. We can balance between some fun and some serious pro discussion. WE have to. i fully support 100% crack down, 1 strike, see ya, rule. But thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This will ruffle some feathers, but I also get the feeling that some of the calls to clean up and focus the discussion on just the facts is because there are people here who need this information to go make their own forecasts in other venues. I have noticed that those who yell the loudest about needing to police the forums (especially the red-taggers doing it) rarely actually contribute their own thoughts and instead just snipe and try to guide the discussion elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's been a long lead track with a much smaller than normal interested group. Any regular lurkers know how to weed. I don't think it's been that bad with the regular posters that know a thing or two. I think it's been pretty good to be honest. We had multiple solutions showing 1'+ the last 5 days or so but nobody bought into it. At least not from what I saw. There was potential for a phased monster but the low probability was outlined constantly. Hberg is a self proclaimed low prob big storm chaser. His analysis is always biased that way but he's not a fabricator or wishcaster imo. I'm a self proclaimed guarded optimist and my posts are always biased that way. I do think however that now that we are inside of 72 that the disco thread should be crap/banter/nonsense free going forward. I agree with this whole post. It hasn't been that bad - or even particularly busy - given the length if time we've had modeled snow, which I think is a lot to with the fact that we're in spring and people are generally ambivalent about snow after a pretty good season. I could take it or leave it, to be honest. I just don't want a day ruined by cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I still don't get why we have to have this existential debate about post quality every time there's a snow threat. Too much weenieing out/banter in the storm thread...people complain. All banter/weenieing out posts removed from the storm thread...people complain. I don't think much is going to change next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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