mdsnowlover Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I would argue that predicting the weather is more challenging than landing a man on the moon... At least with moon you kinda know most of the variables going in. With modeling they are probably only sampling like less than 1% of the atmosphere.. and that being said there is still generalized chaos. isnt it amazing the modeling needed to get an object to the moon , land it and return can be written so quickly, yet a model to sample the atmosphere takes so much longer to do and isnt quite as accurrate, Understandble in one very big way, atmosphere cant be seen only felt , moon is a very big, object in the sky and relatively fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'm out...see ya in the fall guys Yup, gonna take the plow off the truck today and maybe de winterize the rv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 isnt it amazing the modeling needed to get an object to the moon , land it and return can be written so quickly, yet a model to sample the atmosphere takes so much longer to do and isnt quite as accurrate, Understandble in one very big way, atmosphere cant be seen only felt , moon is a very big, object in the sky and relatively fixed. I invite you to play Kerbal Space Program, which simulates sending a vessel to the moon using real physics. Quite fun, and quite instructive. And simple enough you can do it without needing any modeling or simulation. All you need to work with is kepler's laws of motion. For atmospheric physics, you are working with complex fluid dynamics and thermal dynamics equations, none of which apply to moving a space craft between orbital distances or landing it on one of those celestrial bodies. In fact, the hardest part of landing on the moon is getting a craft that can make it through the atmosphere, not moving it in space. In space it is simply about timing, reaching the target at the right time, because there is is only gravity to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Models have been improving every year. I think they are pretty incredible tools. Behind the panels are mind boggling amounts of numeric calculations. Nothing short of amazing what the entire envelope of guidance available provides us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Nice day to get the 6 layers of salt off the cars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamerakitten Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I've never had them before. Can't take one until late but I'm pretty sure flexeril should def not ever be OTC. They're kinda fun. Lol They made me sick as a dog but did nothing to alleviate the sciatica. I can tolerate a half if a low dosage Tramadol for the pain. I'm a total wuss when it comes to pain meds. When is your MRI?? If they decide on PT I can highly recommend doing some of it in a warm water pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Saturday March 8 2014 I finally got out for the 1st time since that pesky tooth got extracted. Because I worked out today - I got to see everything. Todays high was 66. Remember this always about northern Virginia/Washington DC: Whatever the forecasted high is - ALWAYS add on 6 to 8 degrees this time of year. The high temperature is ALWAYS well above MOS. It is what it is. It never ever fails. We were forecast to hit 57. Sure enough we hit 66. This is a professional spring town. No one does spring like we do, nowhere in the world at large. Areal snow coverage is down to one percent. I had an inch of snow in my north yard at 3pm. 3pm is my criterion for any given day. The Glendale Slope north facing lawns all had an inch of snow close to the house. The Leninskaya Slope had swaths of one inch deep snow. I also walked down into Delaney Valley for the first time since Tuesday afternoon. The area of snow has shrunk, but there is still an inch of snow, with a good deal of standing water in the low places down there. The west northwest slope has snow on it, and the ground there is STILL frozen solid. The sun just can't get to that slope. As I type this at 454am, snow is still melting on the ground. It seems that spring has fully sprung, even at night. Today's snow remnant means that we have seen 49 days of snow cover this season. But there will likely be no 50th day. It is just too damn mild, even at night. Spring is becoming a tremendous force that nothing on earth can stop. It will crash down upon us, spreading warmth and grill BBQs all across the tropical Mid Atlantic into most of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 They made me sick as a dog but did nothing to alleviate the sciatica. I can tolerate a half if a low dosage Tramadol for the pain. I'm a total wuss when it comes to pain meds. When is your MRI?? If they decide on PT I can highly recommend doing some of it in a warm water pool. MRI tues am. Prob won't know results for a few days afterwards. I've been working out with no probs. Just light reps. I played 3 rounds of disc golf yesterday and felt awesome until the drive home. Sitting seems to be the culprit. The weirdest thing is my back isn't bothering me at all and that's been an issue for decades. It's burning in my leg only. So weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Spending the rest of my afternoon with the kiddo at a birthday party, maybe booze will be served Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Sprayed insecticide on the south side of my house yesterday. The wasps feel that strong sun. Been seeing them for a couple weeks, even on days when its cold(they freeze at night tho). So I am trying this new "kill all bugs" stuff, primarily to prevent the carpenter bees from drilling in a few weeks. So yeah, lots of convulsing and dead wasps on my deck today. Stink bugs too. Muahahaha. Love this stuff, and the residual is supposed to last for up to 3 months outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Killing beneficial insects sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I think we're pretty much done. We don't usually keep the magic going forever.. these storms are all north trenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Killing beneficial insects sucks. Lol they only die if they get on my house. Not really sure what benefit stink bugs offer. Wasps and carpenter bees, well they can nest somewhere else. Plenty of them to go around, and lots of trees etc to nest in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I think we're pretty much done. We don't usually keep the magic going forever.. these storms are all north trenders. I agree. Mentioned it yesterday- the Monday event was our finale. And it was pretty amazing considering the anomalous cold, even if the snow was less than forecast. I do think we will see one or two minor pasty events that will melt in a blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I think we're pretty much done. We don't usually keep the magic going forever.. these storms are all north trenders. I don't think we're totally done. Still an active and cool pattern over the next 2 weeks it appears. I would put money on a messy event or a NW event vs no snow for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 There are 40-50 robins that have been crushing the berries on my front yard holly tree the last two days. It's like a feeding frenzy - they're absolutely crazed. It's pretty awesome, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 There are 40-50 robins that have been crushing the berries on my front yard holly tree the last two days. It's like a feeding frenzy - they're absolutely crazed. It's pretty awesome, actually. I've seen that. Lots of natural holly trees growing in the woods here, and no shortage of birds. Eastern shore is great area for bird watching. Lots of snow geese hanging here for the winter. Farmers don't like em too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I've seen that. Lots of natural holly trees growing in the woods here, and no shortage of birds. Eastern shore is great area for bird watching. Lots of snow geese hanging here for the winter. Farmers don't like em too much. I've liked birds since I was a kid. My grandfather was a bird caller, which I thought was cool as hell. I grew up in South Jersey, which is part of a pretty big migration flyway, so we always had a lot of cool birds to look out for. We had a flock of cedar waxwings strip the berries from the holly tree on their way south in the fall a few years ago, but I haven't seen them since. It's is the second time I've seen the robins do this in the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Ummm. I think he was kidding.... There is no way he was being serious... Just like he was "kidding" when he wished for 5" of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't think we're totally done. Still an active and cool pattern over the next 2 weeks it appears. I would put money on a messy event or a NW event vs no snow for the rest of the month. Yeah maybe. We need good timing.. most likely a nighttime event.. from here out. The cool stretch up ahead doesn't look particularly cool outside a day or two. I guess it reloads again after but we'll see how that looks when we close in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Big difference between early and mid March around here. Getting a bonafide Arctic air mass the first few days of March is doable, as we just experienced. Moving ahead towards St Patty's day, its much tougher. So any threat from mid month on is going to have marginal temperature and time of day issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Since I'm still in Miami, and by the looks of the 18z GFS, you should still keep an eye on this week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Since I'm still in Miami, and by the looks of the 18z GFS, you should still keep an eye on this week's storm. Nothing really to see. Its a mild rain storm with maybe a few mangled flakes at the end. Looks like a nice snow event for parts of Ohio, N PA, and NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Beautiful weekend. I can't tell if the storm thread is serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Sunday March 9 2014 It was a miracle. Somehow the beautiful snow survived the 66 degrees yesterday then the tropical mid 40s overnight. Today the temperature mercifully stayed in the mid 40s. The snow on my north lawn is no more. There was a tiny bit of snow on the north facing lawns of the Glendale Slope. Leninskaya is a desert, no snow at all. That laser sun did its work as a massive spring weather tsunami crashed over the tropical fall line, prompting horrified gutteral screams from many a suffering snow enthusiast as snow and winter dreams were mercilessly crushed forever, never to be seen again. But the Delaney Valley is an oasis in a world of searing torrid spring sun hell. March will average 20 degrees above normal, prompting cries of out of control global warming. Those cries would be on target. This upcoming summer will break dozens of temperature records this upcoming high sun season on the East Coast. Somehow, some way, the precious snow was preserved for another day deep in the sacred recesses of the famed Delaney Valley. That beautiful west northwest slope which is oblique to the dreaded sun angle protected the snow. A miraculous stand of evergreens shielded the snow remnant from that ravaging, savaging late spring sun which has devastated all other areal snowpack throughout the beleaguered mid atlantic. Famed ski resorts all over the mid atlantic cried out in sheer agony as the searing sun burned away all of the snow and even raised the soil temperatures over 10 degrees in a single week. I took up a sacred pilgrimage this afternoon through the famed Delaney Valley, gratefully savoring the fifty foot long swath of snow on the west northwest slope. There, under the sheltering evergreens, lay the only remaining snow in the entire Central and Southern mid atlantic region. I longed to cool my tormented overheated body in the cool, refreshing pool of cool water in the low lying parts of Delaney Valley. There was an area of white snow in the midst of the cool waters. Birds came to drink and to cool off from this relentless March heatwave that has devastated numerous states of their precious snow. The ground on this hallowed slope is wet but very frozen as it valiantly defies the vicious hot sun above. The precious snow is one to two inches deep. Parts of the snow swath are ice one inch deep. I nearly slipped and would have suffered a hard jarring pratfall had I not caught hold of a bench nearby. Even the air itself is a good ten degrees cooler than that a few hundred feet away. This sweet hidden slope in Delaney Valley is my happy place to get away from the savage spring sun and the hard realities of no snow at all only a few dozen yards away. I kicked back on the cool bench and breathed deep the cool air of Delaney Valley and closed my weary eyes and remembered a week ago to beautiful vistas of white powder snow that I eagerly frolicked in. All winter I had reveled in all the snow my heart could wish for. I had run with deep supreme joy, raising up great plumes of powder as I ran for sheer delight in the snowy valley. I'll be back here each day to watch over the remaining snow and remember all the great snow memories of a winter that I wish with all my heart would never end. This snow deserves to be remembered. Therefore I will increment my days of snow cover once more, to 50 days. I wish I could spend the next 6 months in Antarctica. I resent spring, and hate summer. I want snow, and 32 degree lakes, and strong winds and torrential snow and drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm faced with a very difficult decision. Should I continue my wxbell subscription through spring and summer? Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm faced with a very difficult decision. Should I continue my wxbell subscription through spring and summer? Hmmm.... Do what I did... I bought it for a couple months, and then cancelled. But the thing is, I still have it for some reason. I can still log-in and everything. Or you could keep resetting the trial for eternity. They let you use the same credit card, so you never have to pay. Problem solved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm faced with a very difficult decision. Should I continue my wxbell subscription through spring and summer? Hmmm.... Ian will keep us all up to date on severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Ian will keep us all up to date on severe weather. Just get out the meh stamp for every event except one or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'd love for the SE ridge to return right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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