nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Being a SEC (football) guy, I hate all things ACC and especially clemson lol. I have to admit though, as great as the conference was in basketball before it is a frickin superconference now. I love how everyone fights for their lives at the tail end of the season. There is nothing like it. One of my great regrets from college was not going to the Big East Tournament. Hated to see the conference broken up. I thought the ACC would be stacked this year given the new additions, but the conference underperformed thus far I think. Just like in prior years, there's a few really good teams at the top but then mediocre throughout the conference. When the Big East expanded to 16 teams, it was by far the conference with the most depth in basketball. I went to the tourney in 07 and 08. I wish I went in 09 to see that EPIC cuse/uconn game in person. Probably the best college basketball game ever! And on being a SEC football guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Don't want to clog up the model thread so I'll reply here: I dunno it had some pretty foolish solutions the past few days. I've yet to see how it's so super amazing now but I guess I don't watch models as much as some people. Yeah, but you could probably argue even the Euro has done that this winter. I remember the 00z Euro from 2 nights before the KU had that crazy 2"+ QPF that buried us. I'd much rather have Euro and RGEM/GGEM than GFS and NAM on our side, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Don't want to clog up the model thread so I'll reply here: Yeah, but you could probably argue even the Euro has done that this winter. I remember the 00z Euro from 2 nights before the KU had that crazy 2"+ QPF that buried us. I'd much rather have Euro and RGEM/GGEM than GFS and NAM on our side, though. People gravitate towards whatever shows the best hit.. it's a losing battle to hope for otherwise at this point. Look again at people focusing on the 84 hour NAM for their next needle to the arm. Rationalizations are always pretty thin and based on foggy memories. The GFS has had its day here and there this winter but has had a lot of problems as we've moved more into a southern stream dominant pattern. But, again, if people have watched the models all winter and beyond they should probably be able to figure out how to work with that. Plus who knows maybe it's closer to right.. I am not smart enough to say otherwise without a doubt. Despite all the nice runs there's still plenty of reason to keep expectations in check given multiple reasons. We should do fine around here at least.. And, go UConn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 who the **** cares. it's not there on the euro and most likely to be some light stuff it happens anyway. the last thing anyone should be interested in is what the nam shows at 84 hours right now. Best post I have read thus far tonight. People should be happy with 4-8" in mid March. I guess many just want DC to have more snowfall than Philly. I feel their pain but it's irrelevant at this point. Very sharp gradient this winter but everyone still scored decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 People gravitate towards whatever shows the best hit.. it's a losing battle to hope for otherwise at this point. Look again at people focusing on the 84 hour NAM for their next needle to the arm. Rationalizations are always pretty thin and based on foggy memories. The GFS has had its day here and there this winter but has had a lot of problems as we've moved more into a southern stream dominant pattern. But, again, if people have watched the models all winter and beyond they should probably be able to figure out how to work with that. Plus who knows maybe it's closer to right.. I am not smart enough to say otherwise without a doubt. Despite all the nice runs there's still plenty of reason to keep expectations in check given multiple reasons. We should do fine around here at least.. And, go UConn. Yeah, good points. If Euro supports the NAM and GGEM, I'd have to think we do better than what I'm expecting. But its always a safe bet to hedge expectations in DC in mid-March. We're pretty much in Euro's wheelhouse with the 0z run and Saturday's 12z run so I hope the Euro stays the same from today's 12z or improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Best post I have read thus far tonight. People should be happy with 4-8" in mid March. I guess many just want DC to have more snowfall than Philly. I feel their pain but it's irrelevant at this point. Very sharp gradient this winter but everyone still scored decently.I'm addicted myself or I'd have managed to stay away longer than 12 hours, but some people need a smack upside the head here lol. If we score what is coming into focus it's a giant win on a great winter. The second low idea is fairly unlikely to be a big deal.. Unless we truly are snow blessed or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah, good points. If Euro supports the NAM and GGEM, I'd have to think we do better than what I'm expecting. But its always a safe bet to hedge expectations in DC in mid-March. We're pretty much in Euro's wheelhouse with the 0z run and Saturday's 12z run so I hope the Euro stays the same from today's 12z or improves. I used to mock people who hugged the euro so heavily but it crushes every southern stream event pretty much and all events within a certain range. If nothing else it's a time saver to mostly focus on it. It was still a little blotchy earlier so it might fill in more. I'm certainly more a believer now than a few days ago but not sure I can get behind a historic storm like the nam and GGEM show just yet. Even then it might be luck. We focus on run to run qpf too much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I used to mock people who hugged the euro so heavily but it crushes every southern stream event pretty much and all events within a certain range. If nothing else it's a time saver to mostly focus on it. It was still a little blotchy earlier so it might fill in more. I'm certainly more a believer now than a few days ago but not sure I can get behind a historic storm like the nam and GGEM show just yet. Even then it might be luck. We focus on run to run qpf too much here. Yes, definitely me included. I'm a bit of a QPF junkie and lean too much on that from run to run. For me, I think its just easy to focus on that since its straight liquid output...no dealing with ratios, precip issues, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I have to slap myself whenever I see some big run and get too excited...take a step back and run through the analysis without blindly looking at the pretty colors on a snow map. We'll be fine, but let's check expectations a bit until the Euro runs . Anything we get is gravy anyway so I am just fine drinking, watching basketball and this forum casually, and enjoying my first free weekend in a very long time. and yes yes go UConn (please don't lose by 30 to Louisville again ) I'd be scared to play Louisville right now...they're playing like they played in the NCAA tourney last year. With Villanova and Kansas both losing, Louisville could be a #1 seed, though if Duke wins the ACC tournament, they could be a #1 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 We have a better shot at four feet of snow Monday than Maryland does of making the NCAA tournament. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well then.. Anyway, now come my least favorite time of year. The 6 weeks between winter and spring. Boring, uneventful weather. Hopefully storm season is better then last year. All I heard last year was crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 36 hours from event start and still no real consensus re Monday for DC. LWX is waiting for more clarification. Hopefully we all may have more of a clue by 00Z so that people can decide when to frantically shop (or not) on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 06z nam gives me nada, 06z GFS gives me .53. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 At least today will be a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 06z nam gives me nada, 06z GFS gives me .53. Good stuff Don't give up hope. Just wish hard and snow will come to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Don't give up hope. Just wish hard and snow will come to you. I'm rooting for the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm rooting for the nam Just done with it-- I mean 67 inches?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 I can always tell when things are sliding away, someone posts crap from foots forecast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Can someone please post the line graph that shows the recent model accuracy? Im in an argument and need to prove a point and ive scrolled and searched and cant remember what threat I saw it posted in recently. Guess they are also called model verification charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Louisville is slaughtering people right now. I am terrified. But I do like that UConn has hot hands right now and the defense tonight was relentless. What is up with Kansas? Is it just me or does Bill Self does less with more more than any other coach in America. Ridiculous. I hope Maryland makes the tourney. Idk why, but I have always kind of liked them on the side. Yeah, definitely a let down for Jayhawk nation in the Big 12 tourney (and the regular season for that matter). I think they were ranked #5 preseason. Though nothing is more of a let down thus far than Kentucky (which I love since I'm not a fan of Calipari at all). Though if they get hot at the right time and their team of great freshmen know how to play together, they might do well in the tourney. The problem I have with Kentucky, is that year after year, they stack their team with 5 All-American freshmen, with no veteran experience, and no chemistry playing together since they're all new....I think thats probably their biggest problem. UMD needed to win the ACC tournament to get in. Maybe their program will improve in the Big 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Doug K/NBC changing their forecast again. 4-6" last night for DC...now 2-4". He probably should have waited to put out a forecast map until tonight anyways, given the uncertainty with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Just done with it-- I mean 67 inches?? LOL. I think mapgirl is a classic example of the old saying 'be careful what you wish for"...... Anyway, hope that you manage to get those few inches needed to get above climo Huff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I see the usual Debbie's are ruining the storm thread. 3/3 only sucked if you had unreal expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I enjoyed 3/3. I'd take 4" of snow with this one and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 I see the usual Debbie's are ruining the storm thread. 3/3 only sucked if you had unreal expectations.It sucked hard if you wanted warning criteria snow. Good on all those south who got it, but it sucked up here in Baltimore.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Considering I average like 2" in March and many have no snow it was solid. My bar for success on this one is like 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Considering I average like 2" in March and many have no snow it was solid. My bar for success here is like 0.5". I'd be pretty happy with a 1-3" snowfall on St. Patty's Day. I would however love my office to close so I can work from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I enjoyed 3/3. I'd take 4" of snow with this one and run with it. Yes, me too. I thought that storm was great. Last band was short lived but sick to watch. It's funny that the models have been moving around every suite but my personal expectations of a 2-4/3-6 event is still holding firm. For now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Just done with it-- I mean 67 inches?? I've got gardening to do, a toddler who needs to get the hell outside and run around and yes I'm just a bit tired of snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Everyone who likes that storm got last banded. A bunch of us got ****all nothing from that last band and had dried out to nothing by 9:00. Super crappy up here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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