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March '14 Obs and General Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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I-83 BLIZZARD

I-83 BLIZZARD

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Happy January 86th!  18.3 here this morning.  Hard to believe that 86 days out from the first of January we are still hitting the teens this week.  I can honestly say that this by far is the most brutal winter I have ever experienced.   Cold and persistent snow for months has been relentless. I love cold and snow in the winter and this has been a good one, but even I am getting worn down especially since it is Spring and it is a cold morning even by January standards in these parts. 

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das

das

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Hi of 29.8F and a low of 23.3F yesterday (3/26) and a low 18.8F this morning (3/27) here in Clarksburg. Quite impressive for late March.

Edited to add: in the last 84 hours, Clarksburg has been above freezing for exactly 1 hourly ob when the high was reached at 32.8F on Monday.

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mattskiva

mattskiva

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Hi of 29.8F and a low of 23.3F yesterday (3/26) and a low 18.8F this morning (3/27) here in Clarksburg. Quite impressive for late March.

Edited to add: in the last 84 hours, Clarksburg has been above freezing for exactly 1 hourly ob when the high was reached at 32.8F on Monday.

We got down to a low of 16.3f here this AM after a high of 38.7f and low of 22f yesterday.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Yeah, I'm so used to LR cold backing off on models but this winter/early spring, its been the complete opposite.  LR warmth keeps backing off.

I think the most interesting part is it started over a year ago. Last Feb was a marked change in the general NH long wave pattern. It was a "different" year almost everywhere in the NH. I'm interested to see what summer brings. Last summer had plenty of breaks from the typical triple H days and we never really had an extended hot spell. The temps on the means are skewed by really warm lows. We had quite a few lows in the upper 70's and low 80's. 
 
Here's some plots:
 
Feb-May 2013
 
post-2035-0-51833400-1395929463_thumb.jp
 
you can see the persistent cold pattern from the upper MW through the SE. 
 
 
JJA 2013
 
post-2035-0-46731300-1395929527_thumb.jp
 
We were pretty much normal after multiple years of nuclear heat. This composite of 2011-12 combined is stark with how warm we were and how different last summer was even if it was only "normal". Pretty different look at high latitudes as well. The bounce year in arctic sea ice minimum is another clue that something changed. Hard to say what happens this year up there but I'm interested. 
 
 
post-2035-0-99917200-1395929872_thumb.jp
 
Last fall was damn nice. Normal overall and quite pleasant. The whole country had a nice fall with no persistent cold or warm anomalies. Interestingly it was warm in AK. The plot below the temp plot is h5 anoms. Big ridge anomaly in the GOA. It didn't cross my mind at the time that this was a clue for a persistent -epo ridge going into winter. Makes total sense that as wavelengths get much longer during winter that this feature would deliver cold if it remained. Nice lesson in fall patterns and what they may imply. The ridging in the GOA warms the water so it feeds on itself. Once you have +sst anoms in that region it gets awful easy to build ridges. Pretty cool stuff. 
 
post-2035-0-78111700-1395930003_thumb.jp
 
post-2035-0-39626800-1395930345_thumb.jp
 
 
The DJF temp pattern really shows the cold delivery from ridging in the npac. 
 
post-2035-0-86940300-1395930414_thumb.jp
 
post-2035-0-55334600-1395930587_thumb.jp
 
Now march is stupid cold on the means so that will just add to the evidence of the "different" type of pattern we're in.
 
Canada has extensive snow cover and has been really cold. Lakes ice was near record (if not a record this year). If the continued amplified and progressive flow persists through Apr-May then we will have a below normal spring. I'm thinking it's becoming likely at this point. The persistence of avoiding an extended period of aob temps has been non stop since Feb of last year. 
 
Summer is tricky. Enso influence will start to show and I don't know much about predicting summer patterns at all so I'll defer there. I wouldn't go warm though until it's actually warm. 
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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
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I think the most interesting part is it started over a year ago. Last Feb was a marked change in the general NH long wave pattern. It was a "different" year almost everywhere in the NH. I'm interested to see what summer brings. Last summer had plenty of breaks from the typical triple H days and we never really had an extended hot spell. The temps on the means are skewed by really warm lows. We had quite a few lows in the upper 70's and low 80's. 
 
Here's some plots:
 
Feb-May 2013
 
 
you can see the persistent cold pattern from the upper MW through the SE. 
 
 
JJA 2013
 
 
We were pretty much normal after multiple years of nuclear heat. This composite of 2011-12 combined is stark with how warm we were and how different last summer was even if it was only "normal". Pretty different look at high latitudes as well. The bounce year in arctic sea ice minimum is another clue that something changed. Hard to say what happens this year up there but I'm interested. 
 
 
 
Last fall was damn nice. Normal overall and quite pleasant. The whole country had a nice fall with no persistent cold or warm anomalies. Interestingly it was warm in AK. The plot below the temp plot is h5 anoms. Big ridge anomaly in the GOA. It didn't cross my mind at the time that this was a clue for a persistent -epo ridge going into winter. Makes total sense that as wavelengths get much longer during winter that this feature would deliver cold if it remained. Nice lesson in fall patterns and what they may imply. The ridging in the GOA warms the water so it feeds on itself. Once you have +sst anoms in that region it gets awful easy to build ridges. Pretty cool stuff. 
 
 
 
 
The DJF temp pattern really shows the cold delivery from ridging in the npac. 
 
 
 
Now march is stupid cold on the means so that will just add to the evidence of the "different" type of pattern we're in.
 
Canada has extensive snow cover and has been really cold. Lakes ice was near record (if not a record this year). If the continued amplified and progressive flow persists through Apr-May then we will have a below normal spring. I'm thinking it's becoming likely at this point. The persistence of avoiding an extended period of aob temps has been non stop since Feb of last year. 
 
Summer is tricky. Enso influence will start to show and I don't know much about predicting summer patterns at all so I'll defer there. I wouldn't go warm though until it's actually warm. 

 

funny you posted this Bob....I was looking at the CFS2 monthly temp progs this morning and thought "nice, that Ridge in Alaska seems persistent"

so if the CFS2 is right, it continues through SEPT

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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yeah, but I said to my secretary yesterday that 25 degrees on March 26 feels a lot colder than 25 degrees on Jan. 26, at least to me

Yesterday was among my least favorite days of the winter. Sun can be offset by multiple factors. This weekend should be lovely. Time for it to rain nonstop with wedge after wedge.
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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Yesterday was among my least favorite days of the winter. Sun can be offset by multiple factors. This weekend should be lovely. Time for it to rain nonstop with wedge after wedge.

after experiencing a Boston type winter, I will not complain about the Boston type spring as much as I may want

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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funny you posted this Bob....I was looking at the CFS2 monthly temp progs this morning and thought "nice, that Ridge in Alaska seems persistent"

so if the CFS2 is right, it continues through SEPT

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

 

 

considering one the the trademarks of a nino is persistent lower heights in the same region it could be either an unusual transition to a nino pattern or an unusual nino pattern period. 

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Ian

Ian

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Same here.I would expect this summer to be similar to last. I'm not betting against this pattern until it's obviously gone. 

Winter is the new summer. 

 

But seriously.. it will be interesting to watch how places to our NW end up doing the next few months. Some of this stuf eventually can feed back on itself as well.  Not a good one for summering in northern Michigan maybe. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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Winter is the new summer. 

 

But seriously.. it will be interesting to watch how places to our NW end up doing the next few months. Some of this stuf eventually can feed back on itself as well.  Not a good one for summering in northern Michigan maybe. 

 

No doubt. The upper MW was cold last spring and will likely be again. This time they have mega ice on the lakes and really cold water temps once it melts out. Lee side shore beaches won't have bikinis in July. They'll have parkas. lol

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Ian

Ian

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No doubt. The upper MW was cold last spring and will likely be again. This time they have mega ice on the lakes and really cold water temps once it melts out. Lee side shore beaches won't have bikinis in July. They'll have parkas. lol

I've never been a huge CFSer but I look more since it's on wxbell.  It continually keeps the lakes area really cold.

 

August

 

post-1615-0-44101700-1395934033_thumb.pn

 

Maybe some NAMing go on there but interesting nonetheless maybe. 

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chris87

chris87

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I've never been a huge CFSer but I look more since it's on wxbell.  It continually keeps the lakes area really cold.

 

August

 

attachicon.gifcfs_anom_t2m_noram_201408_w3.png

 

Maybe some NAMing go on there but interesting nonetheless maybe. 

 

CFS is a fully coupled system I believe -- so it looks like it probably keeps lake water temperatures much below normal which feeds back into the atmosphere -- i think the bigger question is if the CFS is handling the evolution of lake ice melt and how a cold anomaly progresses through the summer due to a delayed melt

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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CFS is a fully coupled system I believe -- so it looks like it probably keeps lake water temperatures much below normal which feeds back into the atmosphere -- i think the bigger question is if the CFS is handling the evolution of lake ice melt and how a cold anomaly progresses through the summer due to a delayed melt

I posted a week or 2 ago how the CFS was keeping temps around the Lakes colder than normal due to the cold Loake

I've never seen that before on any of the previous forecasts before this year

I'm going to go back and look at prior year forecasts to see if it's a first or not

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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I posted a week or 2 ago how the CFS was keeping temps around the Lakes colder than normal due to the cold Loake

I've never seen that before on any of the previous forecasts before this year

I'm going to go back and look at prior year forecasts to see if it's a first or not

just went back and looked at the old forecasts from April on the CFS beginning in 2005 and looked at every April forecast from then thru 2012 and then on the CFS2 for April 2012 and 2013 and none of them have anything close to what the current CFS2 forecast shows for below normal temps around the Great Lakes; I'd add that when it first started showing up on the monthly temp forecasts a couple months ago I though it was a glitch, but it's been persistent on the model's daily updates

 

to be clear, I'm not saying it's right, it's just the first time the CFS or CFS2 ever showed such a cold anomaly around the Great Lakes in their monthly spring forecasts....global cooling ftw

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chris87

chris87

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just went back and looked at the old forecasts from April on the CFS beginning in 2005 and looked at every April forecast from then thru 2012 and then on the CFS2 for April 2012 and 2013 and none of them have anything close to what the current CFS2 forecast shows for below normal temps around the Great Lakes; I'd add that when it first started showing up on the monthly temp forecasts a couple months ago I though it was a glitch, but it's been persistent on the model's daily updates

 

to be clear, I'm not saying it's right, it's just the first time the CFS or CFS2 ever showed such a cold anomaly around the Great Lakes in their monthly spring forecasts....global cooling ftw

 

it's not a glitch -- lake ice cover has been one of the largest in a while (at least since the CFS has been around) -- it's definitely not hard to imagine that the warming of the lakes will be depressed/delayed this year -- not sure it leads to -5 to -7 degree cold anomalies in August but areas along the shore of the Great Lakes will likely have a cold/damp spring with strong lake breeze circulations as we go into April/May

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