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March '14 Obs and General Discussion


WxUSAF

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Just to warn re BBQs...

 

 

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
455 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-502-VAZ028-031-042-053-054-
WVZ050>053-504-160000-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FW.W.0002.140315T2100Z-140316T0000Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-EASTERN MINERAL-
455 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...
NORTHERN VIRGINIA...WASHINGTON DC AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...15 TO 25 PERCENT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* FUEL MOISTURE...5 TO 8 PERCENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
 

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Anyone looking at tonight's light icing event? Advisories up along and west of blue ridge

 

Sure, likely not much a road problem as temps are in the mid-40's now but a glazing on elevated surfaces N/W of the fall line is probably a good bet. 18z 4KM NAM has 2mT going below freezing by 8z for elevations above ~400ft ASL.

 

Edit: Looking over some bufkit soundings, what is interesting is that the GFS keeps the lowest 50mb colder than the NAM in most places. Usually it's the NAM that likes to over do the sfc inversions.

 

Edit #2: Obviously Shenandoah Valley area is most vulnerable in these types of situations. I'm sure trixie (wxtrix) and those in the Winchester area will do well.

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Sure, likely not much a road problem as temps are in the mid-40's now but a glazing on elevated surfaces N/W of the fall line is probably a good bet. 18z 4KM NAM has 2mT going below freezing by 8z for elevations above ~400ft ASL.

Edit: Looking over some bufkit soundings, what is interesting is that the GFS keeps the lowest 50mb colder than the NAM in most places. Usually it's the NAM that likes to over do the sfc inversions.

Edit #2: Obviously Shenandoah Valley area is most vulnerable in these types of situations. I'm sure trixie (wxtrix) and those in the Winchester area will do well.

This is an insult to injury type of event... Enough to drive people nuts who want warm Wx :-)

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I got excited when I saw elevated CAPE on the NAM BUFR soundings for tomorrow afternoon. Sad times to be a convection lover (as I am).

Eventually I think we will have a fair share to go around with this progressive juiced pattern. Unfortunately for me that means many, many hours on the road doing damage surveys.

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