mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 903 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 DCZ001-MDZ009-013-014-018-VAZ029-040-042-052>054-501-071015- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0016.140307T1100Z-140307T1900Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- CALVERT-PAGE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...ANNAPOLIS... LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON 903 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH-INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE... WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARRIVING AFTER 9AM. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE MIDDAY. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. if precip makes it into our area by 6AM, it's snow, no doubt in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 And Ian thought we didn't get ice in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Precipitation looks like it is hitting a wall. Not budging at all down this way. and that's basically what the 0Z NAM is showing the problem is that the u/l low is moving due east so as the precip rotates north, the whole shield moves eastward you can see the u/l low moving due east, and maybe even a little south of due east http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140307&endTime=-1&duration=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Foot of ice or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Foot of ice or bust welp, the pain meds are working, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 if precip makes it into our area by 6AM, it's snow, no doubt in my mind maybe, but I don't think that the threat this far north is from the big precip shield to the south. As indicated by the NAM, it's something that develops locally here due to low-level saturation out ahead of the larger-scale precip. The very light precip could be generated by low-level water droplet processes instead of ice crystals higher up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Precipitation looks like it is hitting a wall. Not budging at all down this w Look at RDU radar, it's still pushing north. Just hit the dry air wall. I think we get in by 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 maybe, but I don't think that the threat this far north is from the big precip shield to the south. As indicated by the NAM, it's something that develops locally here due to low-level saturation out ahead of the larger-scale precip. The very light precip could be generated by low-level water droplet processes instead of ice crystals higher up. if they just said freezing drizzle, I'd agree 100%, but they said sleet too ROA sounding is on top and IAD below....ROA is good to go on snow and IAD can handle warming and still be snow with those wet bulb temps up the column http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KRNK.txt http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KIAD.txt in the end, I think is all academic as I doubt we see anything of consequence falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The reason I posted that radar loop at 4pm was becuz I thought it appeared to be moving moreless due north. Just got back to house and looking at radar am glad to see it has progressed nicely to the north since 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 And Ian thought we didn't get ice in March I'm tempted to attack you but I'll hold back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 How much for Rockville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Attack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 How much for Rockville? Foot of ice or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Attack! Yoda seems to have a hard time grasping forecasting which is odd since he's been here for like 10 years. Obviously I never said we can't get meager amounts of ice in March. That said, models have continued to back off as we close.. so LWX appears to be hedging. There could be some patchy light stuff I suppose. It only takes a trace of ice for an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 (time-sensitive) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/ Yikes -- child abduction advisory and winter wx advisory all at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If believing the high rez Nam, expect a trace of frozen precip along the Mason-Dixon Line at 09Z along with very isolated scattered very light sleet/freezing rain throughout the region, about 4 am (you could say it looks like a 20% probability that any one area will have a hint of light mixed precip: and then, towards sunset, light liquid precip across perhaps 60% of the region, this activity going on for only two to four hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Oh it will make it - virga may be an issue, but it looks to me that precip will be here in the AM... will it hit the ground? That may be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Light snow. 32/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yoda seems to have a hard time grasping forecasting which is odd since he's been here for like 10 years. Obviously I never said we can't get meager amounts of ice in March. That said, models have continued to back off as we close.. so LWX appears to be hedging. There could be some patchy light stuff I suppose. It only takes a trace of ice for an advisory. I was just playing I remember you said something about not getting ice very much in March when we were like 5 days or so out from the March 3rd storm and it was at that time a sleety/icy mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I was just playing I remember you said something about not getting ice very much in March when we were like 5 days or so out from the March 3rd storm and it was at that time a sleety/icy messYeah when there was talk of a major ice storm I dismissed it and said it would trend snowy if it was that cold a look. Houston got .25" ice the other day so we certainly could get some ice. The GFS trended southeast too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The challenge with us (DC area / Maryland) getting ZR in the morning is going to be the dry surface air combined with the system barely not missing us. Just sampled some dewpoints on wunderground and it looks like most stations are near 23F. Looking at radar, tilt1 is dry until well into VA, while tilt 3 is showing overrunning precip edging into NoVa already, but based on tilt1, it's not reaching the ground. HRRR isn't bringing anything significant our way except overrunning moisture that doesn't make it to the ground. Have a feeling this is going to be a non-event, except over Bob Chill's house where there will be at least a foot of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Heavy sleet, ground is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 snow covered here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sleet in Spotsylvania......roads are kind of icy.......temp 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 nws now calling for 2-4 here. an hour ago they were saying maybe 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 awesome event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Still waiting for my foot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Still waiting for my foot of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This picture brings to mind the joke about the man who has one foot in a bucket of ice and the other foot in a bucket of boiling water: On average, his feet are just about the right temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Still waiting for my foot of ice.The curse of the LWX statement lives on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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