hosj III Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Clearly this is another Jan 2000 That is one of the analogs... As is 1983 and 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I just now realized there are advisories from Stafford and areas south and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 34/21.. Precip closing in from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Let the radar hallucinations begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 18Z NAM sim/rad for 7PM was pretty darn good, and NAM is basically a miss for DCA/BWI sooooo... NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140306+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Radar (Time Sensitive!) http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Let the radar hallucinations begin! if you're referring to Disc, he's in Roanoke so he's not hallucinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Let the radar hallucinations begin! They already have. I just spent 5 minutes looking at the radar. Looks pretty darn impressive. It looks like we will be getting frozen something my midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 27/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 27/10 you got that shovel waxed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 FYI- NWS now put Charles and St. Mary's counties under a Winter Weather Advisory... this isn't all that far off from me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Oh, and there are winter storm warnings in NC and VA along with advisories just south of DC. Apologies if that was already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If dc gets .10+ it's a pretty epic model bust. My money is on the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If dc gets .10+ it's a pretty epic model bust. My money is on the underIce? Yeah. Liquid not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Ice? Yeah. Liquid not really. Yea, I meant to say .1 frozen. I don't care about rain. Let it pour and I won't even go back and see which busted the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Yea, I meant to say .1 frozen. I don't care about rain. Let it pour and I won't even go back and see which busted the worstThe edge is always tricky. I wouldn't be shocked to get more early than expected but not necessarily planning on it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The edge is always tricky. I wouldn't be shocked to get more early than expected but not necessarily planning on it either. I hope we get a foot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Got to say, radar looks sick. If that band reaches me, 2-4 seems like a nice place to start. Guidance didn't show anything till after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Snow reported close to my house, but not much sleet in NC_- all ZR. Not sure if that's a harbinger of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Got to say, radar looks sick. If that band reaches me, 2-4 seems like a nice place to start. Guidance didn't show anything till after midnight I hope you get destroyed. Reverse busts are money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 you got that shovel waxed? Ugh, no. I expect nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Lol huff. Love the immediate change from optimism to the typical pessimism in those two posts. I'll be surprised if we get an inch though, and I'd take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Precip is so close and I'm getting impatient. 33/22 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Sometimes being in the know stinks...the radar looks like a winter storm is bearing down on us with a straight shot north into the cold air..just like Jan 25 2.....ah forget it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC807 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUICK UPDATE FOR HEADLINES...FIRST...A REMINDER THAT TRACE FREEZING RAIN REQUIRES AN ADVISORY.SLEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS WHY AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CHOSEN OVER A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THECWA...STARTING AT 10PM FOR NELSON/ALBEMARLE...THEN 2 AM FOR THECENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRALVIRGINIA...AND CHARLES/ST. MARYS. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHEREFREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY (OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALL ALL IMPORTANTTRACE IS EXPECTED) TO BEGIN TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REST OF THEBALT-WASH METRO COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEGINNINGFRIDAY MORNING (ONSET 6AM TO 9AM) AND THOSE HEADLINES WILL BECONSIDERED AFTER THIS IS ISSUED.MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAR DOES THE SFC RIDGE/WEDGE AXIS SHIFTWEST (ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE?) AND WHERE DOES THE LINE OF PRECIP TONO PRECIP SETUP. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPWILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-95 FRIDAY MORNING. IF SFCFLOW BACKS NLY OR N-NELY (WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE BLUERIDGE AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE) THEN THERE IS NOT AN UPSLOPECOMPONENT AND THUS NO FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCEGENERALLY DOES A POOR JOB HANDLING CAD WEDGES. IF THE RIDGE AXISHOLDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THEN ALL ZONES BLUE RIDGE AND EASTWOULD NEED AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Snow reported close to my house, but not much sleet in NC_- all ZR. Not sure if that's a harbinger of things to come. that's good news because it means precip will be further north than proged, assuming those places you are referring to were supposed to be sleet or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 RNK had this to say about that in their updated evening AFD .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 720 PM EST...SFC OBS...RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THE LOWER LEVELS OFTHE ATMOSPHERE HAVE SATURATED AND SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS NC ANDSOUTHERN VIRGINIA. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE RAP/RUC WHICH IS MOREAGGRESSIVE AND VERIFIED BETTER WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THEPRECIP AT 00Z...SHOWS MORE QPF AND MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT ISCURRENTLY FORECAST. CONSIDERING THE PROLONGED PERIOD AND STRENGTHOF EASTERLY FLOW...INCREASED QPF AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THENORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.00Z SOUNDING DATA JUST ARRIVING SHOWS LITTLE TO NO WARM NOSE...ANDONCE CONDITIONS WET BULB PRECIP SHOULD INITIALLY FALL AS SNOW.DELAYED THE TRANSITION OF SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX UNTIL LATER IN THENIGHT...WHICH ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC903 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014DCZ001-MDZ009-013-014-018-VAZ029-040-042-052>054-501-071015-/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0016.140307T1100Z-140307T1900Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CALVERT-PAGE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON903 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH-INCH OF ICE.* TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE... WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARRIVING AFTER 9AM. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE MIDDAY.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* IMPACTS...FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 903 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 DCZ001-MDZ009-013-014-018-VAZ029-040-042-052>054-501-071015- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0016.140307T1100Z-140307T1900Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- CALVERT-PAGE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...ANNAPOLIS... LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON 903 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EST FRIDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH-INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE... WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARRIVING AFTER 9AM. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE MIDDAY. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SLICK...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. There we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Precipitation looks like it is hitting a wall. Not budging at all down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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