NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Thread title change should be considered. Yup, changing it to potential freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Are we are out of the woods on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Some advisories in the counties just to my south and west. Would not be shocked if the Mountains end up with 3-6 and 1-2 Foothills here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Some advisories in the counties just to my south and west. Would not be shocked if the Mountains end up with 3-6 and 1-2 Foothills here. Think I'll be on western edge this time, looking for an inch or so. I can see someone in ROA to Boone line jackpotting close to those numbers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Think I'll be on western edge this time, looking for an inch or so. I can see someone in ROA to Boone line jackpotting close to those numbers though. Yeah, profiles are sleety on the nam--- I imagine the MTS are snow for a while, well-- because they always are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can't believe a storm giving rdu 2-3 inches of QPF rain is going to miss us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Can't believe a storm giving rdu 2-3 inches of QPF rain is going to miss us It be rain anyways.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 That is an epic cutoff on the regular NAM. 4km not as interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Based on he current pattern that I am seeing I am concerned that we may be under forecasted for tomorrow morning at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Def looks like some decent precip chugging up the coast at the moment it looks to be expanding west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NAM has been very consistent with very light freezing drizzle or snow for the Friday morning commute. If it's right, and if freezing drizzle is the dominant type, the temperatures progged in the 27-29 range could cause a lot of problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 NAM has been very consistent with very light freezing drizzle or snow for the Friday morning commute. If it's right, and if freezing drizzle is the dominant type, the temperatures progged in the 27-29 range could cause a lot of problems. I did see a mention from the LWX in the morning AFD that they didnt think that the precip would make it up here WE ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRYMIX...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WILL WAIT TO ANALYZE THE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES BUT AM SKEPTICAL OF PRECIP MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CHO-NHK WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE POTENTIALLY BEING TOO SHALLOW TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN ESTABLISHED. EARLIER MODELS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS. Did the 12z runs change that thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I did see a mention from the LWX in the morning AFD that they didnt think that the precip would make it up here Did the 12z runs change that thinking? nam is fairly bullish on getting precip into much of the area (largely after temps are above freezing) but the other models are not. how comfortable are we in the nam scoring a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 After the NAM held serve 2/13 when all other guidance was losing that storm and was pretty darn right in going low for 3/3, I am not betting against it in the short range in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 nam is fairly bullish on getting precip into much of the area (largely after temps are above freezing) but the other models are not. how comfortable are we in the nam scoring a coup? it's an interesting situation: The NAM precip for the rush hour is way out ahead of the main precip shield associated with the sfc low. It's extremely light - it doesn't show up on any precip plot using 0.01" as the starting contour, but it does show up in the bufr data. LWX may be right that it's too dry here to saturate the low levels early tomorrow, but I'm a little concerned that it has been there in just about every NAM run for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 18z NAM backed off a good bit during the day but still gets some very light stuff in early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I posted in wrong thread earlier but the high really started relenting it's suppressive powers by around 9am and now radar trends are almost due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 I posted in wrong thread earlier but the high really started relenting it's suppressive powers by around 9am and now radar trends are almost due north. FRZAggeddon 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Clearly this is another Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SREF is confused http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140306&RT=15&PRM=3hrly-QPF&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.98903897776625&mLON=-77.03654921875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 SREF is confused http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140306&RT=15&PRM=3hrly-QPF&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=38.98903897776625&mLON=-77.03654921875&mTYP=roadmap The MBP3 clearly looks excited for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WPC hatin' on the NAM DEEP CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FRI NIGHT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITHTHIS SYSTEM'S PROGRESSION, WHILE THE 12Z GFS IS ONE OF THE QUICKERSOLUTIONS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALEFEEDBACK. THE SURFACE LOW DOES HAVE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN ITSVICINITY, SO IT MAY NOT BE THAT FAR OFF BASE -- TRENDS IN THECANADIAN/UKMET SINCE THEIR 00Z RUN INDICATE A QUICKENING TREND.AS THE NAM IS TRENDING QUICKER AS WELL, AND THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULDBE PICKING UP THE PACE OF ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH OF THE APPROACHINGQUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM, BELIEVE THE NAM IS TOO SLOW. THEPREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCECONSIDERING THE LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE. SEEWPC WINTER WEATHER AND QPF DISCUSSIONS FOR THOUGHTS ONPRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 if the CRASS can't do it, none of them can! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm convincing myself that this is being under forecast. If the next week event cannot come together, I'd take some good FRZA in the morning, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 if the CRASS can't do it, none of them can! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_pcp_042m.gif so I was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 so I was wrong best model ever right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Radar looks pretty good. Pretty much due north movement. I have a dp of 14. So I would imagine shield will have a hard time overcoming dry air. But could get a little interesting IMHO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 so I was wrong Is that model the JB3?, i love that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If I just saw the radar and my thermometer, I would think we were in for a major snowstorm. Radar looks identical to the morning of Feb 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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