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3/3 Winter Storm Obs


sctvman

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US National Weather Service Raleigh NC

10 am - The cold air is getting close. Temperatures have fallen to 35 at Henderson and 36 at Roxboro with the change over to sleet there likely in the next hour or two. The real cold is getting close with Richmond down to 24 at 10 am, down 13 degrees since 7am. Still warm at the beach with 68 at Wilmington and 70 at Myrtle Beach.
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Temp is down to 34

R/S line is finally making progress.

 

Have been predominate rain with sleet mix with heavier returns.

 

Returns are getting lighter via radar but precip still falling good. More sleet is mixing in though so its a sign that the upper levels are cooling.

 

 

About .2" worth of rain.

 

 

 

Edit. Sleet went to snow. Currently light snow.

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Its snowing lightly. Finally tranisitioned from sleet to snow.

 

It seems like the surface cold is coming in a little slower than expected, but the mid-level cold might be faster.  Many areas seem to be changing over to snow before they get below freezing, which didn't look like it was going to happen as of last night.

 

I really want to believe the HRRR, but I'm not sure...

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Big size flakes with this burst of moderate snow. Dime size flakes.

It seems like the surface cold is coming in a little slower than expected, but the mid-level cold might be faster.  Many areas seem to be changing over to snow before they get below freezing, which didn't look like it was going to happen as of last night.

 

I really want to believe the HRRR, but I'm not sure...

 

 

Yeah its been wierd on the evolvtion of this. I figured the surface cold would be over powering by now with temps below freezing. But with the upper levels cooling faster still shouldnt have any problems getting below freezing once the snow actually starts.

 

I wouldn't mind the hrrr depiction. Still think 3-4" is possible.

 

Edit:

 

Yeah NCWX10 Im surprised how quick it happened too. Once the r/s mix let up it went to light sleet for about 10 mins than all snow.

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Moderate to heavy snow now!!

 

 

Awesome even though its pretty light here atm. Radar really filling in along the border and Boone.

 

 

 

 

 

Already a dusting here on elevated surfaces. Leaves on the ground, decking, outdoor table. The ground is wet where its actually bare dirt. Whats left of the grass its sticking too.

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GSO is down to 36 as of 11 AM... snow line must be past Reidsville by now.  Interesting... We'll see.

 

Let's all hug the HRRR.

 

I hope it's correct too, this is the 13z loop, the 14z loop is similar off WB.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014030313&plotName=cref_t6sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

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GSO is down to 36 as of 11 AM...  The snow line must be past Reidsville by now.  Interesting... We'll see.

 

Let's all hug the HRRR.

Yeah its been snowing here for about 20-30 min. I just went below freezing also.

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RGEM does show a lull in precip from 1-3pm or so and than from 3-8pm it gets some nice bands going, so it could be hit or miss with the bands, you get under a good band you could get something good.  It doesn't have any frozen precip for RDU until after 2pm.

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