1900hurricane Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Looks like I was wrong in thinking eyewall replacement would hold off for several more hours. This microwave pass from over four hours ago seems to indicate that it has begun. Infrared imagery also supports that with the eye not as perfectly round and the CDO not being perfectly symmetrical. I'd guess Hagupit is just slightly past peak intensity now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 what a total cave-in with the 18Z GFS. now brings Hagupit west into Samar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Eyewall replacement is nearing completion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hagupit is not well. A fairly substantial shot of dry air originating from the South China Sea has been entrained by the system, taking out most of the eastern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Hagupit is not well. A fairly substantial shot of dry air originating from the South China Sea has been entrained by the system, taking out most of the eastern eyewall. I'd guess that JTWC's estimate maintaining a Cat 4 through landfall (assuming a landfall does in fact occur in Samar) is generous. In any event, a very slow forward motion will be the main problem. Hagupit will be over the Philippines for >48h, and while sturdy structures will do fine, sustained typhoon-force winds for several hours will do a number on weaker infrastructure. Freshwater flooding should also be quite bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 https://twitter.com/westpacwx Typhoon Hagupit / Ruby Live Webcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Guiuan, on the southern tip of Samar Island, reported 78mph sustained in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This year in the Western Pacific, while down a bit on total numbers, saw three systems max out at 155 kt (Vongfong, Nuri, and Hagupit). The last time so many storms were rated so intense was in 1997 when four such storms were estimated to have achieved an intensity of 155 kt or greater (Ivan, Joan, Keith, and Paka). Prior to that, you would have to go all the way back to 1964 to find another such year, and that was during a time when recon likely overestimated wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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