Weathergun Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Pressure down to 944mb. That 20mb down in 6 hours. Another 6 hours it could break the record 925mb for Bering Sea. Most models have bottoming out tonight:. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 00z analysis... 927mb! That's down from 944mb, just 6 hours ago. That's the lowest non-tropical pressure I've seen in the Pacific, and nearly matches the 927-928mb storm near Ireland of last Christmas, as the lowest non-tropical pressure I've seen on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 At 06Z November 08 OPC analyzed the central pressure of post-tropical Nuri to 924mb. In terms of central pressure, this is now one of the strongest known Northern Pacific cyclones on record. The lowest pressure ever recorded in Alaska from such a storm was 925mb during the October 25-26, 1977 time frame at Dutch Harbor, AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 http://www.arh.noaa.gov/goes.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Looks like Nuri bottomed out at 924 mb. Back up to 928 now. Here’s the 12 UTC OPC Pacific surface analysis chart, 1232 MTSAT2 infrared satellite image & latest ASCAT high resolution pass. Post-tropical Nuri remains a hurricane force low (winds ≥ 64 knots) with a central pressure of 928mb in the Bering Sea. The OPC Pacific high seas forecast can be found here, http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Just put together this loop of post-tropical Nuri from 00z on Nov 7 to 1300 Nov 8. Amazing how quickly these storms mature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 Thanks for the loop. I'd been looking for something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think I'll take the over on the JTWC's forecast for 130 kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think I'll take the over on the JTWC's forecast for 130 kts... Shear along the path is a thing of beauty: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The GFS and Euro continue to disagree about this system's future track. The GFS(and parallel GFS) slow it to a crawl e/ne of the Philippines and turn it slowly north. The Euro has this system hauling westward to near the Philippines, then slows and turns wsw across the central islands near where Haiyan hit, then speeds it up again and moves it westward into Vietnam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Shear along the path is a thing of beauty: Wow, you don't see that happen too often! Looking at IR and water vapor, I'm getting the impression that Hagupit is "primed" for RI. Whether it commences 1h from now or 24h form now remains to be seen. A good polar-orbiter pass would be exceptionally helpful right now, but the only recent pass was TMI which missed the core. Will 2014's Hagupit beat 2008's? Seems like a good bet right now unless the environment is much less favorable than currently analyzed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It does have that certain look about it. Hints of a warm spot in the center of the CDO per IR imagery, so an eye should be clearing out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hagupit started out with an pinhole eye so it quickly went into an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. This morning the cycle is about over and the core is looking good with a larger eye. The official forecast follows the GFS and turns it north before reaching the Philippines, but the Euro won't budge from its wsw track across the central Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Get ready for the spike in Dvorak estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 OLS captured what appears to be some lightning flashes in the southern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hagupit is looking extremely intense...still having trouble clearing that eye though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hagupit is looking extremely intense...still having trouble clearing that eye though. Looks like it has completed an eyewall replacement cycle per microwave imagery... it takes a bit longer for the cirrus in the eyewall to clear as the vertical circulation intensifies. Shouldn't be too long. TRMM pass earlier AMSR 2 Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah, the eye will clear in time. Early morning visible imagery will probably be quite spectacular. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 ^ Really impressive outflow pattern there. Latest JTWC forecast has this thing at 160 kts sustained at 72 hrs. Also the 12z Euro takes a track that is frighteningly similar to Haiyan, making an initial landfall near Guiuan and then putting the RFQ into Tacloban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 As the sun continues to rise over Hagupit, its cloud tops are beginning warm a little bit. I imagine this is because of the incoming solar radiation on the CDO. Clouds have a very reflective albedo, but it doesn't reflect all radiation. I noticed this occurring in Haiyan last year too. Barring any structural changes, I imagine they'll cool back down a little bit again when the sun sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Upgraded to 155 knots already. 22W HAGUPIT 141204 0000 9.8N 133.9E WPAC 155 907 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Upgraded to 155 knots already. Thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If Hagupit is going to get as strong as Haiyan, I think it has about a 6-12 hour window starting about 9 hours from now to do so. The sun will be down so the CDO can radiate heat more effectively into space, it will probably be before the next eyewall replacement cycle begins, and the system will probably still be moving just fast enough to where it doesn't use too much of the OHC to allow intensity-limiting upwelling. We'll see though, peak intensity forecasting is still notoriously difficult, even when dry air and shear are non-factors like in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Lame ADT 7.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Maxing out. Should theoretically peak within 12 hours like 1900 stated earlier. 2014DEC04 043200 7.7 874.8 +4.2 161.0 7.7 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.60 -81.28 EYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The 04/00z Euro again shows a direct hit very near Tacloban. It has not budged an inch from runs a few days ago. The GFS has gradually shifted closer to the Philippines over the last several runs, but still turns it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS southward trend into Samar continues with its 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS southward trend into Samar continues with its 06Z run. If there is any good news, if it does in fact make landfall, that is probably the best possible location as it is one of the most sparsely populated Islands especially along the eastern facing coastline. Up until this run I was really hoping for the GFS to be correct since it was persistent on keeping the center offshore. The trend the past 24 hours has not been encouraging for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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