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2014 WPAC Tropical Cyclone Season


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  • 3 weeks later...

Q4cX9SV.jpg

 

 

Wow, that's about as hawt as it gets!  While I'm sure Vongfong had a lower minimum central pressure, I wouldn't be surprised if Nuri is rivaling Vongfongs max winds with such a tight core. As you say, we would really need recon to know for sure.

 

Also, ADT looks good:

  UW - CIMSS                                   ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE                         ADT-Version 8.2.1                         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm                    ----- Current Analysis -----      Date :  02 NOV 2014    Time : 173000 UTC      Lat :   17:52:08 N     Lon :  132:21:46 E                     CI# /Pressure/ Vmax                7.5 / 903.3mb/155.0kt                  Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#                 7.4     7.3     7.3 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km Center Temp : +10.9C    Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C Scene Type : EYE   Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION  Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC   Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC    Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT                    Weakening Flag : ON               Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF    C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :  - Average 34 knot radii :  122km  - Environmental MSLP    : 1006mb Satellite Name :  MTSAT2  Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.4 degrees 
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Looking at a potential 2+ bergeron beast. Best I have seen since I have been here is a 936 monster that formed mid winter 2 years ago off the Kuroshio Current and weakened as it tracked into the W Bering. 

I'm not sure exactly what one "bergeron" is in terms of some sort of measurement.  Wow 155kt typhoon that is a beast. 

 

Typhoon Nuri, JTWC analysis points at or above 145 kt.

 12  17.90  132.30 11/02/18Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5 13  18.50  132.60 11/03/00Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5 14  19.00  132.90 11/03/06Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5 15  19.80  133.60 11/03/12Z  155     - SUPER TYPHOON-5 16  20.50  134.30 11/03/18Z  145     - SUPER TYPHOON-5

Last winter, about Christmastime, there was a 930ish low near Ireland. I believe that one was the lowest non-tropical northern storm that I've seen on any weather map since I've been checking weather maps.

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Looking at a potential 2+ bergeron beast. Best I have seen since I have been here is a 936 monster that formed mid winter 2 years ago off the Kuroshio Current and weakened as it tracked into the W Bering.

I am shocked no one has talked about this storm beyond what you stated.

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The 12z ECMWF predicts Typhoon Nuri to be a 915mb extratropical storm near the Kamchatka Penninsula, Saturday. That's close to the record for the hemisphere.

That has to be over done. I can't see how a non pure tropical system gets below 925.

The ECMWF classically over did Irene at the latitude of New Jersey at 933 that led to the over hysteria for that storm. Which then caused massive complacency during Sandy.

Regardless this typhoon has major implications for nearly the entire northern hemisphere the next few weeks

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That has to be over done. I can't see how a non pure tropical system gets below 925.

The ECMWF classically over did Irene at the latitude of New Jersey at 933 that led to the over hysteria for that storm. Which then caused massive complacency during Sandy.

Regardless this typhoon has major implications for nearly the entire northern hemisphere the next few weeks

 

Non-tropical 914mb in the North Atlantic, 1993:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993

 

As for the ex-Nuri hybrid, ECMWF has backed off to about 920mb, which is in good agreement with the hi-res parallel GFS and I believe is attainable. 

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Non-tropical 914mb in the North Atlantic, 1993:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993

As for the ex-Nuri hybrid, ECMWF has backed off to about 920mb, which is in good agreement with the hi-res parallel GFS and I believe is attainable.

Hard to believe without actual obs. However there were buoys that pegged at 920 which is truly amazing. It could have been even lower then estimated, no one will ever no for sure

Thanks for the info!

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