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2014 WPAC Tropical Cyclone Season


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I'd say this is darn close to 135 knots now...

 

Even though the northern outflow is kind of restricted and the eye is a bit messy for something this strong, the CDO remains very impressive and the cirrus continues to expand outward. 

 

EDIT: Eye is clearing/warming like crazy. Went from 7C to 16C in just two frames! (Equiv of 44.5F to 60F in about an hour)

2014JUL18 010100 7.0 916.3 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 16.74 -77.11 EYE 22 IR 87.0 19.30 -112.07
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This could be one of the strongest landfalls ever on Hainan…the People's Republic of China has never seen a landfall stronger than 125 kt, I believe (maybe someone else can confirme).

Does not look good for Xuiying, Longhua or Haikou on the northern straight part of the Island. It's a populated metro, and It is tacking a perfect track to funnel storm surge area.

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word from another forum is that CMA (China weather agency) confirmed the landfall in Wenchang on the NE part of Hainan with sustained 56m/s and gusts of 62m/s and a minimum pressure of 910hPa.

 

Right now, Haikou Airport is reporting 33m/s sustained and 49m/s wind gusts.

 

I'm not sure with the stats but this is certainly one of the (if not the) strongest typhoons to ever hit Southern China.

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This could be one of the strongest landfalls ever on Hainan…the People's Republic of China has never seen a landfall stronger than 125 kt, I believe (maybe someone else can confirme).

 

Close...

 

The strongest landfall in China was Saomai (2006) at 130 kts / 910 mb, shortly after 06Z 08-10:

http://jtwccdn.appspot.com/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2006/2006s-bwp/bwp082006.txt

 

The (previous) strongest to strike the Kwangtung province prior to Rammasun was Hagupit (2008) at 120 kt / 933 mb shortly after 18Z 09-23.

http://jtwccdn.appspot.com/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/2008/2008s-bwp/bwp182008.txt

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Final landfall on mainland SE Fengchenggang. Still rated at 110kts but that maybe a little generous. This storm skimmed quite a bit of coast. Interesting to see damage pics when the sun comes up, I bet a lot of areas got severe coastal flooding.

 

Facebook comment on Icyclone of a possible pressure reading of 889 from last nights landfall.

 

Around 889mb (station pressure) was recorded at one outlying island of Hainan province in early afternoon (China time) today when the typhoon was passing the eastern edge of Hainan, the height of the station should not be higher than 50m above sea level. The estimated sea level pressure based on now-cast data of the storm could be around 905-910mb, which was extremely rare in South China Sea, and also very powerful among all storms in WPAC. Cat.5 should be justified by recorded data.

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The ECWMF is forecasting another monsoon depression like system to emerge from Invest 96W. This probably means except another Cat 2 - Cat 4 hurricane in the next 5-7 days given its recent track record.

 

The GFS on the other hand has two major hurricanes in the medium range emerging from the monsoon trough.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_25.png

 

The tropics are fun in the WPAC when you are in phase 6-7 of the MJO.

 

obs_phase40_full.gif

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The ECWMF is forecasting another monsoon depression like system to emerge from Invest 96W. This probably means except another Cat 2 - Cat 4 hurricane in the next 5-7 days given its recent track record.

 

The GFS on the other hand has two major hurricanes in the medium range emerging from the monsoon trough.

 

The tropics are fun in the WPAC when you are in phase 6-7 of the MJO.

 

Normally I would take a GFS forecast like that with a grain of salt, but it has been remarkably consistent developing dual TCs, and is also in very good agreement with the GGEM as well.  ECMWF actually even comes close to a dual-genesis event before the western circulation takes over.  Still, the models sometimes struggle keying on the dominant area of vorticity in these monsoon trough setups (as you already know).  In either case, should be fun to watch how this evolves. 

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Normally I would take a GFS forecast like that with a grain of salt, but it has been remarkably consistent developing dual TCs, and is also in very good agreement with the GGEM as well.  ECMWF actually even comes close to a dual-genesis event before the western circulation takes over.  Still, the models sometimes struggle keying on the dominant area of vorticity in these monsoon trough setups (as you already know).  In either case, should be fun to watch how this evolves. 

 

Certainly will be an interesting evolution. You are right that the ECMWF isn't too far off the GFS, with the major exception being that it simply doesn't want to intensify either broad low-level circulation that much. There are significant differences in the forecast intensity as you can see below.

 

Again the ECMWF did this already with Rammasun and Matmo (failing to develop the broad circulation beyond 25-30 knot max intensity) prior to their genesis, while the GFS aggressively called for significant intensification. The GFS has been 2/2 so far, and I don't see any reason to think at least one of these systems could get very intense if they stay far enough apart from each other. Its perplexing why the ECMWF doesn't intensify either system given that the upper-level vertical wind shear is low over both systems embedded in a deep moist environment. WPAC systems that do originate as monsoon depressions still can go on to become formidable TCs after several days of slow organization. Monsoon Gyre's can last longer at this broad cyclonic circulation stage but normally you need dry air intrusion via an upper-level mid-latitude trough to interact with the circulation and prevent more symmetrical TCG occurring.

 

ECMWF 10 m winds at day 6.5

 

hX2V0sb.png

 

GFS 10 m winds at day 6.5

 

1HFgtwx.png

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What a mess the WPAC looks like right now. 96W (around 10N 130E) is still in the monsoon depression like stage of development where there is a broad circulation and the strongest convection is displaced south and east of the broad circulation center. A large amount of convection has recently developed over Guam, and the extensive convective activity all across the WPAC is in response to the active convective phase of the MJO which is slowly propagating off to the east with time. 

 

uA7YZfN.jpg

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If you ever wanted to know what the difference between a monsoon depression and a tropical cyclone, the GFS is presenting a textbook example. Its backed off its twin TC solution earlier this week and now looks somewhat more in line with the ECWMF (although is still more aggressive with 90W west of 96W).

 

MDs have symmetrical vorticity, but the individual lobes of vorticity maxima are focused on the outer radii of the larger-scale circulation. TCs have the strongest vorticity located very close to the circulation center. I'd still stay if the upper-level easterly flow abates over the system it can start to develop deeper convection close to the circulation center, but that doesn't appear to be occurring at this time.

 

C2ampee.png

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Typhoon Halong has a real shot at becoming the West Pacific's first Category 5 typhoon of the year. The eye has rapidly warmed to +6C while eyewall convection continues between -70C and -80C. Satellite intensity estimates are running near 120kt.

 

The fun part is that this still has several days to intensify.

 

cDXxxMn.gif

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