wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Starting off the year with a bang.. FAXAI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Starting off the year with a bang.. FAXAI: I literally talked about this on Thursday in Tropical with DeCaria during my tropical weather discussion about this possible development. The storm brewing had a great convection on the northern half of the CoC but was still feeling some shear off to the north from a departing upper level trough. Once the the trough moved out, the system had favorable development conditions with minimal shear and upper level difluence. The polar outflow looked great and the storm was able to intensify. Here it is now roaring out in the WPAC right on schedule. Nice looking storm. Hoping it can develop a better defined eye wall. That would make it a beauty out over open water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Been watching this thing on and off for over a week now. Finally decided to consolidate after many runs of the GFS blowing this up into a sub 960mb Typhoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Bump. Looks like we may be dealing with a real beast of a tropical cyclone in a few days. While the JTWC is "only" forecasting a 105kt peak, the 18z GFS brings this down to 931mb and the 12z ECMWF brings this down to an eye-popping 898 millibars. The system is broad right now and being influenced by some northeasterly shear, but the models show an improving upper-air pattern. It'll be entering increasingly warm sea surface temperatures over its path, with values near 32C east of the Philippines! Eventually looks like a threat to Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The outer edge of the circulation is visible via the long range Guam radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 it's still too broad though.. looks like it may take its sweet time to get that core tight enough (that's what she said!)... should still have a chance at a Cat 3 by early next week i think, some very high OHC ahead of its path especially along the Philippine Sea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Bump. Looks like we may be dealing with a real beast of a tropical cyclone in a few days. While the JTWC is "only" forecasting a 105kt peak, the 18z GFS brings this down to 931mb and the 12z ECMWF brings this down to an eye-popping 898 millibars. The system is broad right now and being influenced by some northeasterly shear, but the models show an improving upper-air pattern. It'll be entering increasingly warm sea surface temperatures over its path, with values near 32C east of the Philippines! Eventually looks like a threat to Japan. 00Z Euro gets it down to 890 mb at t=93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Neoguri looks much better organized on the latest few satellite frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 JMA upgrades to typhoon, well that was quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 ^ And JTWC just followed suit. Neoguri is a massive tropical cyclone and may be entering a period of rapid-explosive intensification. The ECMWF continues to indicate a sub-900mb system by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Beautiful visible presentation already. The 2032z satellite estimate from SSD was T5.5/102kt; meanwhile, UW-CIMSS ADT is at T6.3/122kt and climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The latest one is even better, with the eye becoming more symmetric. Here's the microwave from a couple hours ago showing the eyewall improving although the SW flank is still lagging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 00Z Euro gets it down to 890 mb at t=93. Not too shabby... looks like a slam dunk this makes it to super-typhoon status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Looks like Josh has decided to go for it and chase Neoguri in Okinawa... whoopee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 According to iCyclone's Facebook page, Josh will be teaming up with James Reynolds and Mark Thomas to chase Neoguri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Typhoon Neoguri is well on its way to attaining Category 5 equivalency. Convection near -80C wraps almost fully around a warming eye and outflow is expanding in 3/4 quadrants, especially to the northeast. There's still some signs of dry air, but this should continue to be mixed out and doesn't seem to have been a deterrent to intensification so far. Recent microwave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Warmest June SST's on record for 5-20N 120E-150 E in the WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Although the cloud tops were colder yesterday the structure looks better today. Adt numbers are improving again and put the storm in the cat range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 I think its pretty likely that Neoguri has a messy ERC within the next 24-48 hours. The inner core is pretty healthy right now, but the outer core has already formed a very large 3/4th of a convective ring around the inner eyewall. This system has been blessed with alot of high precipitable water overhead and to its south and east, but I think it will also limit its intensity from here on out since this outer convective maxima is at a very large radii, and it will be very difficult to keep mid-level dry air out from such a large wind radii (especially from the northwest). Its somewhat likely this could end up like how alot of WPAC typhoons become, where the center has limited convection and the deeper convective activity is focused in loosely organized rain bands that resemble a very large eyewall. Hope for Josh's sake that isn't the case, but I would like to see a more symmetrical outer core structure for sure to ensure a "clean" ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 That's an odd feature in the northern eyewall area of the typhoon. Any mets care to chime in on what that could be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 150 mph NW at 16 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 That's an odd feature in the northern eyewall area of the typhoon. Any mets care to chime in on what that could be? Wrinkles... Neoguri is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 It appears the ERC is under way with a very large eye of Super Typhoon Neoguri likely to pass just W of the iCyclone team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 It appears the ERC is under way with a very large eye of Super Typhoon Neoguri likely to pass just W of the iCyclone team. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0814prog.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0814prog.txt I think its highly unlikely this system re-intensifies... now that ERC has commenced, dry air has infiltrated its core... there is no way that forecast will verify. This is not going to be a clean ERC because the proximity of dry air in the northwest quadrant and the asymmetry of the outer eyewall will likely not allow it to congeal into a nice closed core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I think its highly unlikely this system re-intensifies... now that ERC has commenced, dry air has infiltrated its core... there is no way that forecast will verify. This is not going to be a clean ERC because the proximity of dry air in the northwest quadrant and the asymmetry of the outer eyewall will likely not allow it to congeal into a nice closed core. ECMWF FTL. GFS did a lot better with the track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 ECMWF FTL. GFS did a lot better with the track and intensity. Everyone knows Euro's progged intensities are on crack at higher latitudes (and is more of a function of TC size than actual TC intensity). In terms of track though Euro was the first to catch on the further west solution, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 It seemed like Neoguri was very vulnerable earlier today while dry air eroded the western eye wall and infiltrated his inner core. As I type this, however, he has shaken it off quite nicely and looks about the healthiest he has all day as a complete solid and symmetrical eyewall is back in place. Deep convection, well west of the eye wall has also continued to build back in nicely on his western side...The weakening seen earlier today is definitely over for now... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/rb-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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