Heisy Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 You can take the models into account, but no one is saying that there will be a storm... just the potential. We can't just not use the models after the last disaster. EXACTLY, these debbie-downers are getting mixed up on people talking about a THREAT T-H-R-E-A-T and a high % forecast. It is fair to say there is a threat for 12-14th, especially with the EURO ensembles going gang busters. No one in this thread has said "OMG big snowstorm coming 12-14th", all we're doing is talking about the idea of maybe a storm in that time frame, THATS ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If there was a storm the end of the this week or over the weekend would it even be snow in NYC and points east?? Im seeing forcasted highs in the low to mid 40's by the end of the week and especially the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 lol, the 12th - 14th...I'd like to hear a big apology to the group on the 15th when nothing happens like usual with 10 day outlooks... lol you should give the poster a big apology for misunderstanding his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If there was a storm the end of the this week or over the weekend would it even be snow in NYC and points east?? Im seeing forcasted highs in the low to mid 40's by the end of the week and especially the weekend. In a LR forecast like this you're never going to see computer outputted forecasts in March saying highs in the low 30s with a chance of snow. For example, today's EURO at 210 HOURS has the freezing line south of Cape may and .25-.5 precip contour over Philly to NYC, but it is so far out that it doesn't matter right now. At this range you'll likely see most forecasts have temps forecasted per usual climate for the time of year. Most 10 day forecasts are automated GFS-outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 lol you should give the poster a big apology for misunderstanding his post. +1 It is the reaction of a child to say because the forecast in the last storm did not pan out, that we should not pay any attention to any forecasts more than 2 days out. Is it so hard to understand that LR forecasting (and weather forecasting in general) is not an exact science, and that this fact should not stop people from trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 NAM is finally digging the evergy more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Hard to tell but it looks like the NAM would come up the coast. It phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 here is something to munch on!!!! alert level three WPC style http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d3500wbg.gif issued about 8:15 EDT tonight my forecasts may be off .....but my data finds are golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Hard to tell but it looks like the NAM would come up the coast. It phased. It's closer but as presented looks like this would go ots. The 500 is a sloppy late phase at best and there is really no mechanism to force it up the coast. Again. .. This is all verbatim on the nam though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Is this potential you guys are talking about Thursday night into Friday or Friday into Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Is this potential you guys are talking about Thursday night into Friday or Friday into Saturday? The WPC map is for 7:00 am on Friday http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f096_usbg.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 +1 It is the reaction of a child to say because the forecast in the last storm did not pan out, that we should not pay any attention to any forecasts more than 2 days out. Is it so hard to understand that LR forecasting (and weather forecasting in general) is not an exact science, and that this fact should not stop people from trying. No, but it should stop people from wishcasting. It's not only the last storm that didn't "pan out". There is a certain fascination with hoping. There is also being realistic and taking in the model outputs (and not just hanging on one run or one model), seasonal climatology, forecasting expertise, model bias, etc ... to be objective and realistic. It's one thing to note a LR possibility 5 or 7 days out as just what it is. It's another thing to hype it. Something to keep our eyes on, that's all. And he's right in that more than 2-3 days out ... even with consistency between models ... it isn't worth getting your hopes up and putting too much energy into. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 No, but it should stop people from wishcasting. It's not only the last storm that didn't "pan out". There is a certain fascination with hoping. There is also being realistic and taking in the model outputs (and not just hanging on one run or one model), seasonal climatology, forecasting expertise, model bias, etc ... to be objective and realistic. It's one thing to note a LR possibility 5 or 7 days out as just what it is. It's another thing to hype it. Something to keep our eyes on, that's all. And he's right in that more than 2-3 days out ... even with consistency between models ... it isn't worth getting your hopes up and putting too much energy into. Just my 2 cents. Who's wish casting this potential system at the end of the week? Everyone to me seems they are just discussing the potential as modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Who's wish casting this potential system at the end of the week? Everyone to me seems they are just discussing the potential as modeled right now. I think it was more in reference to the 3/12-14 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Updated WPC surface map Day 3 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I think it was more in reference to the 3/12-14 threat I mean either way though I think everyone is just discussing the potential system/s. No one is saying there is a massive storm coming the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I think it was more in reference to the 3/12-14 threat And also, didn't I see someone talking about SREFs already for this next storm? Look, nothing wrong with wishcasting. It all depends upon what the objective of the message board is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I mean either way though I think everyone is just discussing the potential system/s. No one is saying there is a massive storm coming the 12th. Yeah I don't care either way. Plus its just a weather forum..if people want to get excited about a day 10 threat and discuss it here more power to em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 No one is wishcasting. We are all just discussing about the potential ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 And also, didn't I see someone talking about SREFs already for this next storm? Look, nothing wrong with wishcasting. It all depends upon what the objective of the message board is. The objective is to discuss the weather. .. which is what everyone is doing. That would indeed include the discussion of the Srefs for the upcoming potential system. Whether or not they are an accurate depiction is merely part of the discussion and in no way makes the person or persons discussing it wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If I was a pro met I would be a little gun shy for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If I was a pro met I would be a little gun shy for awhile. Hopefully those that hyped 4-5 days out learned a lesson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If I was a pro met I would be a little gun shy for awhile. No such thing as gun shy. Each forecast has to and should be examined objectively. Though I was kind of confused by the handling of the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We are here to discuss a potential future storm..not past storms. Any word on the 0z gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We are here to discuss a potentia future storm..not past storms. Any word on the 0z gfs? 90hrs http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_090.gif most hated phrase of all time????? " A step in the right direction" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We are here to discuss a potential future storm..not past storms. Any word on the 0z gfs? We were making a point on forecast handling that will tie into the handing of this storm. It was relevant discussion. And the 00z gfs is warm and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Anything on the 00z GGEM like the 12z showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Anything on the 00z GGEM like the 12z showed? Nope... driving rainstorm in SE VA and then out to sea it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd ..STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE GULF COASTSTATES/SOUTHEAST WED THROUGH FRI......SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIFTING UPOFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS MEANCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE HEIGHT FALLSASSOCD WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THECNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND TWD THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST WEDTHROUGH FRI...BUT IT IS OVERALL THE WEAKEST SOLN REGARDING TROUGHDEPTH COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE 00Z NAM ALSOAPPEARS A LITTLE TOO WEAK WITH ITS SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NERNGULF OF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATESBY FRI. THE 12Z UKMET FOR ITS PART APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH ITSHEIGHT FALLS AND IS A LITTLE TOO FAST. IT HAS A NOTABLY STRONGERSFC LOW DEVELOPING AND RIDING NEWD UP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTCOASTLINE AND IS TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE NC OUTER BANKS BY EARLYFRI. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL APPEARS TOO FAR NORTH AT LEAST BY EARLYFRI WITH ITS SFC LOW. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE STRONGESTAGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS ALOFT...BUT AT THE SFC...THE GFSDEVELOPS ITS SFC LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEASTCOMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WEAK.THE LATEST GEFS MEAN THOUGH DOES TEND TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELYWEAKER SFC LOW...BUT THE ECENS MEAN SUGGESTS A STRONGER LOW. WILLPREFER A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE LATEST ECENS MEAN BASED ONTHEIR OVERALL MASS FIELD CLUSTERING...BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL MODELSPREAD WITH THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BYEARLY FRI...CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED. (or shaken??) "Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong." Peter T Mcintyre http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_hem_loop-12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Anything on the 00z GGEM like the 12z showed? Swing and a miss and way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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