MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 What are you looking at? GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Multiple storm chances on the Euro ensembles and I'll leave it that. They absolutely love the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 thats why leaky basement walls should have french drains and sump pumps............ Back in January we rented an excavator and re sealed a bunch of cracks in the foundation, that should help keep things dry should we get a sultan storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Multiple storm chances on the Euro ensembles and I'll leave it that. They absolutely love the middle of next week. Looks like it will be a couple of sleepless weeks coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like it will be a couple of sleepless weeks coming up. I usually don't stay up for the Euro unless we're inside of day 4. I did stay up for the Euro on Thursday night and it wasn't worth it in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I usually don't stay up for the Euro unless we're inside of day 4. I did stay up for the Euro on Thursday night and it wasn't worth it in the end. It happens, too bad it didnt pan out in the end and the storm just kept trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Multiple storm chances on the Euro ensembles and I'll leave it that. They absolutely love the middle of next week. after the way the Euro screwed up this last storm at first - hard to trust it IMO - GFS has been doing a better job lately .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It happens, too bad it didnt pan out in the end and the storm just kept trending south. Sad thing is the 00z Friday Euro was a solid hit for the area still. Didn't start falling apart until the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 after the way the Euro screwed up this last storm at first - hard to trust it IMO - GFS has been doing a better job lately .. The GFS has the players on the filed too. Not like the Euro is all on it's own here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The GFS has the players on the filed too. Not like the Euro is all on it's own here. lets see who does the best job coaching the players this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 after the way the Euro screwed up this last storm at first - hard to trust it IMO - GFS has been doing a better job lately .. The gfs had many many straight runs of us getting crushed with the last storm. I disagree it's been doing better...not that the Euro has been better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 18Z NAM still has 0 resemblance to any of the globals. Even the 12z UKMET digs this energy much further south. Speaking of which, does anyone with the extended UKMET know where it went from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 18Z NAM still has 0 resemblance to any of the globals. Even the 12z UKMET digs this energy much further south. Speaking of which, does anyone with the extended UKMET know where it went from here? Most of the models are going to be struggling the next few weeks because meteorological winter is over and they have to deal with the change of seasons - also we have to worry about sun angle more and more as the days pass by so if it does snow during the daylight hours it better under about 28 degrees and or snowing heavy if its not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Only time to take a storm seriously is if models are showing it within 48 hours. Last storm burned us and to start over tracking from 9 or 10 days out is not something I am wasting my time doing anymore this winter. But I understand the pull to do so hoping for that one last big score(big snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 What are you looking at? Pazzo do you look at data yourself? You do realize the Euro has shown a major winter storm 3 runs in a row for 12-14th...ensembles are amazing as well on both the gfs and euro for this time period...the threat is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Pazzo do you look at data yourself? You do realize the Euro has shown a major winter storm 3 runs in a row for 12-14th...ensembles are amazing as well on both the gfs and euro for this time period...the threat is real. I don't put much credence into 10 day threats where the avg highs break 50 during the targeted period. If the agreement persists 'till within 72 hours of the "event", let us know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Back in January we rented an excavator and re sealed a bunch of cracks in the foundation, that should help keep things dry should we get a sultan storm. you haven't loved sump pumps until you go thru Irene, Snowtober, and Sandy and have to find gas to keep the generators running or your basement will flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 DGEX for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 DGEX for Sunday After how the GDEX performed on the last 2 storms I wouldn't use it for nowcasting let alone 100+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The GFS has a cutoff low for Friday which has a hard time coming up the coast. The Sunday storm is right behind it so lets see what the GFS shows for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The GFS has a cutoff low for Friday which has a hard time coming up the coast. The Sunday storm is right behind it so lets see what the GFS shows for that. Quick hitter of 1-3 looks like... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Quick hitter of 1-3 looks like... nice Yep! looks like about 3-4 for nyc and close to 5-6 northern jersey. we have seen the gfs blow up these little storms up in the medium range only to come back to reality in the short range. something to keep a eye on! Congrats on today, nice event down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sad thing is the 00z Friday Euro was a solid hit for the area still. Didn't start falling apart until the 12z run. Even the 0Z Euro on Saturday night was showing 4-6" for NYC (north to south from da Bronx to SI) and 5-9" for Central Jersey (north to south from 78 to 195) - only about 24 hours from the start of the event and it had stopped the southward move we saw from 0Z Friday night and 12Z Saturday. Amazing how far off it and most of the other models were for anywhere north of 195 at 24 hours out and even at 12 hours out - if I recall correctly, even yesterday afternoon, it was still looking like 2-6" (from 80 to 195) for most of the area north of 195 on the models - that vs. essentially nada for everyone (except a few folks who got up to 2" north of 195 in Monmouth County) is pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Even the 0Z Euro on Saturday night was showing 4-6" for NYC (north to south from da Bronx to SI) and 5-9" for Central Jersey (north to south from 78 to 195) - only about 24 hours from the start of the event and it had stopped the southward move we saw from 0Z Friday night and 12Z Saturday. Amazing how far off it and most of the other models were for anywhere north of 195 at 24 hours out and even at 12 hours out - if I recall correctly, even yesterday afternoon, it was still looking like 2-6" (from 80 to 195) for most of the area north of 195 on the models - that vs. essentially nada for everyone (except a few folks who got up to 2" north of 195 in Monmouth County) is pretty bad. Not only that but I don't think anyone in any part of the country saw more than 8" out of this other than a few isolated locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Pazzo do you look at data yourself? You do realize the Euro has shown a major winter storm 3 runs in a row for 12-14th...ensembles are amazing as well on both the gfs and euro for this time period...the threat is real. lol, the 12th - 14th...I'd like to hear a big apology to the group on the 15th when nothing happens like usual with 10 day outlooks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Even the 0Z Euro on Saturday night was showing 4-6" for NYC (north to south from da Bronx to SI) and 5-9" for Central Jersey (north to south from 78 to 195) - only about 24 hours from the start of the event and it had stopped the southward move we saw from 0Z Friday night and 12Z Saturday. Amazing how far off it and most of the other models were for anywhere north of 195 at 24 hours out and even at 12 hours out - if I recall correctly, even yesterday afternoon, it was still looking like 2-6" (from 80 to 195) for most of the area north of 195 on the models - that vs. essentially nada for everyone (except a few folks who got up to 2" north of 195 in Monmouth County) is pretty bad. These type of model errors were very common back in the 70's and 80's. I can remember numerous snow forecasts right before an event that turned out to be sun shining through a thin overcast with no snow and a dark sky to our south. Many other times P-types were completely wrong like with heavy rain forecast for the 1-20-78 heavy snow right as the storm was beginning. 1-22-87 was supposed to change to rain and instead we got heavy thundersnow. But even though models have come a long way from those days, they still have an occasional event which they get wrong from the short term. It seems like a strong trend in one direction right up until storm time is a tip off that the forecast wont work out. The January 2008 non-snow event had the heaviest snow forecasts a few days before the event and showed a warming trend right up to the storm. So the distinct southward trending on most of the models was the red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 lol, the 12th - 14th...I'd like to hear a big apology to the group on the 15th when nothing happens like usual with 10 day outlooks... We have had over a dozen accumulating snow events this year and 4 events of over 8". Just because 1 event busted yesterday does not mean models are useless and we can't use them. It's been a phenomenal winter and we finally had 1 event go the wrong way. Big f-in deal. People need to get over it. It happens almost every single year. People just have short memories. Pattern remains cold and active and I see no reason why we won't get at least 3-4 more snow opportunities for accumulating snow in NYC. People really need to get over today's bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 lol, the 12th - 14th...I'd like to hear a big apology to the group on the 15th when nothing happens like usual with 10 day outlooks... You can take the models into account, but no one is saying that there will be a storm... just the potential. We can't just not use the models after the last disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 We have had over a dozen accumulating snow events this year and 4 events of over 8". Just because 1 event busted yesterday does not mean models are useless and we can't use them. It's been a phenomenal winter and we finally had 1 event go the wrong way. Big f-in deal. People need to get over it. It happens almost every single year. People just have short memories. Pattern remains cold and active and I see no reason why we won't get at least 3-4 more snow opportunities for accumulating snow in NYC. People really need to get over today's bust. I agree with you and we've seen more than one event that was supposed to be nothing only to become a significant winter storm, the post Super Bowl storm strongly comes to mind as well as the post MLK storm. Both were supposed to be suppressed waves or disturbances and we got a significant hit a couple days later. So for every good bust, there will eventually be a bad one. However, that doesn't take away the snow weenie pain and anger from a bust like this. There were legitimate forecasts of 12-18" thrown out a few days before the storm and based on the 1.25-1.5 QPF output models showed proved those forecasts were not out in left field. To get completely shafted to basically a dusting to nothing a couple days after that stings a lot. It stings even more because it is March and our chances at another storm are quickly starting to fade, and I'm sure many were hoping to break some snow records as well. It's obviously not the first time we've gotten a bad bust. Some mentioned the January 08 system and of course the infamous March 2001 epic bust, though we did sort of get bad busts even this year. The most recent big storm gave us a huge thump but the backend end fell through (not to mention all the rain and storms that melted a lot of that snow), and there was a potential storm prior to this one the Euro had that didn't produce. So we've had some prior busts even this season, so you can't just throw the models out now. Personally I'm ready for warmer weather (frigid feel today for March) after all this but just because I want warmer weather doesn't mean it's going to happen. Mother Nature will do what she wants and if she still wants to throw around snow threats, then that's what will happen. I'm not following any 10 day forecasts, but all I can say that it will certainly be below to much below normal and there still are opportunities according to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 NYC and immediate eastern suburbs have had a dry run here going back to the backend (what was it, ccb?) which didn't materialize around valentines day. Shortly after was the potential 6-8 which missed to the east, and then yesterday's. I want to say there was another in there too that I am missing. Going by the forecasts that were out there within 48hrs - close enough that amounts were forecast -- with the events above we've left about 30'' on the table. Incredible how as great as it has been we were close to it being that much better. Of course every year has hits and misses, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.