Rjay Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How so? How would you enjoy it? Activities you like during it? Slip 'N slide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 How so? How would you enjoy it? Activities you like during it? I have a profound enjoyment of all types of weather, not just winter weather. Don't hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You're banking that off of one Euro run that keeps the storm traffic over the southeast. How about we shift that 7"+ QPF bullseye two hundred miles further north and see what you think then? Also hate to break it to you but you should allow the run to play out, because we have over running and then a miller B with snow day 8. Have fun getting a day 8-9 snowstorm on the 12 Z ECM Euro ...How did the 12 -20 inches shown for March 1st work out for you that the ECM showed in its longer range? Never bank on something in the long range and you will save yourself major disappointment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Over an inch of QPF falling as wet paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Have fun getting a day 8-9 snowstorm on the 12 Z ECM Euro ...How did the 12 -20 inches shown for March 1st work out for you that the ECM showed in its longer range? Never bank on something in the long range and you will save yourself major disappointment... I'm not banking on a large snowstorm, and quite frankly I'd be more than happy with just continued storm chances. You made it sound like the Euro was completely dry through day ten. That's incorrect. It's cold and wet and stormy throughout, with multiple chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Over an inch of QPF falling as wet paste. I hope you enjoy that storms as much as you enjoyed today's. So far out and it will be close to spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I have a profound enjoyment of all types of weather, not just winter weather. Don't hate. I just wouldn't want to see all that rain runoff in places it would not normally do so...like people's basements... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I see .5" total QPF over the next ten days for my neck of the woods. Good to see continued storm chances, but verbatim that run was about as ugly as they come if you're looking for a grand finale, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm not banking on a large snowstorm, and quite frankly I'd be more than happy with just continued storm chances. You made it sound like the Euro was completely dry through day ten. That's incorrect. It's cold and wet and stormy throughout, with multiple chances. Incorrect.. I stated that at day 7 temperatures get into the 50s in SE PA and we were dry thru that period and that any precipitation would not come till the END of the run ..which is day 8-9 which is at the end of the run .. And in the meantime it would be dry and seasonable to above seasonable , after the first few cold days this week.. Which is exactly what the model is showing verbatim. The prior low can not come up the coast because it gets trapped under neath ridging while ridging is also pushing in from the west.. So verbatim the ECM there is NOT multiple chances but only ONE and thats in its fantasy land time frame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I hope you enjoy that storms as much as you enjoyed today's. So far out and it will be close to spring No need to be overly bitter or pessimistic just because we missed out on this storm. The 500mb pattern doesn't support Spring like temps. We get through he whole run without breaking 50 once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Incorrect.. I stated that at day 7 temperatures get into the 50s in SE PA and we were dry thru that period and that any precipitation would not come till the END of the run ..which is day 8-9 which is at the end of the run .. And in the meantime it would be dry and seasonable to above seasonable , after the first few cold days this week.. Which is exactly what the model is showing verbatim. The prior low can not come up the coast because it gets trapped under neath ridging while ridging is also pushing in from the west.. So verbatim the ECM there is NOT multiple chances but only ONE and thats in its fantasy land time frame! I don't have to look any further than today's GGEM run to show you the multitude of different solutions still on the table. And if we do manage to get a low to cut off to our southwest like the Euro has been hinting at, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 No need to be overly bitter or pessimistic just because we missed out on this storm. The 500mb pattern doesn't support Spring like temps. We get through he whole run without breaking 50 once. Hard to get snow at 50 even where you live! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hard to get snow at 50 even where you live! You missed my point! The warmest temps ever get on this run is into the 40's and it's only for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the euro 2m temp plots tend to run cold. we'll easily break 50 saturday and monday if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I see .5" total QPF over the next ten days for my neck of the woods. Good to see continued storm chances, but verbatim that run was about as ugly as they come if you're looking for a grand finale, heh. Obviously the Euro taken as verbatim does keep the heavy rain chances confined to the Carolinas, but has this year taught you anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the wettest model still gives us almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the wettest model still gives us almost nothing Which system are you talking about? I'm far more concerned about the pattern beginning day 4, and those details are far from being ironed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Cut off lows are commonplace for March as the polar jet retreats north, so it wouldn't be a surprise to start seeing them around. Yuck. That's the precursor for backdoor front season in the Spring, which will likely be especially bad this year because of the cold water temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 500mb setup is gorgeous. Maybe I finally get my long duration snow event after all. Too bad that this run held back the energy way too long and anything that it shows post day 6 is likely bogus. Every model has the energy being left behind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Every model has the energy being left behind.... The GFS and GGEM eject it much faster. The Euro has a known bias for being too slow in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 15z SREF's Definitely a NW shift. VS 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 12z JMA actually looks like the Euro. For Friday. And then H5 for day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 In other words this is no big deal, the cutoff will be well S&E so we should enjoy comfortable and milder weather. Thank god because today is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't see any interaction between the northern and southern branch here . If it's shunted it's colder than normal and dry but if the center makes it up this far north I am of the opinion that the northern stream would just pushed west and you would rain in most areas. I just don't think it's a threat at all . Hate to be a party pooper but I'm not even a little on board. Sorry to offend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 In other words this is no big deal, the cutoff will be well S&E so we should enjoy comfortable and milder weather. Thank god because today is just awful. How did you get that out of what I said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Are we already posting the SREFs after what we're witnessing today... Tisk, tisk, tisk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Are we already posting the SREFs after what we're witnessing today... Tisk, tisk, tisk... Time goes on, we take them as seriously as we would with any other event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A really active period coming up.Great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A really active period coming up.Great winter. What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I just wouldn't want to see all that rain runoff in places it would not normally do so...like people's basements... thats why leaky basement walls should have french drains and sump pumps............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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