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March 7-8th Potential Coastal Storm Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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I wouldn't be so sure about that. It's going to be at least a few weeks before you can run shirtless in the park.

 

We play you guys today, only sending one of our starters to Tampa though.  Should be an interesting game, only time the Yanks and Nats will play I believe unless we see each other in the WS.

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There will still be winter threats up until the 17th, after that I agree it will likely be over, but you're being really premature since none of the LR data shows a bad pattern for March snow. 

 

You're not presenting any data, you seem to be basing your thoughts on today's bust. 

 

There doesn't appear to be anything over the next 5-7 days, and beyond that the chances of accumulating snow begin to decrease exponentially.

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We play you guys today, only sending one of our starters to Tampa though.  Should be an interesting game, only time the Yanks and Nats will play I believe unless we see each other in the WS.

We only gona play 8 today and hurt u bad . 

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Those departures by mid March are still highs near 50. Sorry. She's wrapping up! It's been a good one, nearly 5 feet of snow. I don't know why anyone is upset.

I don't take any model's bullishness or lack thereof 10 days in advance, btw.

-8 next week is nowhere near 50.

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A lot of similarities to todays pattern.

 

Strong southern shortwave traversing the southern tier, PV to the north. The only difference is that the energy is more amplified and digs a lot more. You sort of get the impression that if it tried to come further north you would end up with another meat grinder scenario. What a beast though at H5 regardless. Closed off 500mb low off the NC coast day 5.

 

I strongly disagree. Where is the huge PV over south eastern Canada? Exactly. It isn't there. The absensce of that upper level feature makes this a completely different forecast.

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There doesn't appear to be anything over the next 5-7 days, and beyond that the chances of accumulating snow begin to decrease exponentially.

 

Last night's 00z EURO showed 2-4" for NYC on the 6-8th..6-10" for SNE. The ensembles also show a major snowstorm for 12-14th....I agree with you, it becomes hard, but this pattern is def. favorable. So its unfair to be saying "winter is over"

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There will still be winter threats up until the 17th, after that I agree it will likely be over, but you're being really premature since none of the LR data shows a bad pattern for March snow.

You're not presenting any data, you seem to be basing your thoughts on today's bust.

Well its already the 3rd and the next week looks snowless so that's only about a 7 day window. I agree we won't see any warmup for a while though

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EURO weeklies today:

 

Week 1: -8

Week 2: -8

Week 3: -2

Week 4: -1

 

Winter isn't "coming to a close" before April most likely. 

 

In fact, the EURO is extremely bullish at the March 12-14 range. Ask any met. 

To be fair, though, -1 and -2 anomalies in the end of March aren't exactly awe-inspiring, lol. Climo is hot on our heels, but the long-range Euro and GFS both hint at more substantial storm chances. All early indications point to an abysmal hurricane season* and severe wx is off an an incredibly slow start**, so in all likelihood we'll go from April through November or something without any formidable weather to track. I'll take my chances with the balance of March and enjoy seeing synoptic disturbances somewhere on the map.

 

* This is a good thing.

** As is this.

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hmm, next week is MID march? I was looking at weeks 3-4. -8 departure for middle of next week (March 12th) would be highs in the low 40s (avg high 48-49).

Next week is mid march. The avg hi on march 15th is 49. Cmon man your biases are getting the best of you.

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We play you guys today, only sending one of our starters to Tampa though.  Should be an interesting game, only time the Yanks and Nats will play I believe unless we see each other in the WS.

Yeah I'm not sure how many of our starters are playing today either. I never get too excited for Spring Training games but I've always wanted to go down and see one. Yet to do that.

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Yeah I'm not sure how many of our starters are playing today either. I never get too excited for Spring Training games but I've always wanted to go down and see one. Yet to do that.

 

I went last year, it was awesome.  It feels like a rookie league game but big league guys are playing.

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My call is that we don't escape the first two weeks of March without a potent wrapped up coastal low pressure system. Too early to decide if it will be rain or snow, but the pattern on the GFS starting Day 5 looks delicious for something potent. Could be nice and windy as well with the PV potentially causing a tightening of the isobars.

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My call is that we don't escape the first two weeks of March without a potent wrapped up coastal low pressure system. Too early to decide if it will be rain or snow, but the pattern on the GFS starting Day 5 looks delicious for something potent. Could be nice and windy as well with the PV potentially causing a tightening of the isobars.

 

I'd say one more shot in the next two weeks is not out of the question, esp away from the coast.  After that, chances drop dramatically regardless of the pattern.

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I'd say one more shot in the next two weeks is not out of the question, esp away from the coast. After that, chances drop dramatically regardless of the pattern.

Im going with JamieO's appalachian mid march snow bomb, myself.

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Fair enough, either way by the end of next week (14-15) even upper single digit departures are highs in the 40s.

As long as the PV hangs around in eastern Canada we're not going to see even a glimpse of Spring type temperatures.

 

Today's 12z GFS maintains the PV over Quebec right through the end of its run. Nevermind the snow chances that it shows.  

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