pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I wouldn't be so sure about that. It's going to be at least a few weeks before you can run shirtless in the park. We play you guys today, only sending one of our starters to Tampa though. Should be an interesting game, only time the Yanks and Nats will play I believe unless we see each other in the WS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 There will still be winter threats up until the 17th, after that I agree it will likely be over, but you're being really premature since none of the LR data shows a bad pattern for March snow. You're not presenting any data, you seem to be basing your thoughts on today's bust. There doesn't appear to be anything over the next 5-7 days, and beyond that the chances of accumulating snow begin to decrease exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We play you guys today, only sending one of our starters to Tampa though. Should be an interesting game, only time the Yanks and Nats will play I believe unless we see each other in the WS. We only gona play 8 today and hurt u bad . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We only gona play 8 today and hurt u bad . Then you'll be able to claim you can beat our AA guys. Congrats. You won't get much first two innings, though. Also, so glad baseball is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Those departures by mid March are still highs near 50. Sorry. She's wrapping up! It's been a good one, nearly 5 feet of snow. I don't know why anyone is upset. I don't take any model's bullishness or lack thereof 10 days in advance, btw. -8 next week is nowhere near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 A lot of similarities to todays pattern. Strong southern shortwave traversing the southern tier, PV to the north. The only difference is that the energy is more amplified and digs a lot more. You sort of get the impression that if it tried to come further north you would end up with another meat grinder scenario. What a beast though at H5 regardless. Closed off 500mb low off the NC coast day 5. I strongly disagree. Where is the huge PV over south eastern Canada? Exactly. It isn't there. The absensce of that upper level feature makes this a completely different forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Then you'll be able to claim you can beat our AA guys. Congrats. You won't get much first two innings, though. Haa.. fyi - Winter gona hang through week 3 here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 There doesn't appear to be anything over the next 5-7 days, and beyond that the chances of accumulating snow begin to decrease exponentially. Last night's 00z EURO showed 2-4" for NYC on the 6-8th..6-10" for SNE. The ensembles also show a major snowstorm for 12-14th....I agree with you, it becomes hard, but this pattern is def. favorable. So its unfair to be saying "winter is over" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 -8 next week is nowhere near 50. hmm, next week is MID march? I was looking at weeks 3-4. -8 departure for middle of next week (March 12th) would be highs in the low 40s (avg high 48-49). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 There will still be winter threats up until the 17th, after that I agree it will likely be over, but you're being really premature since none of the LR data shows a bad pattern for March snow. You're not presenting any data, you seem to be basing your thoughts on today's bust. Well its already the 3rd and the next week looks snowless so that's only about a 7 day window. I agree we won't see any warmup for a while though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 EURO weeklies today: Week 1: -8 Week 2: -8 Week 3: -2 Week 4: -1 Winter isn't "coming to a close" before April most likely. In fact, the EURO is extremely bullish at the March 12-14 range. Ask any met. To be fair, though, -1 and -2 anomalies in the end of March aren't exactly awe-inspiring, lol. Climo is hot on our heels, but the long-range Euro and GFS both hint at more substantial storm chances. All early indications point to an abysmal hurricane season* and severe wx is off an an incredibly slow start**, so in all likelihood we'll go from April through November or something without any formidable weather to track. I'll take my chances with the balance of March and enjoy seeing synoptic disturbances somewhere on the map. * This is a good thing. ** As is this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 hmm, next week is MID march? I was looking at weeks 3-4. -8 departure for middle of next week (March 12th) would be highs in the low 40s (avg high 48-49). Next week is mid march. The avg hi on march 15th is 49. Cmon man your biases are getting the best of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Haa.. fyi - Winter gona hang through week 3 here . It's the bottom of the 9th, 1 out, and we are down a few of runs. Been a great game, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 hmm, next week is MID march? I was looking at weeks 3-4. -8 departure for middle of next week (March 12th) would be highs in the low 40s (avg high 48-49). Even this week after tomorrow while chilly is not going to be the epic 15 to 20 below average as previously thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Next week is mid march. The avg hi on march 15th is 49. Cmon man your biases are getting the best of you. March 15th is basically the beginning of week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Even this week after tomorrow while chilly is not going to be the epic 15 to 20 below average as previously thought never is...seems that the extremes are always overmodeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 March 15th is basically the beginning of week 3. Sure, only off by 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Your comment regarding February 12-13 has no correlation with my statement regarding a transitioning NAO.I'm a bit confused also brother. Would you care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 never is...seems that the extremes are always overmodeledLR always needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sure, only off by 2 days. The month began on a Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm agreeing with you guys about 3rd & 4th week....What I'm saying is there are 2-3 more potential events for snow, beyond that yes winter is likely over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We play you guys today, only sending one of our starters to Tampa though. Should be an interesting game, only time the Yanks and Nats will play I believe unless we see each other in the WS. Yeah I'm not sure how many of our starters are playing today either. I never get too excited for Spring Training games but I've always wanted to go down and see one. Yet to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Don't look now but we have a nice 50/50 low and a ridiculously potent piece of energy crossing the deep south at days 7-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The month began on a Saturday. The weeklies start on mondays. It goes by weeks, not the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah I'm not sure how many of our starters are playing today either. I never get too excited for Spring Training games but I've always wanted to go down and see one. Yet to do that. I went last year, it was awesome. It feels like a rookie league game but big league guys are playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The weeklies start on mondays. It goes by weeks, not the month. Fair enough, either way by the end of next week (14-15) even upper single digit departures are highs in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 My call is that we don't escape the first two weeks of March without a potent wrapped up coastal low pressure system. Too early to decide if it will be rain or snow, but the pattern on the GFS starting Day 5 looks delicious for something potent. Could be nice and windy as well with the PV potentially causing a tightening of the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 My call is that we don't escape the first two weeks of March without a potent wrapped up coastal low pressure system. Too early to decide if it will be rain or snow, but the pattern on the GFS starting Day 5 looks delicious for something potent. Could be nice and windy as well with the PV potentially causing a tightening of the isobars. I'd say one more shot in the next two weeks is not out of the question, esp away from the coast. After that, chances drop dramatically regardless of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'd say one more shot in the next two weeks is not out of the question, esp away from the coast. After that, chances drop dramatically regardless of the pattern. Im going with JamieO's appalachian mid march snow bomb, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Fair enough, either way by the end of next week (14-15) even upper single digit departures are highs in the 40s. As long as the PV hangs around in eastern Canada we're not going to see even a glimpse of Spring type temperatures. Today's 12z GFS maintains the PV over Quebec right through the end of its run. Nevermind the snow chances that it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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