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March 7-8th Potential Coastal Storm Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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Four Euro ensemble members had big hits last night at KLGA inside of 5 days. 9 members had at least 6" of snow. 11 members were dry or showed no snow. Quite a few members had hits post day 8. Perhaps one could sneak up on us a bit in the next week.

GFS and Euro show this threat. Euro and GFS agree on a stormy pattern ahead. Now does that translate to snow? We shall see.

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You guys get sick of snow early. We still average around 6 inches of snow in March.

It's all relative, we've had so much snow already this season in this area, and a lot of cold, so a lot of us are about done. That doesn't mean that I won't root for another big storm. I just don't want anymore cold that doesn't produce.

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It's all relative, we've had so much snow already this season in this area, and a lot of cold, so a lot of us are about done. That doesn't mean that I won't root for another big storm. I just don't want anymore cold that doesn't produce.

Well I agree with the dry cold, I'm done with that. If it isn't gonna snow then bring on spring. I want at least a few more inches so we can get this as our second snowiest season in New Brunswick. I was really hoping we'd break 95-96 but that's looking like a long shot at this point.
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This reminds me A LOT of the February 12-13 storm. There are at least a few parrallels to that event, looking at this setup. 

 

I don't see this cutting. Far too progressive. NAO heading up towards 1. We will need a very potent shortwave as the GFS/Euro currently show to bring this up the coast.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=winter_02122014

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This reminds me A LOT of the February 12-13 storm. There are at least a few parrallels to that event, looking at this setup. 

 

I don't see this cutting. Far too progressive. NAO heading up towards 1. We will need a very potent shortwave as the GFS/Euro currently show to bring this up the coast.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=winter_02122014

The NAO is forecasted to take a brief dive towards neutral. We usually get some of our most significant storms during a transitioning NAO, although it's usually when it's moving from negative to positive. It will be interesting if we maintain this slightly positive NAO through early Spring, at some point you would expect it to take a big dive.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

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That's a pretty potent southern shortwave again on the GFS, the problem remains that we're not getting any northern stream energy to phase into it. This has a lot of similarities IMO to today's non-event, just further south and with less cold air around.

 

The energy around this time is obviously stronger than what we were just experiencing, but the PV moves overhead in tandem creating suppression city.

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The NAO is forecasted to take a brief dive towards neutral. We usually get some of our most significant storms during a transitioning NAO, although it's usually when it's moving from negative to positive. It will be interesting if we maintain this slightly positive NAO through early Spring, at some point you would expect it to take a big dive.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

I'm a bit confused by your comment. I'm not yet concerned with what's happening after this storm. The biggest storm of the season occurred on Feb 12-13, and there was no transition in the NAO as indicated on that graph; in fact in was relatively stable. Additionally I was referencing the NAO rising leading up to the event, NOT after .

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I'm a bit confused by your comment. I'm not yet concerned with what's happening after this storm. The biggest storm of the season occurred on Feb 12-13, and there was no transition in the NAO as indicated on that graph; in fact in was relatively stable. Additionally I was referencing the NAO rising leading up to the event, NOT after .

Your comment regarding February 12-13 has no correlation with my statement regarding a transitioning NAO.

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GFS is so close, the kicker out west kind of hurts its chances of coming up the coast though. It would be nice if that lobe over the Lakes could help phase in. 

A lot of similarities to todays pattern.

 

Strong southern shortwave traversing the southern tier, PV to the north. The only difference is that the energy is more amplified and digs a lot more. You sort of get the impression that if it tried to come further north you would end up with another meat grinder scenario. What a beast though at H5 regardless. Closed off 500mb low off the NC coast day 5.

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The winter is coming to a close, sorry.

Sure; it always does. It just seems inconsistent to (self-admittedly, in many cases) spend a week tracking what was always a dubious event, clutching to the dwindling chances of light snow, and then root on spring the day after it fails. I would say that's a case of being a "fair-weather friend", but that is perhaps slightly paradoxical.

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EURO weeklies today:

 

Week 1: -8

Week 2: -8

Week 3: -2

Week 4: -1

 

Winter isn't "coming to a close" before April most likely. 

 

In fact, the EURO is extremely bullish at the March 12-14 range. Ask any met. 

 

Those departures by mid March are still highs near 50.  Sorry.  She's wrapping up!  It's been a good one, nearly 5 feet of snow.  I don't know why anyone is upset.

 

I don't take any model's bullishness or lack thereof 10 days in advance, btw.

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Those departures by mid March are still highs near 50.  Sorry.  She's wrapping up!  It's been a good one, nearly 5 feet of snow.  I don't know why anyone is upset.

 

There will still be winter threats up until the 17th, after that I agree it will likely be over, but you're being really premature since none of the LR data shows a bad pattern for March snow. 

 

You're not presenting any data, you seem to be basing your thoughts on today's bust. 

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