nycsnow Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Best wind event aside from Sandy in a while. You must've been in heaven Epicness, south shore of Brooklyn was rocking I lost power, trees down all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Epicness, south shore of Brooklyn was rocking I lost power, trees down all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Today's 12z GGEM has 2-3" of rain area wide. I guess the whole forecast comes down to whether the Euro is right and the high to the north forces a colder track or the high backs off and allows the low to track further north like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Fantasy GFS would have the region in the right rear exit region for a 110kt+ 500mb jet streak. That's an impressive moisture feed.Fantasy GFS has me at 300" this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 2010 was the first truly epic winds since dec92 in long beach man that storm was intense. Highest gusts were stronger then irene. I canceled my big trip north due to the snow fail. So I am holding out hope I can get a big one somewhere up there. March 2010 produced epic amounts over 50" way up in the eastern front of the Catskills. I'm talking the the ridge tops over 3000'. It largely missed Vermont though which is where I'm planning on heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 2010 was the first truly epic winds since dec92 in long beach man that storm was intense. Highest gusts were stronger then irene. I canceled my big trip north due to the snow fail. So I am holding out hope I can get a big one somewhere up there. March 2010 produced epic amounts over 50" way up in the eastern front of the Catskills. I'm talking the the ridge tops over 3000'. It largely missed Vermont though which is where I'm planning on heading The amount of trees that came down in March 2010 was staggering on the south shore of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Today's 12z GGEM has 2-3" of rain area wide. so what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 besides March 12-13th storms in 1888 and 1993 there were some other big storms that were rain or mixed events... 1962, 1968, 1984, 2010 with 3.86" of rain on the 13th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Forky at 80F your I-phone is overheating http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif Thursday set up from the OPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 2010 was the first truly epic winds since dec92 in long beach man that storm was intense. Highest gusts were stronger then irene. I canceled my big trip north due to the snow fail. So I am holding out hope I can get a big one somewhere up there. March 2010 produced epic amounts over 50" way up in the eastern front of the Catskills. I'm talking the the ridge tops over 3000'. It largely missed Vermont though which is where I'm planning on heading Just wanted to point out that the March 13-14, 2010 event produced 5-11" of very dense and elevation dependent snowfall in the Catskills with significant rainfall and flooding in lower elevation areas in the ALY CWA and LHV area of OKX that had seen the impressive snow amounts in the late February events. Some ski areas I believe saw possibly in excess of 70" of snow that last week of Feb 2010 (Belleayre might have been one of them).http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/2010/Mar_13-14_2010/Mar_13-14_2010.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaann51 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 March 2010 was amazing. Came out of nowhere or we weren't warned. Brooklyn lost powerOur park lost trees, boats were tossed into bridges. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Just wanted to point out that the March 13-14, 2010 event produced 5-11" of very dense and elevation dependent snowfall in the Catskills with significant rainfall and flooding in lower elevation areas in the ALY CWA and LHV area of OKX that had seen the impressive snow amounts in the late February events. Some ski areas I believe saw possibly in excess of 70" of snow that last week of Feb 2010 (Belleayre might have been one of them). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/2010/Mar_13-14_2010/Mar_13-14_2010.htm Yeah, plattekill and belleayre both claimed over 8 feet for that week! I skied hunter the following weekend and the snow cutoff from west to east was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 March 2010 was amazing. Came out of nowhere or we weren't warned. Brooklyn lost powerOur park lost trees, boats were tossed into bridges. Pretty cool I recall Upton had wind advisories the day before. But then upgraded to high wind warnings, when winds were already gusting into 40mph range, that morning. Strongest winds came during the early evening hours and I was out in it. JFK had a wind gust to 75mph that evening. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/pns/03132010.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Just wanted to point out that the March 13-14, 2010 event produced 5-11" of very dense and elevation dependent snowfall in the Catskills with significant rainfall and flooding in lower elevation areas in the ALY CWA and LHV area of OKX that had seen the impressive snow amounts in the late February events. Some ski areas I believe saw possibly in excess of 70" of snow that last week of Feb 2010 (Belleayre might have been one of them). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/2010/Mar_13-14_2010/Mar_13-14_2010.htm 5-11" that's all? I'm not talking at observation points I'm talking way higher up over 3k. At a certain elevation all the precip fell as snow. The reason I'm so sure I happened to be driving home from killington right after the super mega melt down with 80s and from the thruway the very very tops of the ridges looked like they still had a mega glacier. This is after killington a mountain almost 1000' taller lost almost all it's natural base. And all of it below 3000' Somewhere way way up on a ne facing slope 50" fell during that storm. Super uplift was also recorded on dec 92. It's possible allot of it did fall prior but 5-11" seems impossible based on how much was left after the mega torch. I should have stopped and taken pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 12Z EURO has shifted the Mar. 11-13 snows to the north and west compared to the 0Z op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z Euro ensembles and EPS control run say day ten is the time frame to watch for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Its always day 10 lol. Its cool that the storm is still on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Its always day 10 lol. Its cool that the storm is still on the models. The models all seem to agree on a nice +PNA amplification, but at this range the storm details will have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Can we just agree that we won't open yet another date-specific thread until a legitimate threat actually appears? There are so many hodgepodge threads with no real direction and it'd be nice to keep general discussion in fewer places. And not for nothing, but like I said last week, these day-8 threads have been killing our mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The only value I get from a seven plus day model prog is to know what the larger scale pattern might be, a possible storm to track out of that pattern, and general teleconnections trends that may or may not support something interesting. Getting into details based on modelogy is foolish that far out because it will inevitably change. It's like trying to put a saddle on a wild horse for hours expecting it to just sit still in one particular position and be patient while you fumble around. Hanging your hat on details is most useful and least painful day 3 and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 The Euro ensembles were definitely not as enthused as they were last night, especially regarding the mean. However, they become quite juiced beginning around day 8. Without getting too detailed specific, 5 individual members had in excess of 2" of QPF from hours 180-240 with very few members under one half inch. Something to at least watch as we move forward. 5 members had 12"+ of snow during that time period, and not necessarily the same members that were more juiced. (KLGA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Gfs has the 14th storm again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Gfs has the 14th storm againAs does the GGEM albeit further off shore but it's there, same exact time frame as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This may even be more interesting on GGEM between hours 120 and 192. Although the setup is not too dissimilar from the storm that just screwed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 well then.... here is your PAC TRAC long range guidance typhoon energy to east coast monster!!!!! lock it in I apologize for the 5 day data gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS,GGEM and Euro show a big storm around mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 00z ECM kind of has a strange evolution tonight at Day 9 and 10 and that is the first thing that bothers me is that this threat is not moving UP or FORWARD in time.At 210 hrs it has a low that is off the coast of Hatteras and this low looks to head east off the coast while another low is back over E KYAt 216 hrs A piece of the low off hatteras escapes east while another piece is left behind right along the coast while the other low hangs out over SW Ohio..Heavy QPF across Central and Western PA 222 Hrs the low that was left behind off the coast starts moving up the coast and deepens to 987 mbs.. East of DEHr 228 S of LI at 982 MBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 atleast in Monmouth county you get what actually resembles severe storms. where I am I get mother natures horrible left overs. I am not lying saying I haven't seen a true severe storm in several years here at my house I don't keep a rain gauge over here...and you probably make a fair statement about the fact that genuine severe weather not being that common in the area (i.e. large hail, damaging winds, & tornadoes)...but I can definitely say that there is a considerable amount of moderate thunderstorm & thundershower activity in the Port Jefferson area during the summertime...so much so that the only genuine drought around here in the last 20 years was during the Summer of 2005...broken by the astonishing rains of October 2005...locally over 20 inches worth. Moreover, my sprinkler system went out in 2007 and I haven't been able to get it running since...but it hasn't mattered one bit because there has been so much summertime thunderstorm activity around here the last 6 years no irrigation has been needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We've seen models agree far out only to collapse as we get closer so that's what I think will happen again. the PNA is in a favorable state but it's very difficult to get something this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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