March 7-8th Potential Coastal Storm Discussion

[Sn0waddict]

So all we track is snow storms now? I guess we should just shut this board down in a few weeks?

True. In a few weeks this board will practically be dead. No snowstorms and too soon for severe weather, so it will be pretty much up to you to keep this place alive

[rossi]

I don't mean to come off as nasty or condescending. I understand that most people are here for snow events, but that occupies a very small percentage of the events during the course of the year. I stay here all year round.

I have been here when this was the Eastern Weatherboard and come spring thru Labor Day 80 percent of members will not be here unless a major event pops up.

[green tube]

if this is storm happens to come up the coast, it will be rain correct? So why bother tracking?

 

 

lol.  you're asking the wrong person.  yanksfan is the most hardcore weather dude here.  the guy loves it all.  nothing wrong with that.

[Sn0waddict]

I have been here when this was the Eastern Weatherboard and come spring thru Labor Day 80 percent of members will not be here unless a major event pops up.

Severe weather gets people's attention, mine included. But it's so hard to get good storms around here, so besides that yes it's dead. I tend to just lurk the hurricane threads over at the general discussion board come summertime.

[SnowGoose69]

I have been here when this was the Eastern Weatherboard and come spring thru Labor Day 80 percent of members will not be here unless a major event pops up.

My interest in weather really drops in summer to the extent on my off days or vacation I have zero idea what is going on, people will ask me about 3 days out and I'll have to check my phone to see what's going on

[SnoSki14]

This operates with the seasons and the coming months are the doldrums on here barring a major event. Then we get some life with severe weather season or any heat outbreaks and tropical threats. Finally October begins and the cycle restarts.

[REDMK6GLI]

My interest in weather really drops in summer to the extent on my off days or vacation I have zero idea what is going on, people will ask me about 3 days out and I'll have to check my phone to see what's going on

same here. living on LI the convective grave yard I just see what days are going to be nice to take off and go fishing since severe weather is pretty much zero here in SW Suffolk county

[SnoSki14]

Always flip to storm2k during hurricane season, it gets very interesting. Hopefully there's more of a season this year though it's not looking too great.

[IsentropicLift]

Nothing better than looking at 384 hr GFS runs showing a sub 900mb hurricane hitting NYC only to see it shift to Bermuda on the next run

[PB GFI]

Summer is usually taken up by YANKEE baseball , and that usually lasts thru OCT . 

 

Now if you`re a METS fan , you`re prob back here in July as the season has already ended . lol  

 

Euro ensembles have 1 good last threat next week . Then  BB starts in 25 days . 

[REDMK6GLI]

Nothing better than looking at 384 hr GFS runs showing a sub 900mb hurricane hitting NYC only to see it shift to Bermuda on the next run

GFS never fails to deliver biblical storms run-to-run

[IsentropicLift]

People on here love Severe thunderstorms, and I love them just as much as the next

 

However....most people in this area have never truly experienced severe weather. Sure you have the tornados which hit Brooklyn and Queens a few years back, but most of the damage was confined to trees and debris that wasn't secured.

 

Try riding out the mid-atlantic derecheo from a few years back in an RV at 1AM surrounded by 150ft oak trees and have it be raining so hard outside that you can't tell if it's raining or hailing or both.

 

Or being in Kentucky for the February tornado outbreak from a few years ago. Being afraid to go to sleep because tornados were literally popping up everywhere.

 

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt...be careful what you wish for.

[Juliancolton]

Nothing better than looking at 384 hr GFS runs showing a sub 900mb hurricane hitting NYC only to see it shift to Bermuda on the next run

We need another Bill '09 or Earl '10 or something—two weeks of poring over microwave satellite loops looking for that elusive wobble to the west.

[REDMK6GLI]

Summer is usually taken up by YANKEE baseball , and that usually lasts thru OCT . 

 

Now if you`re a METS fan , you`re prob back here in July as the season has already ended . lol  

 

Euro ensembles have 1 good last threat next week . Then  BB starts in 25 days . 

atleast in Monmouth county you get what actually resembles severe storms. where I am I get mother natures horrible left overs. I am not lying saying I haven't seen a true severe storm in several years here at my house

[Stormlover74]

People on here love Severe thunderstorms, and I love them just as much as the next

However....most people in this area have never truly experienced severe weather. Sure you have the tornados which hit Brooklyn and Queens a few years back, but most of the damage was confined to trees and debris that wasn't secured.

Try riding out the mid-atlantic derecheo from a few years back in an RV at 1AM surrounded by 150ft oak trees and have it be raining so hard outside that you can't tell if it's raining or hailing or both.

Or being in Kentucky for the February tornado outbreak from a few years ago. Being afraid to go to sleep because tornados were literally popping up everywhere.

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt...be careful what you wish for.

Well derechos are pretty rare anyway although now every line of storms gets hyped as a possible derecho...but I've learned severe threats around here rarely materialize

[IsentropicLift]

Well derechos are pretty rare anyway although now every line of storms gets hyped as a possible derecho...but I've learned severe threats around here rarely materialize

If you want to experience some scary weather, go to Kentucky, Tennessee or Alabama. The storms are just as severe as the plains and you don't have all this open space.

[PB GFI]

atleast in Monmouth county you get what actually resembles severe storms. where I am I get mother natures horrible left overs. I am not lying saying I haven't seen a true severe storm in several years here at my house

We have some bad T storms down here since I  got here in 2010 .   Freehold seems to be ground zero  for  the most severe storms in MC  . 

[rossi]

Anything interesting on 12z GFS?

[Stormlover74]

We have some bad T storms down here since I got here in 2010 . Freehold seems to be ground zero for the most severe storms in MC .

It is strange though I guess makes sense that over the past 5 years that area has been both a snow and severe weather magnet

[Stormlover74]

Anything interesting on 12z GFS?

Who cares we're talking about severe weather ;-)

[rossi]

Who cares we're talking about severe weather ;-)

Hey there maybe a hurricane on the 384 hr gfs!

[bluewave]

atleast in Monmouth county you get what actually resembles severe storms. where I am I get mother natures horrible left overs. I am not lying saying I haven't seen a true severe storm in several years here at my house

 

Things have been interesting in recent years with the record warm SST's and the tornadoes that moved north

from south of Long Island. Derecho's like Labor Day 98 have always been rarity for us as the big convective 

wind events usually weaken before getting here like September 2010. The record hail a couple of summers

back over Western Nassau was also noteworthy. The new charts from the SPC show how you have to go

west for more frequent severe.

 

 

[21042for2009-2010]

I know this was more germane to yesterday, but I thought you guys might want to see this. Capital Weather Gang is a blogging weather outlet -- I think the best outlet I've ever come across. Check out this post of theirs. Talk about being accountable, every outlet should be like this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/04/march-3-snowstorm-an-acceptable-forecast/

[NorthShoreWx]

I know this was more germane to yesterday, but I thought you guys might want to see this. Capital Weather Gang is a blogging weather outlet -- I think the best outlet I've ever come across. Check out this post of theirs. Talk about being accountable, every outlet should be like this: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/04/march-3-snowstorm-an-acceptable-forecast/

 

Matt and Ian are longtime members of this and prior boards and are members of CWG.

 

I remember Ian when he was a 16 year old from the snow capital of CT a million years ago.  I think he is a grandfather now

 

Not that I am old enough to remember usenet or anything...

[nycsnow]

I'll take another march 13th 2010 rainstorm on the coast

[IsentropicLift]

I'll take another march 13th 2010 rainstorm on the coast

+1

 

Today's 12z GFS closes off at 500mb over the southern Ohio Valley in nearly the same spot. Several inches of rain for the coastal plain.

[mob1]

I'll take another march 13th 2010 rainstorm on the coast

Best wind event aside from Sandy in a while. You must've been in heaven

[IsentropicLift]

Fantasy GFS would have the region in the right rear exit region for a 110kt+ 500mb jet streak. That's an impressive moisture feed.

[bluewave]

It's interesting that the Euro and CMC continue to advertise a possible heavy precip event

here around the 12-13th since those two dates had both the heaviest rain and snow events

for NYC in the month of March. March 2010 heavy rain and wind, March 1993, and

March 1888.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/almanacs/nycmar.htm

[IsentropicLift]

It's interesting that the Euro and CMC continue to advertise a possible heavy precip event

here around the 12-13th since those two dates had both the heaviest rain and snow events

for NYC in the month of March. March 2010 heavy rain and wind, March 1993, and

March 1888.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/almanacs/nycmar.htm

Today's 12z GGEM has 2-3" of rain area wide.