IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:37 PM, pazzo83 said: I'd say one more shot in the next two weeks is not out of the question, esp away from the coast. After that, chances drop dramatically regardless of the pattern. Chances have already dropped dramatically since President's Day, we're definitely passed our snow peak on the coastal plain, but if the pattern of the last few years has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. I can see this being the type of winter that has snow chances persisting well into April. That PV shows no signs of retreating into northern Canada. I'm really liking a possible redux of this storm. Especially if we can get a bit more favorable teleconnections. Of course this was a big rain event for us, but it produced winds that have only been topped in my backyard by Sandy and Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Upton keeping low % chances of snow in the forecast this week 697 FPUS51 KOKX 031511 ZFPOKX ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1011 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 NYZ072-032130- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)- 1011 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 TODAY...CLOUDY LATE THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. BRISK AND COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 12. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Welcome to cut off low season and back door cold front season. Looks like SST's are much colder than normal stretching from here to SNE so things could be slow to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:48 PM, SnoSki14 said: Welcome to cut off low season and back door cold front season. Looks like SST's are much colder than normal stretching from here to SNE so things could be slow to warm. The writing is on the wall for a cool, wet start to Spring. Out here in the great northwest we still have quite a snow pack on the ground, especially for March standards. We really haven't lost much since the great thaw of two weeks ago. Could be a bad flood season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GGEM looks like a MAJOR winter storm for DC/Balt & VA, a little more north and we get hit big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:55 PM, Highzenberg said: GGEM looks like a MAJOR winter storm for DC/Balt & VA, a little more north and we get hit big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:55 PM, Highzenberg said: GGEM looks like a MAJOR winter storm for DC/Balt & VA, a little more north and we get hit big time. DC & VA isnt just a little more north - as evidenced by today. More importantly , we need Northern energy to phase in with the Soutthern SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah its more snow for C VA/NC...I'd imagine it wouldn't take much for it to come north! The GGEM has been owning lately as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:55 PM, Highzenberg said: GGEM looks like a MAJOR winter storm for DC/Balt & VA, a little more north and we get hit big time. What are the odds places like Virginia get hit twice in March while we get shafted and have more snow than us for the month of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:55 PM, Highzenberg said: GGEM looks like a MAJOR winter storm for DC/Balt & VA, a little more north and we get hit big time. It's not far from something better for our area. Phases a piece of the northern stream in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:57 PM, nyblizz44 said: DC & VA isnt just a little more north - as evidenced by today. More importantly , we need Northern energy to phase in with the Soutthern SLP It still comes close in later stages, it trended way towards the EURO, thats the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Rain or snow, it would be nice to get one nice wrapped up low pressure system this season rather than strung out pieces of garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:58 PM, SnoSki14 said: What are the odds places like Virginia get hit twice in March while we get shafted and have more snow than us for the month of March. A slap in the face it would be...But this has plenty of time to trend north. Like the GGEM. Never wanna be in jackpot zone 4 days out. We learned that again with todays storm ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:59 PM, YanksFan27 said: Rain or snow, it would be nice to get one nice wrapped up low pressure system this season rather than strung out pieces of garbage. We just had a KU event 2 weeks ago. NESIS 3 i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 4:59 PM, Highzenberg said: It still comes close in later stages, it trended way towards the EURO, thats the point. Yup, good point. I've been watching this period for a bit...comparisons to today's storm are not really valid, IMO, suppression will be far less of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If the Euro shows something like this, then I'll be more interested. I'm definitely wiped out after today's debacle so my hopes for another storm are very, very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 5:14 PM, GD0815 said: Yup, good point. I've been watching this period for a bit...comparisons to today's storm are not really valid, IMO, suppression will be far less of an issue It all depends on what piece of guidance you're basing this off of. Right now we're pretty far from a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The 12z NAVGEM punts this off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 5:19 PM, SnoSki14 said: If the Euro shows something like this, then I'll be more interested. I'm definitely wiped out after today's debacle so my hopes for another storm are very, very low. The 00z did show something like this, in fact is gave SNE a 6-10" snowfall. I think 12z might be even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If this storm happens we need to adopt the "2/6/10 rule" - if NYC gets screwed to the south by the polar vortex then another storm will come up the coast within 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I just wonder... out of all of the 40"+ winters in NYC, how many of them didn't have even one footer snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 5:25 PM, mkerwood said: I just wonder... out of all of the 40"+ winters in NYC, how many of them didn't have even one footer snowstorm? 1922-23 had 60" and the biggest snowfall was 9"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Strong repeated storm signals on the 12z GEFS. Whether they come to fruition or not, their will be no shortage of threats to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 12z Euro is a bit more amplified so far. Under normal circumstances this thread would have been a lot more active right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hour 78 sprawled out low over northern Florida. The low is a bit southeast of where you would want it for a classic miller A to come up the coast. Still, this should come north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On 3/3/2014 at 5:25 PM, mkerwood said: I just wonder... out of all of the 40"+ winters in NYC, how many of them didn't have even one footer snowstorm? The following 40" winters did not have a 12" or greater snowstorm: 1874-75: Seasonal total: 57.8" 1882-83: Seasonal total: 44.0" 1883-84: Seasonal total: 43.1" 1892-93: Seasonal total: 49.7" 1896-97: Seasonal total: 43.6" 1904-05: Seasonal total: 48.1" 1906-07: Seasonal total: 53.2" 1915-16: Seasonal total: 50.7" 1922-23: Seasonal total: 60.4" 1933-34: Seasonal total: 52.0" 1957-58: Seasonal total: 44.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The evolution looks slower this run as compared to 00z, which wouldn't be a great trend. The longer it takes for this to start the north jog the further east the high pressure will make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hour 96, probably high 990's low south of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Bit of a PNA spike on the west coast which is helping to buckle the whole pattern and slow it down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This run is going to end up well southeast of 00z. The trough actually gets pushed back positive post hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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