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March 2-3 Obs Thread


Herb@MAWS

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The problem is its 0 z suite was showing 8-10 for DC. Models performed poorly for this storm for sure.  

 

 

We all know the NAM has issues and other models maybe showed this some too but Yesterdays 18z NAM run did a pretty darn good job showing the sharp cutoff for the late morning snow, theres really no way around it.

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The problem is its 0 z suite was showing 8-10 for DC. Models performed poorly for this storm for sure.  

Im not even talking about totals, Im just talking about the cutoff specifically around Bmore..00z nam showed it to a degree but yes I would think 18z verified better.

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I would say 4.25 here.  The heavy snow from 1120 to 1230 put down 1-1.25 which really helped the totals. The rates during that timeframe were impressive.

 

For me the storm was a bust, I had thought the totals would be around 6-8 which most guidance supported.

 

 

Always Interesting to see different totals for the area. I find the Green Haven & Severna Park way too low.

 

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
   EDGEWATER              5.0   147 PM  3/03  PUBLIC
   1 SSW SOUTH GATE       4.5   115 PM  3/03  PUBLIC
   SEVERN                 4.5  1200 PM  3/03  NWS EMPLOYEE
   ODENTON                4.2   130 PM  3/03  NWS EMPLOYEE
   BWI AIRPORT            3.8   100 PM  3/03  AIRPORT
   FORT MEADE             3.1  1200 PM  3/03  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SEVERNA PARK           2.5  1100 AM  3/03  PUBLIC
   1 NNE OWINGS           1.7  1202 PM  3/03  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 NE GREEN HAVEN       1.5  1230 PM  3/03  TRAINED SPOTTER

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Still light to moderate snow, measured 3.5" on driveway about 40 minutes ago.  Using Staunton as the back edge estimation on the KLWX radar.  Might get pretty close to the 6" mark if we could get some decent rates.  Temps have been ticking up now at 21.8, probably because it has been very bright all day.  Nice storm, very picturesque right now.

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I would say 4.25 here. The heavy snow from 1120 to 1230 put down 1-1.25 which really helped the totals. The rates during that timeframe were impressive.

For me the storm was a bust, I had thought the totals would be around 6-8 which most guidance supported.

Always Interesting to see different totals for the area. I find the Green Haven & Severna Park way too low.

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...

EDGEWATER 5.0 147 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 SSW SOUTH GATE 4.5 115 PM 3/03 PUBLIC

SEVERN 4.5 1200 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

ODENTON 4.2 130 PM 3/03 NWS EMPLOYEE

BWI AIRPORT 3.8 100 PM 3/03 AIRPORT

FORT MEADE 3.1 1200 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERNA PARK 2.5 1100 AM 3/03 PUBLIC

1 NNE OWINGS 1.7 1202 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

1 NE GREEN HAVEN 1.5 1230 PM 3/03 TRAINED SPOTTER

That was me that sent in the 2.5" for Severna Park. That was at 11am. I sent in a new one right after this was released.

I ended up with 3.2" and yes I know how to measure.

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That was me that sent in the 2.5" for Severna Park. That was at 11am. I sent in a new one right after this was released.

I ended up with 3.2" and yes I know how to measure.

 

Oh okay, that makes sense, I was just curious with the totals that were submitted.

 

Edit: I didn't notice the time for your total on the report.

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as soon as the snow stopped, that insanely high sun angle is already lasering the snow on the road! You dont need a plow when you live on the tropical fall line

When I finished shoveling the driveway, the little lines of snow left over quickly melted. My street is almost clean and the sun hasn't peaked out at all. I think a lot of it is from the leftover heat from yesterdays warm up. The asphalt held onto some of the heat and is now releasing it. That and the sun angle. Killer for February 31.

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there were a lot of warning signs, but we often choose to ignore them

 

 - late flip/warm nose

 - wasted QPF in the 6z to 12z panel

 - 0z RGEM/GGEM

 - 0z Euro (1am is not too late to revise a forecast for people when they wake up

 - 18z NAM

 - dry air pacman

 - poor snow growth (upslope style snow)

 - March/Climo..

 

So, I just did a snow core reading.  Total snow ratios in the lower 8s.  So, we were probably 7:1 for much of it, and then made up some ground with the better stuff at the end.  I think everyone was so transfixed by the surface temps that we all kind of ignored the warm-ish upper levels.  0.57" in the core, so the models weren't too bad about the QPF after the flip.

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