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March 2-3 Obs Thread


Herb@MAWS

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Places that have verified warning criteria based on spotter reports:

Frederick County, MD

Carroll County, MD

Baltimore County,  MD

Harford County, MD

Montgomery County, MD

Fairfax County and City, VA

Fauqier County, VA

Frederick County, VA

Loudoun County, VA

Warren County, VA

 

 

In other words, the northern and western 'burbs :lol:  

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I've followed every single snow event for 10+ years...every one...like 70 events in a row, and 2 things I have observed among others...and I am certainly not the only one to observe these things....we tend to finish strong - - it snows quite a bit beyond when we think it is ending based on radar..... and no matter what models say, the NW burbs usually do well, because secondary banding sets up well NW of the main modeled precip maxima

 

I don't have the same level of experience following these like you, but what level I do have...I agree with what you're saying here.  I can recall several times where we finished strong at the end.  Not sure if it's a general rule or for certain types of storms, but I've seen it happen regardless.  Immediately coming to mind (recent ones) would be Mar. 1-2; 2009, Jan. 21, 2014; and this current event.  I might even throw in that clipper in Jan. 2003, we seemed to score pretty big right at the tail end.  There are probably others, too, I'm sure.

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I see your side. Remember though...it is just guidance... A simulation of what that particular model expects to happen. As a forecaster it is not a good idea to rely on the model accumulated qpf and snowfall. Many times its high. Fact is... Yes the models spit out decent amounts of snow but in this case you start warm then bring a southward moving shallow airmass in with a battleground going on.

It is better to know the climatology, what the type of pattern produced in the past, understand known biases within the NWP fields and then have a good conceptual picture of what you think will happen. Then look at the guidance. A model could throw out 8 inches of snow but it doesn't tell you the dendrite structure or whether or not it will effectively accumulate. Just my 2 cents.

 

We all know it's guidance...well some of us, but many don't and just rip and read it. That was my gripe.

 

Anyways, nice to see the possibility I mentioned of the dryslot filling in, working out a bit for DC.

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In N. Arlington, steady pixie dust all day has accumulated around 3+ inches.  Never any big flakes. Sputtering for the last hour a bit, but still continuing.  Took the dog out and it was bitter cold.  Thankfully, she didn't want to stay out long.

pixiedust here in South Arlington too.

The last burst (with visible flakes LOL) is coming through, and so did a spreader as I typed.

My joke: as I said this, the DOTberg plow came through and gave me 6" DOTbergs, fortunately not Quite in my own driveway. The joke was to be that I worked very hard (even with an empty flamethrower) to anti-Murphy the situation by (1) joining Shopping Madness and (2) getting all the vehicles off the street (so they wouldn't be plowed in).

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