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March 2-3 Obs Thread


Herb@MAWS

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Any totals so far for DC?...I haven't been able to check in, in a couple hours

 

As of 8:55 am:

 

 

 

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...

1 NE AMERICAN UNIVER 2.0 845 AM 3/03 BROADCAST MEDIA

1 NW ANACOSTIA 1.5 700 AM 3/03 PUBLIC

 
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I was way skeptical about 12"+. There wasn't enough time for it unless it snowed 2"/hr for 6 hours. That can happen but it requires a noreaster type system or nutty ull nearby.

I though 6-8 dca was very reasonable though.

 

These situations are probably tougher than normal for many reasons. 6-8 was a good call based on where we stood for sure.  I think many will end up ekeing into the low end of forecasts anyway.  Much of the issue is communication I suppose. People still run to the high end of forecasts and if they don't get that it's a bust.

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I was way skeptical about 12"+. There wasn't enough time for it unless it snowed 2"/hr for 6 hours. That can happen but it requires a noreaster type system or nutty ull nearby.

I though 6-8 dca was very reasonable though.

I never really bought into the thunder idea as the sounding didn't show elevated instability.  Not sure why anyone forecast over 12 even with the euro forecast given the uncertainty of the changeover.  I did think we'd see a better band....I guess they always end up north no matter what

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Im not talking about intensity...If you got into a snow hole or dry slot, the air has dried out...its tough to resaturate a column of atmosphere when you have arctic air pouring in

Dewpoints are still adequate..the dryslot is essentially a wedge of sinking air. Nothing precludes the return of precip in areas temporarily shut off.

I have a friend in Poolesville. It had stopped snowing there for 15 min..now snowing moderately again.

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These situations are probably tougher than normal for many reasons. 6-8 was a good call based on where we stood for sure.  I think many will end up ekeing into the low end of forecasts anyway.  Much of the issue is communication I suppose. People still run to the high end of forecasts and if they don't get that it's a bust.

The average snow weenie will assume the high end of the highest official forecast in the previous 24 hours and the tack on another 2-3" on the assumption that the forecast will bust low or they get banded.

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I'm just under 4". I said yesterday I would be surprised if I got less than 6". Personal bust unless the last hurrah does something unexpected.

With that being said, this storm had little precedence to go off of. There wasn't much "remember the last time we had a storm like this..." to help shape the forecast beyond models.

We all suspected the dry artic air pressing in could pose problems but nobody could say with any certainty how it would play out.

Looking upstream yesterday afternoon and last night had prolific rain/sleet/thunder etc. Heck, Memphis has 2"+ of rain. That's usually a good sign for us to get heavy precip.

In the end, the culprit is the very dry arctic air doing its dirty work. It was underestimated and undermodeled. Next time it's in play with some sort of similar setup some year in the future we can look back to this and use it as data to help shape the forecast.

 

Excellent points.  The problem, or "dilemma" for this time of year, at least without a coastal system safely off the coast, is that without this push of arctic air, we probably have p-type issues, ala the Snowquester system last March 6th. It was a narrow window of opportunity of squeezing out as much moisture out of the atmosphere before the column drying out.  Meanwhile, at some point within that time window, we hoped for nice lift/moisture within the max dendritic growth layer (-12 to -18C), allowing for some bigger flakes and better SLRs.  With WSW-ENE strong frontogenetic type events such as these, you know you're going to get banding, sometimes with convection, though with that said there's usually compensating lower snowfall rates in between stronger bands.  That's what many of us in the metro area have been seeing this morning.

 

Bottom line is we enjoy the 3-6" that most of us will get, especially the anomalous cold for early March.  A coastal runner would no doubt have had more "boom" potential, especially west of I-95, and especially with an ambient arctic airmass in place, but depending on that anteceding airmass (and the low track relative to the coast), those of us along and east of the fall line would likely be dealing with mixed precip issues.  There's just a very narrow window for widespread 8+ inches across the entire metro region this time of year. 

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Seems to have stopped here in McLean.  First real stoppage. 

 

Curious how this ends up.  If you had asked me at 7 if we would hit the 5" amount to not be a "bust" per the CWG metric, I would have said no chance.  Now it looks pretty close.  If this stoppage doesn't last too long, I think I'll hit that low end of the forecast.  Looks like about 4 inches now but I haven't done a measurement yet. 

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