weatherCCB Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm just under 4". I said yesterday I would be surprised if I got less than 6". Personal bust unless the last hurrah does something unexpected. With that being said, this storm had little precedence to go off of. There wasn't much "remember the last time we had a storm like this..." to help shape the forecast beyond models. We all suspected the dry artic air pressing in could pose problems but nobody could say with any certainty how it would play out. Looking upstream yesterday afternoon and last night had prolific rain/sleet/thunder etc. Heck, Memphis has 2"+ of rain. That's usually a good sign for us to get heavy precip. In the end, the culprit is the very dry arctic air doing its dirty work. It was underestimated and undermodeled. Next time it's in play with some sort of similar setup some year in the future we can look back to this and use it as data to help shape the forecast. Yea, my bar was 5". Hoping the last band or 2 verify . Might have a chance. Really can't complain. This winter has over performed on all aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 sim rad from here on out (today) may not turn out to be a very useful tool I never looked after last night. I was modeled out after the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dry slot really closing in on DC quickly now. DC looking good, snow backing filling just to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Bands continuing to feed from the west out here near Dulles. Snow hole closing up nicely. We maybe able to hit 8" when all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just under 5 inches in Haymarket, moderate snow at 10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 my main thing is climo still matters even in an abnormal situation. the 10-14" was pretty ridiculous.. there was no support for that really. same with other calls for 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm ready to kiss the dryslot. I'm guestimating 3.5" thus far. 16.4/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snow hole is shrinking, hopefully those bands keep feeding from West Virginia. Frederick, Northern MoCo, Howard County, really got screwed. Nearing 5" with plenty more to go here. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php End of loop you can kind of see it filling back in. Apparently you are not reading my posts...if any place stopped snowing, its going to be tough to get it back. Even with radar returns...the dry air is too much, most of its not reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Is it snowing again in Leesburg and Clarksburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe 2 inches in Odenton, MD. Haven't been paying much attention, so is this about it? (sorry for the question). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 No melting and January cold = a huge win for me. This entire winter has been fantastic with totals over climo after some early forecasts called the winter a bust. I doubt I could be more happy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 my main thing is climo still matters even in an abnormal situation. the 10-14" was pretty ridiculous.. there was no support for that really. same with other calls for 12"+. Agree they were. Bob mentioned the dry air issue. But the changeover was poorly modeled as well. DC lost 3 hours of modeled snow because of that. I thought the 5-8 calls last night were good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Apparently you are not reading my posts...if any place stopped snowing, its going to be tough to get it back. Even with radar returns...the dry air is too much, most of its not reaching the ground You're wrong. Variations in sinking/rising motion within the shield is the culprit for precip intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Euro showed double digit snowfall on plenty of runs. 3-5" ended up being more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Down to flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sterling hasn't backed off much for Cville. Called for 8-12 late last night, now calling for 7-11. I'm thinking lower end, but still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We never get the thunder that everyone says we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dry slot really closing in on DC quickly now. DC looking good, snow backing filling just to the northwest. Edit: Ian beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The snow hole filled in above Leesburg. Snowing hard again, bigger flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sounds like Bob Ryan will be right as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Interesting line having attached together suddenly in NW MoCo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the south trend never stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 my main thing is climo still matters even in an abnormal situation. the 10-14" was pretty ridiculous.. there was no support for that really. same with other calls for 12"+. I was way skeptical about 12"+. There wasn't enough time for it unless it snowed 2"/hr for 6 hours. That can happen but it requires a noreaster type system or nutty ull nearby. I though 6-8 dca was very reasonable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's March and I'm going to try and use the leaf blower to clear 3" of snow. Now if only we can get BWI to hit 4 tonight for the all-time March record. I just blew off half my driveway with the blower. The snow is pretty dense and damn is it cold...feels like Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Any totals so far for DC?...I haven't been able to check in, in a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbook Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Heavy snow again in Oakton. Pushing past 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Any totals so far for DC?...I haven't been able to check in, in a couple hours 3.5" in NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You're wrong. Variations in sinking/rising motion within the shield is the culprit for precip intensity. Im not talking about intensity...If you got into a snow hole or dry slot, the air has dried out...its tough to resaturate a column of atmosphere when you have arctic air pouring in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Big fluffy dendrites in Middletown and accumulating quickly. Meanwhile my wife says that at home in Stephens City (6 miles norht) it's not snowing at all. Will certainly hit 4" here in Middletown, not sure about Stephens City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 More like 3". Maybe 2 inches in Odenton, MD. Haven't been paying much attention, so is this about it? (sorry for the question). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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