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March 2-3 Obs Thread


Herb@MAWS

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I'm just under 4". I said yesterday I would be surprised if I got less than 6". Personal bust unless the last hurrah does something unexpected.

With that being said, this storm had little precedence to go off of. There wasn't much "remember the last time we had a storm like this..." to help shape the forecast beyond models.

We all suspected the dry artic air pressing in could pose problems but nobody could say with any certainty how it would play out.

Looking upstream yesterday afternoon and last night had prolific rain/sleet/thunder etc. Heck, Memphis has 2"+ of rain. That's usually a good sign for us to get heavy precip.

In the end, the culprit is the very dry arctic air doing its dirty work. It was underestimated and undermodeled. Next time it's in play with some sort of similar setup some year in the future we can look back to this and use it as data to help shape the forecast.

Yea, my bar was 5". Hoping the last band or 2 verify . Might have a chance.

Really can't complain. This winter has over performed on all aspects.

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my main thing is climo still matters even in an abnormal situation. the 10-14" was pretty ridiculous.. there was no support for that really. same with other calls for 12"+. 

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Snow hole is shrinking, hopefully those bands keep feeding from West Virginia.

 

Frederick, Northern MoCo, Howard County, really got screwed.

 

Nearing 5" with plenty more to go here.

 

http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php

 

End of loop you can kind of see it filling back in.

Apparently you are not reading my posts...if any place stopped snowing, its going to be tough to get it back. Even with radar returns...the dry air is too much, most of its not reaching the ground

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No melting and January cold = a huge win for me.  This entire winter has been fantastic with totals over climo after some early forecasts called the winter a bust.  I doubt I could be more happy right now.

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my main thing is climo still matters even in an abnormal situation. the 10-14" was pretty ridiculous.. there was no support for that really. same with other calls for 12"+. 

 

Agree they were. Bob mentioned the dry air issue. But the changeover was poorly modeled as well. DC lost 3 hours of modeled snow because of that. I thought the 5-8 calls last night were good.

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my main thing is climo still matters even in an abnormal situation. the 10-14" was pretty ridiculous.. there was no support for that really. same with other calls for 12"+.

I was way skeptical about 12"+. There wasn't enough time for it unless it snowed 2"/hr for 6 hours. That can happen but it requires a noreaster type system or nutty ull nearby.

I though 6-8 dca was very reasonable though.

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It's March and I'm going to try and use the leaf blower to clear 3" of snow.  Now if only we can get BWI to hit 4 tonight for the all-time March record.

I just blew off half my driveway with the blower. The snow is pretty dense and damn is it cold...feels like Vermont.

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You're wrong. Variations in sinking/rising motion within the shield is the culprit for precip intensity.

Im not talking about intensity...If you got into a snow hole or dry slot, the air has dried out...its tough to resaturate a column of atmosphere when you have arctic air pouring in

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