Grothar of Herndon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 16 SN. Still snowing at a decent rate. 4.5-5". The dry slot staying just north and I think we will pull at least 6" in Herndon area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSquid Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOL. Good one. It's not easy at all. With all our education and training we are imperfect at best. I did it for 20+ years in the Navy - and on a moving target. Most folks don't understand that you really have to watch the weather, sats, and models on an almost continuous basis to be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The dry area on radar is the real deal. It hasn't snowed a flake here in well over an hour. I also wonder if the stuff on radar to the west is real or if it is showing up simply because it's further from the radar. I think we'll get another quick burst here shortly before it shuts off for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snow has shut off in Rockville. Looks like we ended with around 4 inches, but will use others' measurements to help verify. I'm happy with my march snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Reston area has been snowing non stop since early this morning. As of now there is no sign of a letup. Confirm...it has been ripping out here and still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 a green area of snow may be developing over DC and arlington. I might even get in on some of that action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not sure the 6-8 vs 10-14 talk even matters as much as the fact that the majority of places probably won't verify their WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snow hole is shrinking, hopefully those bands keep feeding from West Virginia. Frederick, Northern MoCo, Howard County, really got screwed. Nearing 5" with plenty more to go here. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php End of loop you can kind of see it filling back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like the dryslot is trying to fill in a bit. If the snow were to shut off now I'd be content with my 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The days of pretty simulated radar images and weenie snow maps are making the science worse. Weenies getting expectations too high. I see your side. Remember though...it is just guidance... A simulation of what that particular model expects to happen. As a forecaster it is not a good idea to rely on the model accumulated qpf and snowfall. Many times its high. Fact is... Yes the models spit out decent amounts of snow but in this case you start warm then bring a southward moving shallow airmass in with a battleground going on. It is better to know the climatology, what the type of pattern produced in the past, understand known biases within the NWP fields and then have a good conceptual picture of what you think will happen. Then look at the guidance. A model could throw out 8 inches of snow but it doesn't tell you the dendrite structure or whether or not it will effectively accumulate. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm just under 4". I said yesterday I would be surprised if I got less than 6". Personal bust unless the last hurrah does something unexpected. With that being said, this storm had little precedence to go off of. There wasn't much "remember the last time we had a storm like this..." to help shape the forecast beyond models. We all suspected the dry artic air pressing in could pose problems but nobody could say with any certainty how it would play out. Looking upstream yesterday afternoon and last night had prolific rain/sleet/thunder etc. Heck, Memphis has 2"+ of rain. That's usually a good sign for us to get heavy precip. In the end, the culprit is the very dry arctic air doing its dirty work. It was underestimated and undermodeled. Next time it's in play with some sort of similar setup some year in the future we can look back to this and use it as data to help shape the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 some lonely flakes still falling here and the sky has darkened once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snow has shut off here in southern Rockville 18/10 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I guess there may be a better time and place to discuss the hits and misses of a forecast. No complaints just bummed we didn't get to near the high end of the forecasts. It is still snowing lightly and 19 degrees cold. All very white and pretty. Great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dry slot really closing in on DC quickly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 DC looking good, snow backing filling just to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 best snow of the day here right now. might make 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Anyone talking about "bust" or "underperforming" or bashing NWS in general is being unreasonable. No such thing as a snow bust in March around here, given the relative rarity of snowfall during the month. The early AM zone foreasts yesterday were a bit aggressive, but were dialed back as more data emerged. I've been under 6-10 forecast since yesterday, and that will easily verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm just under 4". I said yesterday I would be surprised if I got less than 6". Personal bust unless the last hurrah does something unexpected. With that being said, this storm had little precedence to go off of. There wasn't much "remember the last time we had a storm like this..." to help shape the forecast beyond models. We all suspected the dry artic air pressing in could pose problems but nobody could say with any certainty how it would play out. Looking upstream yesterday afternoon and last night had prolific rain/sleet/thunder etc. Heck, Memphis has 2"+ of rain. That's usually a good sign for us to get heavy precip. In the end, the culprit is the very dry arctic air doing its dirty work. It was underestimated and undermodeled. Next time it's in play with some sort of similar setup some year in the future we can look back to this and use it as data to help shape the forecast. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I've loved every second of this wondrous event. That said, I doubt anyone gets a foot of snow "DC proper." What bothered me yesterday was the knee jerk reaction from the board know-it-alls when the hi-Rez NAM suggested less snow than other models. Mr. Chill did say that he had concerns about an earlier end to the event, which seems to be playing out. Keep in mind when you point a finger at a weenie, you've got 3 (and maybe more) fingers pointing back at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I got death banded for an hour or so this morning, so ended up with 5.5"...snow stopped around 9am. Some people laughed at me when I said this would happen. I bet you will get another band and push to 7 and have the best totals in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm just under 4". I said yesterday I would be surprised if I got less than 6". Personal bust unless the last hurrah does something unexpected. With that being said, this storm had little precedence to go off of. There wasn't much "remember the last time we had a storm like this..." to help shape the forecast beyond models. We all suspected the dry artic air pressing in could pose problems but nobody could say with any certainty how it would play out. Looking upstream yesterday afternoon and last night had prolific rain/sleet/thunder etc. Heck, Memphis has 2"+ of rain. That's usually a good sign for us to get heavy precip. In the end, the culprit is the very dry arctic air doing its dirty work. It was underestimated and undermodeled. Next time it's in play with some sort of similar setup some year in the future we can look back to this and use it as data to help shape the forecast. yet the changeover was late as the GFS and Euro had us basically changing over around 1-1:30AM, so it was a double whammy of sorts managing to screw us on both ends anyway, those that went with below consensus forecast totals were right.....and dare I say "again"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2 inches here on the money. It has stopped for the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dry slot has come. 4 inches. Underperformed but not a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dry slot really closing in on DC quickly now. Edit - I see it is trying to fill back in. Hope you guys can squeeze out another inch or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 At what point are there too many models and too many tools. The amount of available guidance seems to be growing at an incredible rate. Are we already at the point of overkill. Quality will always destroy quantity. I understand all these models serve diff. purposes but are all these short range models really necessary. Is too much money being wasted. Seems to me that it's getting out of control. Also seems it may prevent young mets just getting out of school from reaching their full potential and learning their craft the old fashioned way. Curious to see what others think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 best snow of the day here right now. might make 4". that's good news for us to your east then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snow has been shutoff for 30mins or so. Still stuck at about 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbook Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I just measured 5" near Oakton, Virginia and steady snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snowed for about an hour then stopped about the time it went below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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