North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, pretty low here at 3 inches, all things considered, even with lowered expectations. Probably have to put this in the bust category. Maybe this means my area can cash in on the one next week as payback... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This. They were fairly awful with this one. Even as recently as an hour ago they still had the RIC-EZF area getting 6-8 and it looks like its going to dry slot there pretty soon from the west. Yep. Things were looking good here in RIC, but I suspect we'll be done in the next hour unless we get some serious backbuilding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOL this storm has made people cry from NYC to Richmond. A little OT, but did anyone hear those reports of 9" of sleet in Kentucky? That's unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like Baltimore is going to start filling back in next, here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The dry area on radar is the real deal. It hasn't snowed a flake here in well over an hour. I also wonder if the stuff on radar to the west is real or if it is showing up simply because it's further from the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This. They were fairly awful with this one. Even as recently as an hour ago they still had the RIC-EZF area getting 6-8 and it looks like its going to dry slot there pretty soon from the west. they are terrible models due to their unreliability....some storms great and others shiating the bed I said as much to Ian last night when the HRRR forecasted 10" while he was supposed to already have 3" on the ground and had ip/rn falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The record on bumping totals the night before a snow is pretty poor. And given people are generally more open to busting high than low... might be worth considering in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't want to pollute this thread..but I'm referring to snow maps posted when they can be shaky at best. I did not have to forecast this event...but there is a lot that goes into forecasting snow amounts....it ain't as easy as those snow maps look. There are those that rip and read those...and then those that get into the science of it. I thought the CWG forecast yesterday morning was good. The 10-14 seemed over the top. It's never an easy call with this arctic air pressing south and taking the under sometimes is the way to go...but again..I did not have to forecast this one. I still think this is a great event for you...better then the altostratus up here. Fair enough. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe we could stop talking about yesterday's busted forecasts for nonsense 12"+ totals and actually enjoy what's falling outside right now? Just an idea. bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This has been an awesome event...and for those who feel that forecasts didn't work out probably need to read the disco threads more carefully. Many highly skilled mets and skilled enthusiats had a lot of discussion regarding the up and downsides to this event. The NWS had my area in the 4 -8 zone which is verifying here. I was hoping like a weenie for the upside, but I went to bed knowing that was less likely. 4+ inches of snow in March with temps in the low teens is a rare treat. Thanks for the time and energy to those who posted in the model thread. Now off to shovel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If you stop snowing for any period of time its going to be tough to rebound...the dry air comes quick...even if you get radar returns to come back, I think its tough to get much accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Also, as much flak as the NAM gets.. it often models the edges best. It seems it will win in the short term here to some degree at least, tho it was too gung ho last night perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Reposting my final call numbers. Did not do a revised final call despite models being solid for 5-8" areawide. DCA: 4.5" BWI: 2.9" IAD: 4.7" I have to give you props great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Up here in Philly I've followed the HRRR all season, we've had so many events, and it has done pretty poorly during the mix-events. It calculates sleet as snow fall at a 10:1 ratio...I would shy away from its snowfall accumulation maps during mix events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOL this storm has made people cry from NYC to Richmond. A little OT, but did anyone hear those reports of 9" of sleet in Kentucky? That's unreal. This storm was a joke up here. Only 0.5 after 12+ inches were modeled for a few days by the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Handy1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Reston area has been snowing non stop since early this morning. As of now there is no sign of a letup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's March and I'm going to try and use the leaf blower to clear 3" of snow. Now if only we can get BWI to hit 4 tonight for the all-time March record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If you stop snowing for any period of time its going to be tough to rebound...the dry air comes quick...even if you get radar returns to come back, I think its tough to get much accumulate. it has stopped snowing , I,m under 4 in and its over , Very disappointing, but thats weather. onto spring now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 If you stop snowing for any period of time its going to be tough to rebound...the dry air comes quick...even if you get radar returns to come back, I think its tough to get much accumulate. there's probably a 1000-2000' layer of dry air that is eating that snow to our west that in most other circumstances, would be looking savory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The dry area on radar is the real deal. It hasn't snowed a flake here in well over an hour. I also wonder if the stuff on radar to the west is real or if it is showing up simply because it's further from the radar. Looks like were gonna find out in the next half hour. Just got done sledding with my son. Go do it if you can. Solid ice on the hills with snow on top makes for some fast runs. Also takes a toll on this 45 year old body. Snow had basically stopped for about the past half hour. I am just under 4 inches and 17 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Also, as much flak as the NAM gets.. it often models the edges best. It seems it will win in the short term here to some degree at least, tho it was too gung ho last night perhaps. Pretty sure the NAM's sim. radar did a good job for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 radar filling in around baltimore but traffic cameras are not showing snow reaching the ground, at least not around the southwest side of the beltway into hoco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I got death banded for an hour or so this morning, so ended up with 5.5"...snow stopped around 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 dry slot is really trying not to be dry... some spots look to be safe for now, metro doesn't. I still have small flakes coming down moderately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOL. Good one. It's not easy at all. With all our education and training we are imperfect at best. As difficult as a job as you guys have, i think you do a very good job. If you analyze everyones job with a microscope like everyone does to your job here, of course you will find imperfections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golly Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2.8" of rice crispies in Queenstown...20F Moderate intensity all morning with some drifting.. Even though we're under performing a bit, the week long anticipation buzz was pretty fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Spoke too soon on the visibility front. Intensity has picked back up as temps start to approach 20F. Hoping that's a sign that the dry slot won't materialize as much here in the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Pretty sure the NAM's sim. radar did a good job for up here. sim rad from here on out (today) may not turn out to be a very useful tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The days of pretty simulated radar images and weenie snow maps are making the science worse. Weenies getting expectations too high. Agreed, but I don't think that addresses the point. If things end up as is looking likely, then this was quite the bust on total snowfall by professional forecasters pretty much up and down the board. It is what it is, and while I don't agree with people getting upset about it, I do think it's fair to point it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Have 3.5" so far, if nothing else blossoms that will be my final. For 3.5" i really enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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