mdhokie Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I would say they are...has been ripping snow in Herndon for past 1.5 hours. nova along i-66 might be the region's jackpot if that band continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The forecasting hasn't been poor, either. That i disagree with, if you simply look back at the FINAL CALLS of most forecasters, whether on this board on other, the FINAL CALLS, those that were not updating after nowcasting came into play, were off an average of 30-40% in total accums. I am very happy with todays snow, especially in March, but how can you disagree? What are you basing that on? I am talking about mostly PRO forecasters, is it wrong to call out the inconsistencies with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hardly awful...20 mile shifts have huge implications during split flow regimes and storms with sharp northern edge. Just because you didn't get your 15" of snow on the 240 HR GFS doesn't give you the ability to sling mud. it hasn't been so much the dry air imo as it has been the fact that this was generally a system that was weakening as it heads east. still a nice little march event even without the thundersnow talk materializing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The days of pretty simulated radar images and weenie snow maps are making the science worse. Weenies getting expectations too high. Very valid point - imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The days of pretty simulated radar images and weenie snow maps are making the science worse. Weenies getting expectations too high. need to generate the clicks and $$$. Kind of a downside to social media/everyone's an expert type of world we live in these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Most of them base their forecasts on the model guidance, which wasn't exactly great with this storm. This was a storm with high bust potential from the get go. These things happen. Let it go and enjoy the snow. That i disagree with, if you simply look back at the FINAL CALLS of most forecasters, whether on this board on other, the FINAL CALLS, those that were not updating after nowcasting came into play, were off an average of 30-40% in total accums. I am very happy with todays snow, especially in March, but how can you disagree? What are you basing that on? I am talking about mostly PRO forecasters, is it wrong to call out the inconsistencies with them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That i disagree with, if you simply look back at the FINAL CALLS of most forecasters, whether on this board on other, the FINAL CALLS, those that were not updating after nowcasting came into play, were off an average of 30-40% in total accums. I am very happy with todays snow, especially in March, but how can you disagree? What are you basing that on? I am talking about mostly PRO forecasters, is it wrong to call out the inconsistencies with them? Unless you predicted the dry slot, I don't think you can talk. Models were in consensus for 6-10. I'll probably hit the very low end on that. News forecasters did great for once, lots of us were in there 4-8 and that is going to turn out pretty good. Only rogue forecasters like DT, calling for 12+, really busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like returns from the west may fill in where the snow hole is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Visibility has improved mightily in the last ten minutes or so. Can see the outlines of the hills around me! Still moderate snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Frederick snow shield is STRONG! Snow shall not pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You should never have been expecting 10-14". Guidance put that idea to rest 24hrs ago. Enjoy this, it's a great storm. Those 10-14 amounts were scaled back midday yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That i disagree with, if you simply look back at the FINAL CALLS of most forecasters, whether on this board on other, the FINAL CALLS, those that were not updating after nowcasting came into play, were off an average of 30-40% in total accums. I am very happy with todays snow, especially in March, but how can you disagree? What are you basing that on? I am talking about mostly PRO forecasters, is it wrong to call out the inconsistencies with them? As I said, it is physically impossible to forecast every development at the mesoscale level. Ok? Do you think you could do a better job than the pros? If so, did you foresee the dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 that's why I said "may" be reinforcements I can't find any traffic cams over the area in N WV that has the darker greens to confirm it's snowing traffic cams in W MD show little, if anything, falling I'm under dark green on that radar and getting nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 People always think they can do better until they actually have to do it and then they suck. LOL. Good one. It's not easy at all. With all our education and training we are imperfect at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Unless you predicted the dry slot, I don't think you can talk. Models were in consensus for 6-10. I'll probably hit the very low end on that. News forecasters did great for once, lots of us were in there 4-8 and that is going to turn out pretty good. Only rogue forecasters like DT, calling for 12+, really busted. fair enough, mostly just looking for some discussion about the issues with forecasting this year. That being said, as I type, it is ripping in Arlington and the DrySlot seems to be stalling if not slowling back building, so what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2 degrees in Johnstown. 5 in Oakland. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 While on one hand we can be bitter that we're not seeing the type of accumulations forecasted, especially those fantasy maps from 2 days ago, just think about the cold-nature of this storm. 3 or 4" of frozen powder that sticks to everything is a lot better to me than 8" of wet slop where you constantly hear drip, drip, drip (like last March). True that. This cold weather is fantastic, it is 16 degrees with light snow. I might even managed 4 inches after all. That was lower end. 3-4 inches of snow in March is a great storm Its a great stats padder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The days of pretty simulated radar images and weenie snow maps are making the science worse. Weenies getting expectations too high. Not totally fair. While a great many of us are not pro mets and might be considered weenies, just take a look at some of the pro forecast totals. I am in the CWG's 7-11 inch range. Before the advent of the dreaded dry slot it is/was very doubtful that I would come close to the low end of 7". Until 8am this morning I was in the 8-12" slot from the pros on channel 9. I am not complaining. I love this snow. I love all snow. The fact that it is in March is icing on the cake. But the fact is the forecast were a little over done, generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Definitely looking like there is more to go after the snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR and RAP didnt seem to have a good handle on the dry air coming in as quick as it did. They didnt have the central MD precip shutting off till 1-2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 fair enough, mostly just looking for some discussion about the issues with forecasting this year. That being said, as I type, it is ripping in Arlington and the DrySlot seems to be stalling if not slowling back building, so what do I know. About to say, Arlington might end up sort of jackpotting this. The band is temporarily stalled over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Meh, about 2.5" in Severna Park AA county. I'm not disappointed. I'll take any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Might get to 5 to verify low end.... Honestly disappointed with the flake size and intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Most people in dc probably won't hit the low end of what the winter storm warning still says (6-10) . Despite this I wouldn't rate this as a big bust. With the cold temps and wind road conditions probably won't improve too much throughout the day and it's good that most schools and the Feds were closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe we could stop talking about yesterday's busted forecasts for nonsense 12"+ totals and actually enjoy what's falling outside right now? Just an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like northern maryland is going to get screwed the most from the snow hole, Winchester seemed to dodge the bullet. At least a few more hours of snow to go. Incoming from the west, DC may dodge the hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm under dark green on that radar and getting nothing. that's sort of what I expected in light of the W MD cams showing nothing obviously a dry layer has intruded and eating up the snow maybe, if we're lucky, those of us to the east who never stopped snowing may be able to cash in.....maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Darkening skies again and returns beginning to fill back in. I'm not ready for this to end yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This. They were fairly awful with this one. Even as recently as an hour ago they still had the RIC-EZF area getting 6-8 and it looks like its going to dry slot there pretty soon from the west. HRRR and RAP didnt seem to have a good handle on the dry air coming in as quick as it did. They didnt have the central MD precip shutting off till 1-2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Not totally fair. While a great many of us are not pro mets and might be considered weenies, just take a look at some of the pro forecast totals. I am in the CWG's 7-11 inch range. Before the advent of the dreaded dry slot it is/was very doubtful that I would come close to the low end of 7". Until 8am this morning I was in the 8-12" slot from the pros on channel 9. I am not complaining. I love this snow. I love all snow. The fact that it is in March is icing on the cake. But the fact is the forecast were a little over done, generally speaking. I don't want to pollute this thread..but I'm referring to snow maps posted when they can be shaky at best. I did not have to forecast this event...but there is a lot that goes into forecasting snow amounts....it ain't as easy as those snow maps look. There are those that rip and read those...and then those that get into the science of it. I thought the CWG forecast yesterday morning was good. The 10-14 seemed over the top. It's never an easy call with this arctic air pressing south and taking the under sometimes is the way to go...but again..I did not have to forecast this one. I still think this is a great event for you...better then the altostratus up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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