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March 2-3 Obs Thread


Herb@MAWS

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Light to moderate snow since 3 AM.  I'll call it 3" though it's impossible to measure since it is extremely wind-blown here  We always underperform in QPF and over-perform w/ wind here..  Not exactly what I was hoping for, but at least it's cold.  14F w/ snow in March is pretty rare. 

 

Not sure of the flake type, but it has the consistency of sand.  Suprisingly heavy to shovel, and maybe that helps to explain the very pedestrian accumulations (other than the typical Shen Valley lack of QPF).

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This feels like an old school mid-winter snowstorm with plenty of cold, wind blowin' and plenty of good snow falling. What are your thoughts about the dry slot to the north of DC? How does something like that develop and do you think that fills in over time?

 

Well one of the reasons why I wasn't bullish on 10-14" (and sounds like CWG wasn't either) was because of this push to the SE. When the QPF gradient is nearby and the whole system is getting pushed SE.....might be time to ease off the gas pedal of a foot or more. The processes like frontogenesis and WAA sort of get squashed or only spike up briefly before its overwhelmed. However, this is an awesome snow event in early March with temps near 10F in some areas. That's incredible.

 

That dryslot is probably going to push south, but it might slow a bit as WAA tries to continue in the mid levels as noted by the WSW-ENE echoes.  It's possible it might try to fill in a bit, but it does look like a bit of a downslope contributor too.  It does look like it slowed a bit,

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how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful

Active winters are fun for us but not for forecasters..Its been a very difficult winter to forecast..lot of things in play. That said, I dont think the forecasting has been terrible...The models, well that has not been great to say the least.

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how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful

 

That was always a concern, and the last few model cycles have certainly pointed that out (the trend for a more tighter N-S moisture gradient, heavier axis farther south).  I've said this yesterday: in the more frontogenetic events like these (flatter wave, weaker surface reflection), you're either cold enough to snow on one end, but lacking in the QPF department, or in the QPF bullseye on the other end, yet having to wait longer for the changeover to snow.  It has always seemed like a 4-8" type event, though certainly with that 8-10" potential along that one narrow corridor that is closer to the QPF max, yet can changeover sooner than later.  Bottom line is that whenever you're bringing this degree of arctic air in, which ties in with the deep layer drying, the shutoff valve is usually sooner than later on the northern end, which includes those of us north of I-66 and US-50.

 

Update from WPC: that band is beginning to increase the flake size here at work (College Park).  Haven't been out to measure, but I figure we're good for about 2-3" so far.

 

Meanwhile my poor wife is stuck at home with our 5 kids!  :)

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