weathergeek Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Now getting some small flakes in Reston instead of the pixie dust at pretty strong rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I am, snow is completely shut off right now. Holy big black blob of nothingness! If it does not fill in we are capped out at 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful You should probably calm down. It's awesome out there right now. Forecasting has been decent this year IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 22 degrees and ripping snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Light to moderate snow since 3 AM. I'll call it 3" though it's impossible to measure since it is extremely wind-blown here We always underperform in QPF and over-perform w/ wind here.. Not exactly what I was hoping for, but at least it's cold. 14F w/ snow in March is pretty rare. Not sure of the flake type, but it has the consistency of sand. Suprisingly heavy to shovel, and maybe that helps to explain the very pedestrian accumulations (other than the typical Shen Valley lack of QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It has really lightened up. I went from moderate to nothing within 2 minutes about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 What does leesburg and Herndon have? I am at 4" and it is ripping snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like i didn't miss much. In 6 hours you will all wish you were with me at Disney yacht club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 heavy band of snow moving through salisbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like i didn't miss much. In 6 hours you will all wish you were with me at Disney yacht club Already jealous... headed to Tampa late month though. Picking up a bit here to less light... still believe I can get to five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Who broke the lwx radar link? Brighter skies. Light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful Dude, you can't accurately predict every mesoscale feature, no one can. Is this a troll post? This has been a great storm for early March. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I've probably got SN for another 30 minutes, and so does most of the area. There seem to be two bands coming from the north, hopefully they hold together and can give us a little more after the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 30 with SN here. Bordered on +SN for a while around 9. Changeover was really quick this morning. Closing in on an inch, if I'm not already there yet. Because Richmond actually usually gets snow? My long-term average is ~14", as is the case for most folks around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This feels like an old school mid-winter snowstorm with plenty of cold, wind blowin' and plenty of good snow falling. What are your thoughts about the dry slot to the north of DC? How does something like that develop and do you think that fills in over time? Well one of the reasons why I wasn't bullish on 10-14" (and sounds like CWG wasn't either) was because of this push to the SE. When the QPF gradient is nearby and the whole system is getting pushed SE.....might be time to ease off the gas pedal of a foot or more. The processes like frontogenesis and WAA sort of get squashed or only spike up briefly before its overwhelmed. However, this is an awesome snow event in early March with temps near 10F in some areas. That's incredible. That dryslot is probably going to push south, but it might slow a bit as WAA tries to continue in the mid levels as noted by the WSW-ENE echoes. It's possible it might try to fill in a bit, but it does look like a bit of a downslope contributor too. It does look like it slowed a bit, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful Active winters are fun for us but not for forecasters..Its been a very difficult winter to forecast..lot of things in play. That said, I dont think the forecasting has been terrible...The models, well that has not been great to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like i didn't miss much. In 6 hours you will all wish you were with me at Disney yacht club I wish I were there, id be fishing and relaxing on the beachSent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful That was always a concern, and the last few model cycles have certainly pointed that out (the trend for a more tighter N-S moisture gradient, heavier axis farther south). I've said this yesterday: in the more frontogenetic events like these (flatter wave, weaker surface reflection), you're either cold enough to snow on one end, but lacking in the QPF department, or in the QPF bullseye on the other end, yet having to wait longer for the changeover to snow. It has always seemed like a 4-8" type event, though certainly with that 8-10" potential along that one narrow corridor that is closer to the QPF max, yet can changeover sooner than later. Bottom line is that whenever you're bringing this degree of arctic air in, which ties in with the deep layer drying, the shutoff valve is usually sooner than later on the northern end, which includes those of us north of I-66 and US-50. Update from WPC: that band is beginning to increase the flake size here at work (College Park). Haven't been out to measure, but I figure we're good for about 2-3" so far. Meanwhile my poor wife is stuck at home with our 5 kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe shutting off here. If so, I am at 3 inches . Would get me to 40 on the year I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 snow still falling here at a light/barely mod clip but the sky is brightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Time to shovel is suppose...perhaps that will get some more bands through here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Near 4" in Columbia. Looks like that gap might reach me soon. Have some dendrites mixing in, but mostly columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbook Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I measured about 4" near Oakton, VA. We have some good snow rates now. Here's a shot a current shot of radar and I put an X in Fairfax County where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 18.9 degrees, mod-heavy snow just measured 3 inches. Definitely going to end up being a high impact event despite the low totals due to the extremely low temps. Roads are a mess. In the end I probably won't crack 4 inches but it's still amazing out there for early march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Maybe shutting off here. If so, I am at 3 inches . Would get me to 40 on the year I think. I need 3.5" to get to 50" so I may need another event! And who would have ever thought we'd see 40 to 50" of snow this winter?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 17 heavy pixi dust. Power has flickered on and off a few times. 3.5 inches so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow what a bust in AA co. NWS had 10-14" yesterday. Im at 2" and will be lucky to see 4 with whats left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 21.9, still snowing hard but small flakes, maybe 2" on deck. Winds a little calmer, still gusting occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could all the forecasters miss the dry slot that seems to be pushing in, forecasting this year has been awful Awful? Really? I don't think that is a fair assessment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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