yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Changeover has been talked about with incredible detail for hours. 2 at the earliest but most likely 3-5am for the corridor. Saying accum snow is washing down the drain at 1:30 makes no sense This. I don't know why there is so much whining in here right now. Most of the RAPs had DCA changing over at 3am to snow... or even just after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 35.2. Mod rain. A Lot warmer than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sleet and 32.4 just 2.5 mi north of the beltway halfway between 270 and 95. Going to sleep for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Now hearing some pingers in derwood md (n Rockville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snowing now, few pings here and there but it's mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This. I don't know why there is so much whining in here right now. Most of the RAPs had DCA changing over at 3am to snow... or even just afterThe few hours right before snow are the worst. I don't think we are losing anything now but radar seems to like the south idea this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 33 and light rain near Annapolis. Come on cold, get down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Changeover has been talked about with incredible detail for hours. 2 at the earliest but most likely 3-5am for the corridor. Saying accum snow is washing down the drain at 1:30 makes no sense I think it does Euro is down to .55 at BWI from 1AM until the end...who knows when it switches now so start subtracting qpf from .55" 12Z, otoh, had a rimming snow sounding at 1PM and .68" from 1AM until the end so it is less for sure but, like I said earlier, if 0Z NAM ends up being right, we'll be fine in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sleet has begun to mix in on Rockville/Bethesda line. 32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I just kinda had a sinking feeling.. not because of the HRRR snowmap but because we're going to need to thump hard probably and not sure I love CONUS radar at the moment. Perhaps I've just been awake too much again. March snow is scary.. well, all snow around here is scary. Gonna grab some zzzzs. I wish us all luck. Agreed. I just see that northern push of the colder, drier air on the national radar loop and I just think, ugh, don't you dare! Let's face it, we are shifting into an arctic airmass. That means the window of opportunity before we dry out the atmosphere can only last so long. This explains why there are rarely 10+ inch events from these things because if you're cold enough to snow right away, you won't have the QPF for a big event, and if you're in the QPF maxima (central VA), so much is wasted on rain. I didn't "see" this until I came into work and was able to load my dProg/dT procedures to see that the models outside the NAM/RAP/SREF over the past 3 runs are trending toward a drier northern side, from DCA-north, and as such a tighter moisture gradient. That means an average of around 0.35" after 12Z, but what if the trends aren't done yet (?) Bottom line is we may very well be in the "sweet spot" for max snow axis, but it could very well be closer to 5-7" for most of us vs. 8+. I suppose I'm okay with that. Frontogenetic systems like this are nice because of the banding potential, but we just don't have the duration that we would normally (potentially) have with a Miller A or deepening coastal system that has an elongated, pivoting CCB and trowal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 all snow. 100% sleet here still. I'm only about 5 miles or so south of you. Should flip soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Moderate rain, 32.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 your point and click indicates you won't change over until 5 am? apples and oranges models vs. point and click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 your point and click indicates you won't change over until 5 am?I'm just a impatient weenie. Nothing to see here. Move on people. Rain and 33.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Currently 2.5 miles north of Beltway on Georgia and 50%rain/50%sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Moderate sleet mixed with some snow- Ashburn, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 33.2/31, still all rain, but almost there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Seeing some flakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Agreed. I just see that northern push of the colder, drier air on the national radar loop and I just think, ugh, don't you dare! Let's face it, we are shifting into an arctic airmass. That means the window of opportunity before we dry out the atmosphere can only last so long. This explains why there are rarely 10+ inch events from these things because if you're cold enough to snow right away, you won't have the QPF for a big event, and if you're in the QPF maxima (central VA), so much is wasted on rain. I didn't "see" this until I came into work and was able to load my dProg/dT procedures to see that the models outside the NAM/RAP/SREF over the past 3 runs are trending toward a drier northern side, from DCA-north, and as such a tighter moisture gradient. That means an average of around 0.35" after 12Z, but what if the trends aren't done yet (?) Bottom line is we may very well be in the "sweet spot" for max snow axis, but it could very well be closer to 5-7" for most of us vs. 8+. I suppose I'm okay with that. Frontogenetic systems like this are nice because of the banding potential, but we just don't have the duration that we would normally (potentially) have with a Miller A or deepening coastal system that has an elongated, pivoting CCB and trowal. Excellent points!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WTOP weather bug has dropped below 32...let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sleeting finally, but still 70% rain. Edit: Now back to all rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Few flakes but really 70/30% sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Few flakes but really 70/30% sleet. Awesome, guess we must be next then. I've been flipping between rain and sleet for the past 5min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mesonet page showing freezing temps approaching DC. Some upper 20s into Northern Loudoun. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?map=lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sleeting with a lot of tiny snow flakes flying about in Luray. (not in Dulles tonight) Rain has ceased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Finally a ping on the window. 33.2℉ Come on storm. I'm going to have nightmares of that epic bust last March while I sleep tonight. I know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Currently 2.5 miles north of Beltway on Georgia and 50%rain/50%sleet. On foot or in flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mangled flakes dropping like meteors mixing in with sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mangled flakes dropping like meteors mixing in with sleet Good news. Still not a pinger in NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vitaminmawc Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 snow in middle river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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