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March 2-3 Obs Thread


Herb@MAWS

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Changeover has been talked about with incredible detail for hours. 2 at the earliest but most likely 3-5am for the corridor. Saying accum snow is washing down the drain at 1:30 makes no sense

 

This.  I don't know why there is so much whining in here right now.  Most of the RAPs had DCA changing over at 3am to snow... or even just after

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This. I don't know why there is so much whining in here right now. Most of the RAPs had DCA changing over at 3am to snow... or even just after

The few hours right before snow are the worst. I don't think we are losing anything now but radar seems to like the south idea this far.
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Changeover has been talked about with incredible detail for hours. 2 at the earliest but most likely 3-5am for the corridor. Saying accum snow is washing down the drain at 1:30 makes no sense

I think it does

Euro is down to .55 at BWI from 1AM until the end...who knows when it switches now so start subtracting qpf from .55"

12Z, otoh, had a rimming snow sounding at 1PM and .68" from 1AM until the end

so it is less for sure

but, like I said earlier, if 0Z NAM ends up being right, we'll be fine in the end

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I just kinda had a sinking feeling.. not because of the HRRR snowmap but because we're going to need to thump hard probably and not sure I love CONUS radar at the moment. Perhaps I've just been awake too much again.  March snow is scary.. well, all snow around here is scary.  Gonna grab some zzzzs.  I wish us all luck.

Agreed. I just see that northern push of the colder, drier air on the national radar loop and I just think, ugh, don't you dare!  Let's face it, we are shifting into an arctic airmass.  That means the window of opportunity before we dry out the atmosphere can only last so long.  This explains why there are rarely 10+ inch events from these things because if you're cold enough to snow right away, you won't have the QPF for a big event, and if you're in the QPF maxima (central VA), so much is wasted on rain.  I didn't "see" this until I came into work and was able to load my dProg/dT procedures to see that the models outside the NAM/RAP/SREF over the past 3 runs are trending toward a drier northern side, from DCA-north, and as such a tighter moisture gradient.  That means an average of around 0.35" after 12Z, but what if the trends aren't done yet (?)

 

Bottom line is we may very well be in the "sweet spot" for max snow axis, but it could very well be closer to 5-7" for most of us vs. 8+.   I suppose I'm okay with that.  Frontogenetic systems like this are nice because of the banding potential, but we just don't have the duration that we would normally (potentially) have with a Miller A or deepening coastal system that has an elongated, pivoting CCB and trowal.

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Agreed. I just see that northern push of the colder, drier air on the national radar loop and I just think, ugh, don't you dare! Let's face it, we are shifting into an arctic airmass. That means the window of opportunity before we dry out the atmosphere can only last so long. This explains why there are rarely 10+ inch events from these things because if you're cold enough to snow right away, you won't have the QPF for a big event, and if you're in the QPF maxima (central VA), so much is wasted on rain. I didn't "see" this until I came into work and was able to load my dProg/dT procedures to see that the models outside the NAM/RAP/SREF over the past 3 runs are trending toward a drier northern side, from DCA-north, and as such a tighter moisture gradient. That means an average of around 0.35" after 12Z, but what if the trends aren't done yet (?)

Bottom line is we may very well be in the "sweet spot" for max snow axis, but it could very well be closer to 5-7" for most of us vs. 8+. I suppose I'm okay with that. Frontogenetic systems like this are nice because of the banding potential, but we just don't have the duration that we would normally (potentially) have with a Miller A or deepening coastal system that has an elongated, pivoting CCB and trowal.

Excellent points!!

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