harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 9Z SREF mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Todays weather is probably going to upset people even more. Its currently 9C here and sunny. Grass is showing all over place and people have ditched the winter jackets. Even if we only see 10-20cm of snow its pretty good for mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 9Z SREF mean: Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The RGEM remains inconsistent as with the NAM. Latest run trends even drier than previous runs, and is now the driest among all the models. Went from 10-15mm to 7.5-10mm on the latest run per meteomaps scale. GFS remains consistent. 12z Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Natasha Ramsahai thinks southern Halton and southern Peel Regions should be upgraded to warnings Natasha Ramsahai @CityNatasha 1m West end more snow than the east. I'm thinking Burl-Oak-Mississ may need to be upgraded from sp. wx statement fm @environmentca #citystorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wow 15Z run will be key to watch and see how closely it follows the 12Z NAM (ie how much spread will there still be). This Euro run will also be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Todays weather is probably going to upset people even more. Its currently 9C here and sunny. Grass is showing all over place and people have ditched the winter jackets. Even if we only see 10-20cm of snow its pretty good for mid march. Today's afternoon high: 12 Tomorrow's afternoon "high": -7 Lol. People are going to be so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12Z GEM a bit drier than its 00Z, only dumps about 10 cm for southern sections and 5 cm for those north of the 407 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Should be able to cash in on some good ratios in the latter half of the storm. 12Z Euro text for YYZ: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z MAR11 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKWED 06Z 12-MAR -0.2 -2.5 1006 85 92 0.00 543 537 WED 12Z 12-MAR -1.1 -6.3 1004 92 97 0.02 538 535 WED 18Z 12-MAR -4.6 -9.7 1001 83 99 0.34 531 530 THU 00Z 13-MAR -9.4 -15.7 1006 71 95 0.24 522 518THU 06Z 13-MAR -15.1 -17.6 1010 70 20 0.01 515 508 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 BLSN warning posted for Lambton County and Hamilton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Depending on the technique...18z NAM showing about 8-10" for YYZ. Obviously nothing close to what it was indicating yesterday but in the midst of that disappointment it may get lost that this should still be a very nice storm for us. Could put this winter in "A" territory for those of us who have currently assigned 13-14 a B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Depending on the technique...18z NAM showing about 8-10" for YYZ. Obviously nothing close to what it was indicating yesterday but in the midst of that disappointment it may get lost that this should still be a very nice storm for us. Could put this winter in "A" territory for those of us who have currently assigned 13-14 a B. I may as well make a final call. I'll go with 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Depending on the technique...18z NAM showing about 8-10" for YYZ. Obviously nothing close to what it was indicating yesterday but in the midst of that disappointment it may get lost that this should still be a very nice storm for us. Could put this winter in "A" territory for those of us who have currently assigned 13-14 a B. With the blowing and drifting, this is going to be a pretty awesome storm if it pans out like the NAM/GFS and euro are showing. HRRR gets the party started around 5am as that fronto band begins to shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Updated 18z NAM cobb has 9.7" of snow for the GTA... for those who missed it. Mean ratio is 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 With the blowing and drifting, this is going to be a pretty awesome storm if it pans out like the NAM/GFS and euro are showing. HRRR gets the party started around 5am as that fronto band begins to shift north. Updated 18z NAM cobb has 9.7" of snow for the GTA... for those who missed it. Mean ratio is 15:1. Do you believe the GFS and NAM over the Canadian RGEM? Is EC being too conservative, in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Updated 18z NAM cobb has 9.7" of snow for the GTA... for those who missed it. Mean ratio is 15:1. December 14th...EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning, but with a mid-event upgrade. Feb 5th..............EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning, but with a mid-event upgrade. March 12th....EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning.....TO BE DETERMINED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Do you believe the GFS and NAM over the Canadian RGEM? Is EC being too conservative, in your opinion? EURO is about double the RGEM as well. Given that things appear to be further north at the sfc, I don't think there's reason to give the RGEM much credence at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 December 14th...EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning, but with a mid-event upgrade. Feb 5th..............EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning, but with a mid-event upgrade. March 12th....EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning.....TO BE DETERMINED. I think I know how this is gonna go... especially considering the fact that these fronto bands like to end up a bit further north in the end when a system coming out of the southern branch has intense WAA out ahead of it (e.g feb 5th). Hard to go against the euro/NAM/GFS consensus which essentially have the same amounts in the QPF department. Also nice to see consistency regarding ratios on the GFS and NAM cobb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 December 14th...EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning, but with a mid-event upgrade. Feb 5th..............EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning, but with a mid-event upgrade. March 12th....EC with the heaviest snow south of us. No watch, no initial warning.....TO BE DETERMINED. They've failed numerous times this season already and if this one fails as well, EC will lose all its remaining credibility. A special weather statement is never really distributed properly through out the media and is usually taken lightly by the public. Weather advisories like the USA sets up would be an improvement IMO. The one storm I will give them credit for is the Ice Storm. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I think I know how this is gonna go... especially considering the fact that these fronto bands like to end up a bit further north in the end when a system coming out of the southern branch has intense WAA out ahead of it (e.g feb 5th). Hard to go against the euro/NAM/GFS consensus which essentially have the same amounts in the QPF department. Also nice to see consistency regarding ratios on the GFS and NAM cobb. Great model consistency among the top models in terms of QPF. Lets see how this storm plays out tomorrow. Ratios should be good as temperatures look to be falling through out the day tomorrow. Feb 5th was a nice set-up for areas north of the 401 thanks to the defo. bands. Whats your initial thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 They've failed numerous times this season already and if this one fails as well, EC will lose all its remaining credibility. A special weather statement is never really distributed properly through out the media and is usually taken lightly by the public. Weather advisories like the USA sets up would be an improvement IMO. The one storm I will give them credit for is the Ice Storm. Lets see! In terms of the public, they manage to get away with these conservative calls w/o losing much credibility because most people just don't know the difference between 10 and 20cm on the ground and don't take the time to measure. We also hear the YYZ storm total post storm, which ends up way lower then man measured spots and acts as a validator of sorts for the conservative calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Great model consistency among the top models in terms of QPF. Lets see how this storm plays out tomorrow. Ratios should be good as temperatures look to be falling through out the day tomorrow. Feb 5th was a nice set-up for areas north of the 401 thanks to the defo. bands. Whats your initial thoughts? I have thrown the 15-25cm range out on twitter and think that's a good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 In terms of the public, they manage to get away with these conservative calls w/o losing much credibility because most people just don't know the difference between 10 and 20cm on the ground and don't take the time to measure. We also hear the YYZ storm total post storm, which ends up way lower then man measured spots and acts as a validator of sorts for the conservative calls. This is an excellent point. Often I think EC is basing their snowfall projections based on the nipher. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 In terms of the public, they manage to get away with these conservative calls w/o losing much credibility because most people just don't know the difference between 10 and 20cm on the ground and don't take the time to measure. We also hear the YYZ storm total post storm, which ends up way lower then man measured spots and acts as a validator of sorts for the conservative calls. Great points. That could also be the reason why they haven't changed the Nipher yet . The Nipher does the dirty work for their conservative calls haha. Can't blame EC though! The budget cuts really hurt them. I hope the Government provides better funding for them. OT but given your profile name, did you experience the blizzard of 96 first hand? Lol. I have thrown the 15-25cm range out on twitter and think that's a good call at this point. Awesome! I'm currently going for 15-20cm in the GTA with amounts closer to 25cm, locally 30cm around Hamilton and the Niagara region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Great points. That could also be the reason why they haven't changed the Nipher yet . The Nipher does the dirty work for their conservative calls haha. Can't blame EC though! The budget cuts really hurt them. I hope the Government provides better funding for them. OT but given your profile name, did you experience the blizzard of 96 first hand? Lol. Awesome! I'm currently going for 15-20cm in the GTA with amounts closer to 25cm, locally 30cm around Hamilton and the Niagara region. Nope... I usually watch the old blizzard coverage on youtube in summer/fall when winters almost ready to return. Sort of a tradition of mine... silly reason but that's the name I decided to go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 They just issued a blizzard warning for all of WNY. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY824 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014NYZ001-002-010-011-085-120830-/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.W.0006.140312T0600Z-140313T0600Z//O.NEW.KBUF.BZ.W.0002.140312T0600Z-140313T0600Z/NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-SOUTHERN ERIE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE824 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDTTHURSDAY......WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDTTHURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUETHROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST THREATFOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING ONWEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OFWHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTINGOF SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT...6 TO 11 INCHESWEDNESDAY...AND 3 TO 6 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TOSTORM TOTALS OF 9 TO 17 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNINGINTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAYMORNING...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW BECOMING HEAVY BY LATEMORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILLMAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY WILL REDUCED TONEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADWAYS DURING THEPEAK OF THE STORM ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OFSNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDSAND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUTCONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IFYOU ABSOLUTELY MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU.IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURETHAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLYVENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED ANDUSED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOTBLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACESAND WATER HEATERS.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INBUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAGBUFWX&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Depending on the technique...18z NAM showing about 8-10" for YYZ. Obviously nothing close to what it was indicating yesterday but in the midst of that disappointment it may get lost that this should still be a very nice storm for us. Could put this winter in "A" territory for those of us who have currently assigned 13-14 a B. If we received 5-10 cm i would've have maintained my A- for this winter in end. If we receive over 15 cm surely that would make this winter an A, eh? Get to do some heavy radar watching tomorrow regardless. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 0z NAM/21z SREF's come NW. NAM dumps ~10-12" on YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 0z NAM/21z SREF's come NW. NAM dumps ~1' on YYZ. Do you think that is a realistic outcome? Often, as we know, the NAM overdoes things, but, then again, it has usually toned things down by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Do you think that is a realistic outcome? Often, as we know, the NAM overdoes things, but, then again, it has usually toned things down by this time. Going to come down to nowcasting. It is a good sign as it did add ~0.1" of QPF compared to 18z, even with some initilization error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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